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2021-10-21
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The Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853224428,"tweetId":"853224428","gmtCreate":1634817603384,"gmtModify":1634817603507,"author":{"id":4095597275576180,"idStr":"4095597275576180","authorId":4095597275576180,"authorIdStr":"4095597275576180","name":"Bluetulips","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/163bf3f9b5557861c41eb8f015f3f4e8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Pls like and comment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Pls like and comment</p></body></html>","text":"Pls like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853224428","repostId":1130678563,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130678563","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634817113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130678563?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 19:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130678563","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe have already reached or even torn down historically comparable levels for many multiples","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We have already reached or even torn down historically comparable levels for many multiples.</li>\n <li>In this respect, the number of those warning of a bubble and the risk of a crash is increasing. I, too, find it challenging to accept market-wide share price potential.</li>\n <li>However, the point is not to be right, but to accept things as they are.</li>\n <li>Any warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment.</li>\n <li>If the fear of missing out (FOMO) prevails, we could even face a further parabolic rise in the equity markets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>So many bubble signs, but one indicator is missing</b></p>\n<p>Extreme debt, high margin, and high valuations combined with low yields contain all the ingredients for a crash. The rise in margin debt has been a cause for concern for many months. For a long time now, we have reached or even torn down historically comparable limits here. Already in November of last year, we reached values corresponding to those of the years 1999 and 2008. Margin has now risen by another 30 percent or more. Total margin debt is now over $911 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0acff5a296f6de44e7045505ebdef87\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Data byYCharts</p>\n<p>Even measured by GDP, margin debt was recently 4 percent, almost 50 percent higher than in 2000 and 2008. Many bulls then point out that margin debt measured by the S&P 500 market cap is not historically very high. That may be true, but it is nonetheless a fallacy since, in a bubble scenario, the market cap of the S&P 500 automatically rises as well. If we take a closer look, we see that the margin debt/market cap ratio is on par with the dot.com bubble.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f52ff1c9a18b2a694e2c8635b634b85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>I have often written about this setting (here,here, andhere)and thus fundamentally take a somewhat bearish stance. Nevertheless, I am not alone in this. Everywhere we see voices warning against exaggeration and overheating. The problem, however, is that this does not give us the setting that is necessary for a bubble: FOMO. Currently, we are in a limbo where bulls and bears are pretty evenly matched. However, the lack of FOMO could be overcome in the coming months and quarters. If we take such indicators as a basis for a forecast, we could see another real rally in the short term.</p>\n<p><b>Huge lack of FOMO</b></p>\n<p>Any warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment. Instead, a bubble is characterized bynarratives of greed, euphoria, and optimism. Currently, we do not see such a sentiment. For example, the number of bullish investors is below 40 percent. In contrast, 30 percent of investors are bearish.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e2b986b957860224306a033a7e36197\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Compared with August, we see a significant deterioration in sentiment here. InAugust, the share of bearish investors was just 24 percent, while the share of bullish investors remained roughly the same.</p>\n<p>A high share of pessimism indicates that a good buying moment has come. So based on this sentiment indicator, now is a better time to buy stocks than a few months ago.</p>\n<p>That we are far from historical euphoria is also shown by a comparison with 2000, when the share of bullish investors was over 70 percent, almost twice as high as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbe55f2e0036a9a0cc6af8620707919\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Total money fund assets also underscore the rather passive stance of investors. Total assets currently stand at$4.52 trillion, only slightly below thelevel of the COVID-19 crash in 2020. Why is this important? As I explained in my previous article, money market funds are...</p>\n<blockquote>\n ...managed with the aim of maintaining a highly stable asset base through liquid investments. These include cash securities and bonds with a term of less than 12 months. Although private retailers also have access, they are only a minority. The money market fund market is dominated by institutional investors, i.e. banks, insurance companies, and governments.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Therefore, total money fund assets show us how much cash is on the sidelines and available for short periods. In addition, we see that institutional investors in particular (colloquially referred to as \"smart money\") are still hesitant to act and hold a large portion of cash or liquid assets.