mrzhuge
2021-10-08
Yea
Airbnb: Good Prospects Jeopardized By High Expectations
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Airbnb will be penalized severely if it underdelivers.</li>\n <li>Despite the long-term prospects, Airbnb isn’t the company for me today. I see better risk-reward elsewhere.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f89e4405d20534ffb04abe21c93360\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>hocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Investment Thesis</p>\n<p>Airbnb(NASDAQ:ABNB)was a pandemic winner from a long-term perspective. The company will see unprecedented demand over the coming months. It also benefits from secular long-term tailwinds. To cap it all off, it has clear and concrete verticals that it could easily tap to generate new revenue streams.</p>\n<p>However, expectations seem to have factored all of these benefits in. The near-term revenue estimates are high and have gotten higher as the reopening picture became clearer. The company's multiple is higher than both industry peers and category leaders, implying high expectations of the future. High expectations and high valuations open the door to large drawdowns from likely disappointments.</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, risks outweigh the rewards for me as I see better reopening plays elsewhere.</p>\n<p><b>Airbnb is a Reopening Winner Boosted by the Pandemic</b></p>\n<p>Accommodation providers were among the worst-hit losers of the pandemic. Lockdowns forced people to stay at home. Even without lockdowns, most borders were closed. And even with open borders, people were fearing the virus and didn’t travel. This unprecedented halt in demand truly tested the resiliency of the sector.</p>\n<p>Airbnb, though, managed to capitalize on the pandemic both in the short and long term. Alternate accommodation benefited from closed borders and the inability and risk of long-distance travel as well as from social distancing. Many consumers opted for nearby vacation homes where they could get to safely and didn’t need to interact with other guests or hotel staff. Airbnb, as the leading alternate accommodation player, benefited. Airbnb used 2021 to improve itself and grow its sector. It announced in early 2021 that it was going to educate the world about Airbnb, recruit more hosts, simplify the guest journey, and deliver world-class service. The plan seems to be working as evident in Airbnb’s revenue recovery. The company’s 2021 Q2 revenues were more than the most recent pre-pandemic data point of 2019 Q4 and this is extraordinary given the performance of Airbnb’s peers (all peers significantly below pre-pandemic levels, chart below). The shift to alternate accommodation arising from extraordinary factors was free advertising for Airbnb. Many people that had tried or would not try Airbnb were pushed into being a customer. Those that have had good experiences are likely to return. Airbnb’s pandemic struggles will result in long-term gains thanks to good crisis management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bb3fa959db14ded964a37401dc9632\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis</span></p>\n<p>The next leg of the pandemic is an unwind of what we’ve seen so far. With vaccination rates rising in the West and case counts inflecting lower, reopening awaits us. The reopening will see massive growth in travel. Consumers have been forced indoors for a year and a half and will make up for the lost time. The pent-up demand combined with the unused vacation days and unspent hotel points and airline miles will boost the travel industry over the coming months.</p>\n<p>Overall spending budgets will be boosted by high accumulated savings. Social distancing has dramatically decreased in-person discretionary spending, while massive government aid increased disposable incomes to bring the personal savings rate to all-time highs. These savings will melt towards discretionary purchases in the coming months and one of the wallet share winners will be travel.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a628b854734591ce062c9c245a9201cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Airbnb is well-positioned to capitalize on the reopening. The company is aware of the potential and its “single priority for 2021 has been to prepare for the travel rebound”. Many consumers will still be afraid of catching the virus despite potentially low case counts and vaccination. Additionally, a significant portion of pre-pandemic hotel preferers will opt for Airbnb. Airbnb will gain a large portion of the larger reopening wallet share. The pandemic-induced habit of using Airbnb will likely linger in the reopening.</p>\n<p>Airbnb will not only be one of the key, but also one of the first beneficiaries of the reopening. Airbnb had a major city and cross-border travel focus before the pandemic of about 50% of revenue. The company’s supply depends on hosts and hosts are in major cities. People traveling to new countries want to see landmark cities. Tourism towards major cities is disproportionally dependent on international travel. Luckily for Airbnb, major cities where we’ve seen the worst of the pandemic and international travel, especially within the West (Airbnb makes ~80% of revenues from North America and EU) will be among the earlier areas to open.