thekang
2021-09-27
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ASML: It's Time To Take Profits
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866822925,"tweetId":"866822925","gmtCreate":1632754809667,"gmtModify":1632798059258,"author":{"id":3579391473717940,"idStr":"3579391473717940","authorId":3579391473717940,"authorIdStr":"3579391473717940","name":"thekang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/257a55b2b4eff5b143f883be20deac55","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":26,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like comment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like comment</p></body></html>","text":"Like comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866822925","repostId":1123391790,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123391790","pubTimestamp":1632754543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123391790?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: It's Time To Take Profits","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123391790","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.</li>\n <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>\n <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>We wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Competitive Advantages</b></p>\n<p>What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p>\n<p>Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p>\n<p>While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p>\n<p>The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:</p>\n<p>ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p>\n<p>These are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: It's Time To Take Profits</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: It's Time To Take Profits\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 22:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nASML is firing on all cylinders, but the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123391790","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.\nWe are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nPart of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:\n\n Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.\n\nWe also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.\nData by YCharts\nWhile shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.\nData by YCharts\nPart of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.\nData by YCharts\nAs revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.\nData by YCharts\nValuation\nWhen we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.\nData by YCharts\nOne thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.\nData by YCharts\nBack in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.\nData by YCharts\nFinally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.\nData by YCharts\nCompetitive Advantages\nWhat we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.\nLooking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:\nWhile we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.\nThe investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:\nASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.\nThese are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nNot only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nFor these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.\nConclusion\nWhile ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866822925"}
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