</p>\n<p><b>Enough substance to fuel FOMO</b></p>\n<p>So, on the one hand, we have a lack of euphoria and a rather pessimistic mood among investors. Likewise, we see that investors have a lot of short-term liquidity. In addition, we should keep an eye on the bond market. Here, too, investors are currently withdrawing money ona massive scale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77526487456626eb0328ba81aa8e639\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Data byYCharts</p>\n<p>The reason for the sell-off is the fear of rising interest rates. Rising interest rates mean higher interest coupons for upcoming new bonds. These higher interest coupons are matched by the yields on bonds already issued. As a result, the price falls. According to a Bloomberg article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The BofA [Global Fund Manager] survey finds that more asset allocators are underweight bonds than at any time since they started asking the question some 20 years ago:\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45c333ab53e7cbde78b07b7e09a43b86\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n</blockquote>\n<p>So, there is still a lot of money on the sidelines, and capital is being pulled out of other asset classes.</p>\n<p>The signs are good that this money will flow into the equity markets and trigger FOMO among investors. It could be a mixture of a wait-and-see attitude by central banks and a self-fulfilling prophecy that pushes more and more investors into equities. This would continue a trend that has been ongoing since the financial crisis. Since 2009, the share ratio among investors has risen steadily and is now at 2000 levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ea83bed5c5e15504045b37f77aea31\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>In this respect, a new narrative is already making the rounds: TINA RIF = There Is No Alternative - Resistance Is Futile. If this narrative prevails, then this justifies a violent parabolic upswing in short to medium term. Because in the end, everyone wants to take the last dance at the party and rushes onto the dance floor. Then we have FOMO's self-fulfilling prophecy and will inevitably see rising stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>We might have seen the start of the final rally</b></p>\n<p>We also see an interesting formation in the chart of the S&P 500, which indicates a strong movement towards the north. It seems that we have seen a picture-perfect bear trap with the price losses of recent weeks. Next to it, we see a bullish W formation. For chartists, these are two relatively bullish indicators. So it might be that we have already seen the start of the final rally in this impressive long-term bull market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ee68f5a38b94660195a35a81fdc052\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Trading View</i></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Even if it is difficult for me to accept market-wide price potential from a fundamental point of view, it is not about being right but about accepting things as they are. It is clear that we lack investment alternatives and that equity is an easily accessible asset class for investors. Conversely, we cannot speak of a bubble when sentiment is so balanced or even trending bearish. However, if the markets overcome the lack of FOMO, we could well see a further rise in equity prices in the coming months. It is clear that not everyone is part of the party, and we all know that the party is at its best when everyone is wildly escalating on the dance floor like there is no tomorrow. For now, investors should therefore be cautious about actively going short.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-21 19:51 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461007-market-to-start-bubble-peak-run-parabolic-upside-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWe have already reached or even torn down historically comparable levels for many multiples.\nIn this respect, the number of those warning of a bubble and the risk of a crash is increasing. I,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461007-market-to-start-bubble-peak-run-parabolic-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461007-market-to-start-bubble-peak-run-parabolic-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130678563","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe have already reached or even torn down historically comparable levels for many multiples.\nIn this respect, the number of those warning of a bubble and the risk of a crash is increasing. I, too, find it challenging to accept market-wide share price potential.\nHowever, the point is not to be right, but to accept things as they are.\nAny warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment.\nIf the fear of missing out (FOMO) prevails, we could even face a further parabolic rise in the equity markets.\n\nSo many bubble signs, but one indicator is missing\nExtreme debt, high margin, and high valuations combined with low yields contain all the ingredients for a crash. The rise in margin debt has been a cause for concern for many months. For a long time now, we have reached or even torn down historically comparable limits here. Already in November of last year, we reached values corresponding to those of the years 1999 and 2008. Margin has now risen by another 30 percent or more. Total margin debt is now over $911 billion.