UnitedHealth may not substantially beat on costs due to Covid's unexpected delta wave. It's possible that enough nonemergency care was deferred to balance out Covid treatment costs. However, health care use had been gradually normalizing since people feared seeking treatment early in the pandemic, so it's not clear how much of an offset to expect. Second, regulatory uncertainty is at a near-term peak that probably won't recede until it's clear what Democrats will include in their social-spending reconciliation package.

The top managed care player by insured membership is a bellwether for the entire health care services industry. Its Optum division includes a massive physician and outpatient surgery empire and the technology prowess to wring inefficiency out of the health care sector. Despite those long-term strengths, there's still risk of a Covid hiccup.$UnitedHealth(UNH)$