This is interesting because on_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-22

This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.

American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

高芬卡FD
2021-08-22
高芬卡FD
目前而言美国突然从阿富汗撤军很大程度也是需要一定支撑。
爱雅额
2021-08-22
爱雅额
联邦调查局也得按照手续办事，不是随便就可以
斯维特斯
2021-08-22
斯维特斯
美联储加息的把戏已经玩不动了，得想想别的办法了了
虎虎生风我要赢
2021-08-22
虎虎生风我要赢
不良资产的持有率也是一项重要指标。
股谈
2021-08-22
股谈
说的什么意思，没有看明白。

发表看法

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It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"This is interesting because one would think that this is essentially sowing FUD. But I'm not sure even with historical data, we can dispel it just like that because of QE. It's all at a new different level and if anything, this supports the Feds in bringing forward tapering.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832836103","repostId":1158638011,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158638011","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629602404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158638011?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158638011","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nL","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.</p>\n<p>This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.</p>\n<p>To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.</p>\n<p>That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.</p>\n<p>So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-22 11:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nLast week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158638011","content_text":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nLast week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.\nThis should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nTo appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.\nTo analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.\nThat’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.\nTo be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.\nNevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.\nSo there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":227,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5606706,"commentId":"5606706","gmtCreate":1629613185450,"gmtModify":1629613185450,"authorId":9000000000000214,"author":{"id":9000000000000214,"idStr":"9000000000000214","authorId":9000000000000214,"name":"高芬卡FD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5aa2773c996a6accd9329dd855f8e45","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832836103,"objectIdStr":"832836103","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"目前而言美国突然从阿富汗撤军很大程度也是需要一定支撑。","text":"目前而言美国突然从阿富汗撤军很大程度也是需要一定支撑。","html":"目前而言美国突然从阿富汗撤军很大程度也是需要一定支撑。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5606558,"commentId":"5606558","gmtCreate":1629612117697,"gmtModify":1629612117697,"authorId":9000000000000216,"author":{"id":9000000000000216,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorId":9000000000000216,"name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832836103,"objectIdStr":"832836103","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"联邦调查局也得按照手续办事，不是随便就可以","text":"联邦调查局也得按照手续办事，不是随便就可以","html":"联邦调查局也得按照手续办事，不是随便就可以","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5606490,"commentId":"5606490","gmtCreate":1629611482626,"gmtModify":1629611482626,"authorId":9000000000000215,"author":{"id":9000000000000215,"idStr":"9000000000000215","authorId":9000000000000215,"name":"斯维特斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa6cfc781341a2317d2cca41267dd98","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832836103,"objectIdStr":"832836103","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"美联储加息的把戏已经玩不动了，得想想别的办法了了","text":"美联储加息的把戏已经玩不动了，得想想别的办法了了","html":"美联储加息的把戏已经玩不动了，得想想别的办法了了","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5607181,"commentId":"5607181","gmtCreate":1629617648485,"gmtModify":1629617648485,"authorId":3479274801106341,"author":{"id":3479274801106341,"idStr":"3479274801106341","authorId":3479274801106341,"name":"虎虎生风我要赢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ccc06f2fcd2b9bc68f0a4c61b29f2a","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832836103,"objectIdStr":"832836103","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"不良资产的持有率也是一项重要指标。","text":"不良资产的持有率也是一项重要指标。","html":"不良资产的持有率也是一项重要指标。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5606658,"commentId":"5606658","gmtCreate":1629612675121,"gmtModify":1629612675121,"authorId":3479274805397697,"author":{"id":3479274805397697,"idStr":"3479274805397697","authorId":3479274805397697,"name":"股谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4849c004cae85c33d91f0ec81f46dbd","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832836103,"objectIdStr":"832836103","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"说的什么意思，没有看明白。","text":"说的什么意思，没有看明白。","html":"说的什么意思，没有看明白。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/832836103"}