</p>\n<p>One worries whether the supply is a constraint for the reopening as the number of hosts and lodging could be a limiting factor given unprecedented coming demand. But this is unlikely an issue as Airbnb has been growing its supply over the past two years while nights and experiences booked fell. Again, management is aware of the travel rebound and is doing its best to monetize it. While hotels may not be able to work at full capacity due to government mandate and won’t be able to build new rooms, excess capacity will be available at Airbnb as demand comes.</p>\n<p>Overall, despite being hurt financially by the pandemic, Airbnb is a hidden pandemic winner with long-term gains. The company is well situated to be a winner over the short term as well by capitalizing on the upcoming extraordinary travel demand.</p>\n<p><b>Airbnb Will be a More Profitable Company Going Forward</b></p>\n<p>Airbnb became a leaner company throughout the pandemic. The company cut 1,900 jobs or 25% of its workforce during the crisis and halted most non-essential spending. These cost-cutting measures should remain sticky and boost long-term profitability. Airbnb may face lower acquisition costs out of the pandemic as well. Brand value of Airbnb grew to become a household name. The company’s services will be the go-to place for travel bookings for many consumers. This will result in lower costs paid to third parties to acquire traffic. The street expects 23% EBITDA margins from the company in 2023, which is much higher than what we’ve seen so far and closer to peers. Airbnb will be more profitable thanks to the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>The Reopening Benefit is Expected</b></p>\n<p>Reopening winners are a key focus for me in the coming months. I see a lot of alpha in buying winners where consensus is lacking behind. This is a good risk-reward trade for me due to the near-term time horizon and the specific catalyst.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be what I’m looking for. If we look at consensus expectations of Airbnb we see that they reflect what I explained above. The market increased Airbnb revenue estimates with expectations of a recovery. Revenue estimates for FY22 increased by 20% since last December. I say increased with expectations of recovery due to the front-load of revisions. The rate of positive revisions declines as further out the estimates go (charts below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad3d3c8df5d1b861b36eee38bee10f5\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"104\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8564e09b5c2d77f0ad0e2db50b29144\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c6b27f9bf316f8d16b667576fc3d21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcebffd8c9af4c6d1d63655c454f9c99\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ</span></p>\n<p>Consensus isn’t getting sandbagged here as well. Some companies manage Street expectations by setting the bar low to anchor analyst estimates and then over-deliver, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be one of those companies currently. Analysts were expecting 20% more revenue than the $1.65 bn Airbnb guided towards at the time of guidance and are up to 24% currently for Q3. This is a much larger gap than one would normally see and shows the high expectations of Airbnb.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e454f555a0b0ff085397cfddf30380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"173\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ</span></p>\n<p>The consensus is aggressive. All the upward revisions have resulted in revenue expectations that are 35%, 80%, and 120% higher than what Airbnb achieved in the last twelve months for FY22, FY23, and FY24 respectively. Airbnb could of course deliver, it is perfectly situated to deliver amazing quarters, but it isn’t the reopening play for me. I see better risk-reward in other reopening winners with much easier bars to clear (see my articles on Ulta(NASDAQ:ULTA),Revolve(NYSE:RVLV), and Square(NYSE:SQ)).</p>\n<p><b>Airbnb Price is High</b></p>\n<p>If Airbnb has depressed multiples, it could deliver even if it falls short of consensus estimates. Conversely, high multiples mean high confidence in future growth and are a broad reflection of positive sentiment. Positive sentiment is generally a disadvantage as it's much easier to turn a positive sentiment neutral or negative with an earnings miss than it is to turn it even more positive with a blowout quarter.</p>\n<p>I want to judge Airbnb’s valuation as fairly as possible. The market values future growth for a name like Airbnb, which I agree with. I factor in future growth by looking at multiples over CY23 revenues and the speed of growth between CY20 and CY23 in my comparison. Bulls also like to separate Airbnb from its peers as a category leader, which I don’t agree with. It may be not the same as a hotel, but it sure is a substitute in the eyes of the consumer in the overwhelming majority of cases (for now at least). But I will also compare its multiples and growth expectations to other category leaders to give it the benefit of the doubt.