\n\nData byYCharts\nEven measured by GDP, margin debt was recently 4 percent, almost 50 percent higher than in 2000 and 2008. Many bulls then point out that margin debt measured by the S&P 500 market cap is not historically very high. That may be true, but it is nonetheless a fallacy since, in a bubble scenario, the market cap of the S&P 500 automatically rises as well. If we take a closer look, we see that the margin debt/market cap ratio is on par with the dot.com bubble.\n\nI have often written about this setting (here,here, andhere)and thus fundamentally take a somewhat bearish stance. Nevertheless, I am not alone in this. Everywhere we see voices warning against exaggeration and overheating. The problem, however, is that this does not give us the setting that is necessary for a bubble: FOMO. Currently, we are in a limbo where bulls and bears are pretty evenly matched. However, the lack of FOMO could be overcome in the coming months and quarters. If we take such indicators as a basis for a forecast, we could see another real rally in the short term.\nHuge lack of FOMO\nAny warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment. Instead, a bubble is characterized bynarratives of greed, euphoria, and optimism. Currently, we do not see such a sentiment. For example, the number of bullish investors is below 40 percent. In contrast, 30 percent of investors are bearish.\n\nCompared with August, we see a significant deterioration in sentiment here. InAugust, the share of bearish investors was just 24 percent, while the share of bullish investors remained roughly the same.\nA high share of pessimism indicates that a good buying moment has come. So based on this sentiment indicator, now is a better time to buy stocks than a few months ago.\nThat we are far from historical euphoria is also shown by a comparison with 2000, when the share of bullish investors was over 70 percent, almost twice as high as at present.\n\nTotal money fund assets also underscore the rather passive stance of investors. Total assets currently stand at$4.52 trillion, only slightly below thelevel of the COVID-19 crash in 2020. Why is this important? As I explained in my previous article, money market funds are...\n\n ...managed with the aim of maintaining a highly stable asset base through liquid investments. These include cash securities and bonds with a term of less than 12 months. Although private retailers also have access, they are only a minority. The money market fund market is dominated by institutional investors, i.e. banks, insurance companies, and governments.\n\nTherefore, total money fund assets show us how much cash is on the sidelines and available for short periods. In addition, we see that institutional investors in particular (colloquially referred to as \"smart money\") are still hesitant to act and hold a large portion of cash or liquid assets.\nEnough substance to fuel FOMO\nSo, on the one hand, we have a lack of euphoria and a rather pessimistic mood among investors. Likewise, we see that investors have a lot of short-term liquidity. In addition, we should keep an eye on the bond market. Here, too, investors are currently withdrawing money ona massive scale.\n\nData byYCharts\nThe reason for the sell-off is the fear of rising interest rates. Rising interest rates mean higher interest coupons for upcoming new bonds. These higher interest coupons are matched by the yields on bonds already issued. As a result, the price falls. According to a Bloomberg article:\n\n The BofA [Global Fund Manager] survey finds that more asset allocators are underweight bonds than at any time since they started asking the question some 20 years ago:\n\n\n\n\nSo, there is still a lot of money on the sidelines, and capital is being pulled out of other asset classes.\nThe signs are good that this money will flow into the equity markets and trigger FOMO among investors. It could be a mixture of a wait-and-see attitude by central banks and a self-fulfilling prophecy that pushes more and more investors into equities. This would continue a trend that has been ongoing since the financial crisis. Since 2009, the share ratio among investors has risen steadily and is now at 2000 levels.\n\nIn this respect, a new narrative is already making the rounds: TINA RIF = There Is No Alternative - Resistance Is Futile. If this narrative prevails, then this justifies a violent parabolic upswing in short to medium term. Because in the end, everyone wants to take the last dance at the party and rushes onto the dance floor. Then we have FOMO's self-fulfilling prophecy and will inevitably see rising stock prices.\nWe might have seen the start of the final rally\nWe also see an interesting formation in the chart of the S&P 500, which indicates a strong movement towards the north. It seems that we have seen a picture-perfect bear trap with the price losses of recent weeks. Next to it, we see a bullish W formation. For chartists, these are two relatively bullish indicators. So it might be that we have already seen the start of the final rally in this impressive long-term bull market.\n\nSource: Trading View\nConclusion\nEven if it is difficult for me to accept market-wide price potential from a fundamental point of view, it is not about being right but about accepting things as they are. It is clear that we lack investment alternatives and that equity is an easily accessible asset class for investors. Conversely, we cannot speak of a bubble when sentiment is so balanced or even trending bearish. However, if the markets overcome the lack of FOMO, we could well see a further rise in equity prices in the coming months. It is clear that not everyone is part of the party, and we all know that the party is at its best when everyone is wildly escalating on the dance floor like there is no tomorrow. For now, investors should therefore be cautious about actively going short.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853224428"}
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