Unpopular Opinion: Apple's growth over the next 10 years is going to significantly decline unless radical innovation is successfully done.

*Disclaimer: This is my own speculation and opinion to kick off a discussion about Apple's future.*

No one here is a stranger to Apple's monstrous cash generation and profitability. It's been a behemoth of a stock and has basically guaranteed impressive returns for those long on it. With around a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap, it is the largest in the world. But has it gotten too big for its own good?

Apple is more or less known only for its iPhone and I don't know how anyone else feels but with the latest iPhone 13, nothing really feels much different or innovative. Better battery life? Camera? Storage? That's cool I guess, but nothing new that would make it stand out from its competitors. Apple has seen declining market share in the smartphone sector and it's a brutally competitive market. Nokia used to completely dominate the market back in the day and suddenly it became non-existent as it couldn't keep up with the innovation. It's like they got so cocky they were at the top and it backfired on them hard. I feel Apple is in a similar position where they are overestimating their strength with their absurd product prices and new releases like the iPhone 13 being more of the same. This is not sustainable.

Because Apple is so tremendously huge, it also makes it difficult for them to grow further without delving into something completely new that at the same time is big enough to move the needle. If Apple keeps doing what it's doing with new watches, air pods, iPhones, tablets, or what have you where not much is changing and they keep charging outrageous prices, they are bound to lose consumers. I don't think their die-hard, cult-like fans can or will keep them propped up.

In my opinion, if Apple wants to facilitate further growth over the next 10 years, they need to do something insane. They have the cash. We've heard talks about an iCar; that is something radical that will drive growth if pulled off successfully. But it's extremely difficult, risky, and timely to get into that business. They need to do it right, otherwise I would expect hefty share price decline over the years.

I genuinely think Apple's a fantastic company but I don't like the current direction they are heading and I have a hard time believing they are going to continue to grow as they have been if they continue doing the same stuff they've always been doing. I want to see them branch out to something completely revolutionary.

What are your thoughts on Apple's future?

EDIT: Really appreciate all of the discussion and counter points being raised. Learning lots!

$Apple(AAPL)$