CPCat
2021-10-23
DOD certification is indeed a good moat. How about 150x forward earnings? Seems very high to me...
Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection
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Seems very high to me...","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858991340","repostId":1177255738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177255738","pubTimestamp":1634953820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177255738?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>\n <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>\n <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir & US Army Contract</b></p>\n<p>In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the <i>Capability Drop 2</i> (CD-2) program.</p>\n<p>For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p>\n<p>Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p>\n<p>The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p>\n<p>Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p>\n<p>This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p>\n<p>The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p>\n<p>Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p>\n<p>One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p>\n<p>Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p>\n<p>Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p><b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-23 09:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":82,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/858991340"}
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