That "Novavax Cranks It Up" article from Seeking Alpha is the smartest, most complete thing that has ever been written about the company's prospects. It took my already iron-clad convictions about Novavax and wrapped them in graphene and diamonds. It makes a very clear, conservative case for $22B revenue in 2022 and a $600 share price by the end of 2022.
If you read that article and stay short or sell your long position I really think you need to stop making investment decisions and buy a very broad index mutual fund and cross your fingers.
I'm serious about this. If you read that article - obviously written by someone easily 10x more thoroughly researched than you - and sell or stay short, you should not be making investment decisions for yourself. You aren't able to understand an intelligent, detailed investment thesis and are simply gambling on coin flips based on your opinion and emotions. That's a recipe for disaster. You'll get lucky sometimes, but eventually most gamblers get really burned.
PS - For those of you who agree that maybe Novavax will make $22B next year, but that demand for covid vaccines will wane and revenue will dry up, this is true to SOME extent. Some people will not get covid boosters moving forward. That's fair. But many people will continue to get boosters and Novavax is also 2 years ahead of anyone else on a combo flu / covid vaccine and have a stand alone flu vaccine, RSV, malaria collaboration, etc. on the way to make up some of the difference.
So, hypothetically, if their covid revenue is cut in half to $11B (unlikely), for example, I'm sure they will be making $5B from other products and be at approximately $16B from 2023 on. Even at that level they are severely undervalued by today's share price and market cap. This may be the piece you are missing - that they are only earning covid revenue right now, but that will change. You're on borrowed time if you continue to ignore quality research and information. 🤷♂️$Novavax(NVAX)$
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