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2021-10-10
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2022 Could Be A Great Year
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We have shortages and supply line issues that ha","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.</li>\n <li>We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.</li>\n <li>We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.</p>\n<p>What is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.</p>\n<p>We have not altered our view that S&P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.</p>\n<p>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.</p>\n<p>We still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!</p>\n<p>The Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.</p>\n<p>Again, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!</p>\n<p>We are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.</p>\n<p>The domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.</p>\n<p>Other recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.</p>\n<p>Growth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.</p>\n<p>The Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.</p>\n<p>The global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.</p>\n<p>Investment Conclusions</p>\n<p>Thursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.</p>\n<p>Then we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do <b>not</b> see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.</p>\n<p>Shortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.</p>\n<p>While we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Could Be A Great Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Could Be A Great Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-10 09:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194780749","content_text":"Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.\n\nEven though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.\nWhat is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.\nWe have not altered our view that S&P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.\nWe still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!\nThe Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.\nAgain, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!\nWe are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.\nThe domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.\nOther recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.\nGrowth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.\nThe Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.\nThe global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.\nInvestment Conclusions\nThursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.\nThen we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do not see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.\nShortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.\nThe bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.\nWhile we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/828154706"}
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