Davidgoh18
2021-11-11
Market swing expected
Broad Selloff Signals Inflation Fears Are Warming
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On Wednesday, there","content":"<p>For months, there has been relatively little investor angst about rising prices. On Wednesday, there were signs that might be changing.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 240 points, or 0.7% while the technology-fueled Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 264 points, or 1.7%. In the government bond market, longer-term Treasury securities, which generally are most sensitive to inflation expectations, fell in price, as did short-term Treasurys, which tend to anticipate interest-rate moves by the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest rise in a year. When bond prices fall, yields rise.</p>\n<p>Wednesday’s price moves—following a Labor Department report showing the consumer price-indexrose at a 6.2% annual rate, its fastest pace since 1990—suggest that investors are preparing for both higher inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed over the next two years. But the declines weren’t dramatic, traders and analysts said, especially given that the inflation figures were higher than expected.</p>\n<p>Long-term bond prices have been resilient for weeks and may have been due for a pullback, they said, suggesting that Wednesday’s selling may not herald a sea change in a market whose strength has surprised many this year.</p>\n<p>“This is not a panic reaction,” said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading Group in Chicago. He said trading volume for long-term Treasurys was just a bit higher than on usual days. “It’s much too soon to assume the Fed will quicken the pace” of its expected moves to boost interest rates over the next year or so, Mr. Brien said.</p>\n<p>Away from Wall Street, angst is growing about rising prices. As the Christmas season approaches, expectations are growing that consumers will feel more inflation pressures, among the reasons polls show President Biden’s popularity dropping.</p>\n<p>“Just about everything is going to cost consumers more this holiday season,” Wells Fargo analysts said Wednesday.</p>\n<p>The Biden administration is vowing to address rising inflation, aware that voters are becoming increasingly worried about how higher prices may eat into their paychecks. After the inflation report was released Wednesday, the White House issued a statement from Mr. Biden saying, “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.”</p>\n<p>Selling in the bond market initially focused on short-term U.S. Treasurys, which would be most directly affected if the Fed raises rates over the next few years, though it soon spread to longer-term securities, like the 10-year note and 30-year bond.</p>\n<p>Since about June, when Fed officials emphasized that their tolerance for inflation was limited, bond investors have been quick to sell short-term Treasurys in response to high inflation numbers. But enthusiasm for longer-term bonds, which usually react to long-term inflation expectations, has been fairly strong.</p>\n<p>High inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the purchasing power of their fixed-interest payments and can spur monetary authorities to push short-term interest rates higher. But many investors have viewed expected moves by the Fed to raise interest rates over the next two years as likely to reduce the risk of runaway inflation, making long-term bonds potentially attractive.</p>\n<p>The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled Wednesday at 1.558%. That’s still well below its 2021 high of 1.749% set at the end of March and even its recent peak of 1.674% reached on Oct. 21, underscoring how investors have kept buying these bonds.</p>\n<p>For now, investors still expect inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, but then drop to a level that is around the Fed’s 2% annual target, as bottlenecks in the economy ease and the central bank removes support for the economy. Investors acknowledged that Wednesday’s report showed inflation concerns can’t be dismissed, with prices rising across a broad range of categories, including those like housing costs that tend to be sticky.</p>\n<p>Still, many continued to argue that inflation will moderate starting next year, at the very least because next year’s prices will no longer be compared to last year’s deeply depressed levels. They said that pressures are likely to ease once the holiday shopping period is over and as producers gradually ramp up the supply of goods to meet red-hot demand.</p>\n<p>Scott Kimball, co-head of U.S. fixed income for BMO Global Asset Management, said his team bought Treasurys on Wednesday to take advantage of the higher yields. Inflation, he said, should still be viewed as a transitory phenomenon tied to the quirks of the pandemic economy. As economic stimulus wanes and “we get back to an economy that’s producing GDP based on its own real output potential…inflation will fall back in line,” he said.</p>\n<p>Stocks remain near all-time highs, after a run that has taken the major U.S. indexes to 153 record closes this year, the most since 2017. Even on Wednesday, some investors were generally blasé about the inflation report.</p>\n<p>Aaron Weitman, who runs New York-based hedge fund CastleKnight Management LP, which invests in both stocks and bonds, didn’t do much in reaction to the inflation data.</p>\n<p>“I didn’t see it as surprising,” Mr. Weitman said. “We’ve been getting cautious about inflation and interest-rate risks for months.”</p>\n<p>The relaxed reaction in stocks suggested an optimism that corporate earnings will continue to grow as prices rise, and that interest rates over the next year or so won’t rise enough to crimp shares. Though widely held, it’s a view some have found perplexing.</p>\n<p>“The stock market keeps whistling past the inflation and monetary tightening that is upon us,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Broad Selloff Signals Inflation Fears Are Warming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBroad Selloff Signals Inflation Fears Are Warming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-11 15:33 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/broad-selloff-signals-inflation-fears-are-warming-11636585869?