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2021-11-03
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The Fed's Two-Day Meeting Is About to End. What to Expect.
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What to Expect.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118295005","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergen","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergency bond buys is a foregone conclusion; what’s not so certain is how officials will handle still-rising inflation and rising expectations for more aggressive interest-rate policy.</p>\n<p>First, on tapering: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, is widely expected to say they will this month begin tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, expects the first reduction of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to go into effect Nov. 15. That would be just after the New York Fed publishes its next schedule of monthly purchases and thus the next opportunity to implement the change, she says.</p>\n<p>The bigger question, Markowska says, is whether the FOMC will keep its language about inflation being “transitory.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated since the economy began to reopen that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and supply-chain kinks, meaning inflation would be fleeting. But the data are increasingly undermining that view. A 39-year high in the quarterly Employment Cost Index, released last Friday, is one particularly worrisome development. Surging wages come as productivity is slowing; central bankers have been counting on a productivity boom to outpace and thus offset the impact of rising wages. The idea is that productivity growth would act as a shock absorber to cap overall inflation, but that assumption may not be so reliable.</p>\n<p>Economists are split over whether the updated FOMC statement will call inflation “transitory.” Markwoska, for her part, says she is leaning toward a “yes,” because removing it would rattle investors, unhinge the front-end of the yield curve and cause a tightening of financial conditions. “Instead, we expect the Fed to finesse the accompanying language, by acknowledging that inflation pressures have been more persistent than expected,” she says.</p>\n<p>Whether or not the policy statement reflects a change in officials’ view of inflation, Powell is sure to field questions on the topic once his press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markowska says he is likely to push back on early rate increase expectations, odds of which are rising given the incoming inflation data and rising consumer inflation expectations. Powell has directed investors’ attention toward the latter, given that inflation expectations are key to whether or not rising prices wind up sticking around. Expectations for ongoing price increases can affect consumer behavior, bringing demand forward and reinforcing inflation.</p>\n<p>At this point, the Fed is probably not comfortable with the two interest-rate increases currently priced in for next year, says Markowska. (The Fed has been emphasizing that it doesn’t plan to lift off immediately after tapering concludes, instead waiting until 2023 before raising rates). “But Powell will have to walk a very fine line,” Markowska says, “since pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations but not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve,” which is more rate-sensitive.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Two-Day Meeting Is About to End. 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What to Expect.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-03 16:54 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-inflation-here-to-stay-fed-today-51635925833?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergency bond buys is a foregone conclusion; what’s not so certain is how officials will handle still-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-inflation-here-to-stay-fed-today-51635925833?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-inflation-here-to-stay-fed-today-51635925833?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118295005","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergency bond buys is a foregone conclusion; what’s not so certain is how officials will handle still-rising inflation and rising expectations for more aggressive interest-rate policy.\nFirst, on tapering: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, is widely expected to say they will this month begin tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, expects the first reduction of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to go into effect Nov. 15. That would be just after the New York Fed publishes its next schedule of monthly purchases and thus the next opportunity to implement the change, she says.\nThe bigger question, Markowska says, is whether the FOMC will keep its language about inflation being “transitory.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated since the economy began to reopen that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and supply-chain kinks, meaning inflation would be fleeting. But the data are increasingly undermining that view. A 39-year high in the quarterly Employment Cost Index, released last Friday, is one particularly worrisome development. Surging wages come as productivity is slowing; central bankers have been counting on a productivity boom to outpace and thus offset the impact of rising wages. The idea is that productivity growth would act as a shock absorber to cap overall inflation, but that assumption may not be so reliable.\nEconomists are split over whether the updated FOMC statement will call inflation “transitory.” Markwoska, for her part, says she is leaning toward a “yes,” because removing it would rattle investors, unhinge the front-end of the yield curve and cause a tightening of financial conditions. “Instead, we expect the Fed to finesse the accompanying language, by acknowledging that inflation pressures have been more persistent than expected,” she says.\nWhether or not the policy statement reflects a change in officials’ view of inflation, Powell is sure to field questions on the topic once his press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markowska says he is likely to push back on early rate increase expectations, odds of which are rising given the incoming inflation data and rising consumer inflation expectations. Powell has directed investors’ attention toward the latter, given that inflation expectations are key to whether or not rising prices wind up sticking around. Expectations for ongoing price increases can affect consumer behavior, bringing demand forward and reinforcing inflation.\nAt this point, the Fed is probably not comfortable with the two interest-rate increases currently priced in for next year, says Markowska. (The Fed has been emphasizing that it doesn’t plan to lift off immediately after tapering concludes, instead waiting until 2023 before raising rates). “But Powell will have to walk a very fine line,” Markowska says, “since pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations but not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve,” which is more rate-sensitive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841499811"}
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