Anyone who is aware of this stock market's history and its share price metrics sees the PE ratio of the market is too high, putting it at a historically high, almost certainly unsustainable level. That goes for the amazing company we have here, too.
Yes, this is an amazing company, and has been managed extremely well, for two decades now.The patent moat, the adoption rate by hospitals, the strategy of instrument lifespans and how they protect themselves against copycats making compatible replacement instruments, capitalizing on all aspects of the machine, including surgeon training, and then going into leasing of the da Vincis, they've been phenomenal.
This company growth still has legs, too, since it is still not near market saturation.But the PE ratio in the 70s troubles me. This is high, even for ISRG. It is at this level for three main reasons,
IMO:
1. They still do not have market competition, and won't have for the foreseeable future. Investors know this, and it gives them confidence and comfort;
2. Their profitability and sales growth has been consistent and dependable. Who wouldn't expect thst to continue? I know I do, because I have followed, studied and invested in ISRG since spring 2005;
3. Congress has been pumping/propping the economy by printing and distributing money like crazy, irresponsibly running up the nation's debt, and people have been spending it on goodies and assets, including stocks, while interest rates have been kept down by the Fed. ISRG looks very safe compared to many if not most other stocks, so up goes the price, faster than its earnings growth, taking the PE ratio up with it.
I do own shares, but not as many as some relatives, and have dry powder in preparation for a sobering drop as this government spending comes to an end, which it inevitably will, the Fed begins interest rate hikes, and an "event" stampedes investors to the exits. When this happens, the current party of inflated PE ratios will come to an end, and after things pull back, the PE ratios will come back down to more historical norms. This is inevitable, but for now, it is like being at a party, where the liquor is still flowing, and the music hasn't yet stopped. But it will. This nation is so far in debt that it cannot sustain this "irrational exhuberance" (credit: Alan Greenspan) much longer.Tell me I'm wrong, but in your gut, I think you know we're all waiting for an economic gut-punch, one that is not momentary.And it will present huge opportunities for investors with cash. But now? Let PEG rates help you grasp the present state of stocks. I don't mean to bum anyone out, and if you disagree, fine, but myself, I'm not eager to own stocks that are priced so high. It is like the diving board of buying seems to have had several boards nailed to it to extend its reach.
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