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For months, there has been relatively little investor angst about rising prices. On Wednesday, there were signs that might be changing.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 240 points, or 0.7% while ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/broad-selloff-signals-inflation-fears-are-warming-11636585869?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/broad-selloff-signals-inflation-fears-are-warming-11636585869?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118910262","content_text":"For months, there has been relatively little investor angst about rising prices. On Wednesday, there were signs that might be changing.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 240 points, or 0.7% while the technology-fueled Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 264 points, or 1.7%. In the government bond market, longer-term Treasury securities, which generally are most sensitive to inflation expectations, fell in price, as did short-term Treasurys, which tend to anticipate interest-rate moves by the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest rise in a year. When bond prices fall, yields rise.\nWednesday’s price moves—following a Labor Department report showing the consumer price-indexrose at a 6.2% annual rate, its fastest pace since 1990—suggest that investors are preparing for both higher inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed over the next two years. But the declines weren’t dramatic, traders and analysts said, especially given that the inflation figures were higher than expected.\nLong-term bond prices have been resilient for weeks and may have been due for a pullback, they said, suggesting that Wednesday’s selling may not herald a sea change in a market whose strength has surprised many this year.\n“This is not a panic reaction,” said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading Group in Chicago. He said trading volume for long-term Treasurys was just a bit higher than on usual days. “It’s much too soon to assume the Fed will quicken the pace” of its expected moves to boost interest rates over the next year or so, Mr. Brien said.\nAway from Wall Street, angst is growing about rising prices. As the Christmas season approaches, expectations are growing that consumers will feel more inflation pressures, among the reasons polls show President Biden’s popularity dropping.\n“Just about everything is going to cost consumers more this holiday season,” Wells Fargo analysts said Wednesday.\nThe Biden administration is vowing to address rising inflation, aware that voters are becoming increasingly worried about how higher prices may eat into their paychecks. After the inflation report was released Wednesday, the White House issued a statement from Mr. Biden saying, “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.”\nSelling in the bond market initially focused on short-term U.S. Treasurys, which would be most directly affected if the Fed raises rates over the next few years, though it soon spread to longer-term securities, like the 10-year note and 30-year bond.\nSince about June, when Fed officials emphasized that their tolerance for inflation was limited, bond investors have been quick to sell short-term Treasurys in response to high inflation numbers. But enthusiasm for longer-term bonds, which usually react to long-term inflation expectations, has been fairly strong.\nHigh inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the purchasing power of their fixed-interest payments and can spur monetary authorities to push short-term interest rates higher. But many investors have viewed expected moves by the Fed to raise interest rates over the next two years as likely to reduce the risk of runaway inflation, making long-term bonds potentially attractive.\nThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled Wednesday at 1.558%. That’s still well below its 2021 high of 1.749% set at the end of March and even its recent peak of 1.674% reached on Oct. 21, underscoring how investors have kept buying these bonds.\nFor now, investors still expect inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, but then drop to a level that is around the Fed’s 2% annual target, as bottlenecks in the economy ease and the central bank removes support for the economy. Investors acknowledged that Wednesday’s report showed inflation concerns can’t be dismissed, with prices rising across a broad range of categories, including those like housing costs that tend to be sticky.\nStill, many continued to argue that inflation will moderate starting next year, at the very least because next year’s prices will no longer be compared to last year’s deeply depressed levels. They said that pressures are likely to ease once the holiday shopping period is over and as producers gradually ramp up the supply of goods to meet red-hot demand.\nScott Kimball, co-head of U.S. fixed income for BMO Global Asset Management, said his team bought Treasurys on Wednesday to take advantage of the higher yields. Inflation, he said, should still be viewed as a transitory phenomenon tied to the quirks of the pandemic economy. As economic stimulus wanes and “we get back to an economy that’s producing GDP based on its own real output potential…inflation will fall back in line,” he said.\nStocks remain near all-time highs, after a run that has taken the major U.S. indexes to 153 record closes this year, the most since 2017. Even on Wednesday, some investors were generally blasé about the inflation report.\nAaron Weitman, who runs New York-based hedge fund CastleKnight Management LP, which invests in both stocks and bonds, didn’t do much in reaction to the inflation data.\n“I didn’t see it as surprising,” Mr. Weitman said. “We’ve been getting cautious about inflation and interest-rate risks for months.”\nThe relaxed reaction in stocks suggested an optimism that corporate earnings will continue to grow as prices rise, and that interest rates over the next year or so won’t rise enough to crimp shares. Though widely held, it’s a view some have found perplexing.\n“The stock market keeps whistling past the inflation and monetary tightening that is upon us,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/870649570"}
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