</p>\n<p>The valuation is rich. For me, Booking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG)is a good comparison. Booking also is a travel marketplace with fast growth and a bright future. One might say that Booking is also richly priced as it is well above its peers, but Airbnb is on another level trading at more than double where Booking is despite having similar growth expectations. Booking is more profitable, having EBITDA margins of 14% vs. extremely negative margins of Airbnb (-64%), and is expected to remain significantly more profitable into the future with 37% FY23 expected EBITDA margins vs. 23% for Airbnb. Let’s not forget that rest of these companies are well situated to benefit from the reopening as well, perhaps even more so than Airbnb with hotels gaining back lost share.</p>\n<p>Sector leader comparison is kinder, but still yields the same result. Here we have DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)as the closest peer in terms of multiples, but is still significantly less expensive despite having a similar growth rate. Uber(NYSE:UBER)for example is another name that will benefit from the reopening due to its mobility and sharing focus, is trading grossly cheaper than Airbnb, while expected to grow at a similar rate.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5704bdc5cf32c4889f12fceb24245303\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis</span></p>\n<p>Airbnb is expected to trade much richer than the sector for a long time. I went and looked at when Airbnb’s extremely high multiples would compress enough to reach those of its peers thinking that the higher growth would bring them down quickly. This isn’t the case. With the current enterprise value and consensus, Airbnb will reach Booking’s next twelve-month revenue and EBITDA multiples in 5 years and earnings multiples in 7. Again, let’s not forget that Booking is also growing fast and will also compress its multiples. I see that Airbnb has clearer options to add new revenue streams but a lot of this is clearly in the price today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce82fbe26634b44aeb8417204b1ebda\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis</span></p>\n<p>Overall, I see poor risk-reward for the reopening bull thesis of Airbnb. Expectations factor in maybe not all but a good portion of outperformance over the near term. The valuation is high and has a lot of expectations built in. This makes the stock price vulnerable to changes in near-term sentiment despite the long-term nature of these expectations.</p>\n<p>Interest Rate Sensitivity</p>\n<p>Airbnb is vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. I wrote before on my views on the future of rates and the vulnerability of the growth complex in depth (hereandhere). I expect a bear steepener environment over the coming months, that is rising rates accompanied by a steepening curve. This, if correct, would result in a higher discount factor via a higher risk-free rate. A high risk-free rate will have an outsized effect on fast growth equities with far-out cash flows. Airbnb is amongst the longest duration names with a price to sales multiple of 23x. A higher discount rate would dramatically change the company valuation and, in theory, decrease the stock price.</p>\n<p><b>Excellent Prospects for the Long Term</b></p>\n<p>Despite my unattraction for the near term, Airbnb has a lot going for it. Just the shift from hotels to alternative accommodations alone should boost growth for many years to come. The company is at the beginning of its journey of gaining a significant share out of the massive global lodging market. In addition to this, Airbnb has a lot of initiatives that it can take to create new revenue streams.</p>\n<p>The easiest of these are short-term rentals. By short I mean longer than vacation stay, so from about a couple of weeks to a year or so. This is an underserved market for which there is a lot of demand. Expats, project-focused business travelers, students especially ones studying abroad, interns, and long vacationers are all target markets for such a product. It’d be easy for Airbnb to add services in this category as well, as it already has the supply and the marketing capabilities. I expect longer-term rentals to become an important category for Airbnb in the future.</p>\n<p>Airbnb could gain a larger share of value by integrating upstream. Airbnb could host or co-host. It has demand data and financial capabilities which would make it a great investor in properties. Airbnb-hosted properties would resemble private label products sold in chain supermarkets, or on Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)for that matter. I doubt that the company would prioritize this as it may push current hosts away, but I’d be surprised if Airbnb didn’t delve into hosting in the future.</p>\n<p>Airbnb could begin to sell ancillary services. Airbnb could provide cleaning services with its own cleaning crew. Cleaning is a necessity before every booking and could significantly increase monetization. Airbnb could also provide insurance for hosts. One of the main worries of people thinking of becoming hosts is damage to or loss of property. Airbnb has a lot of data on claims and could provide insurance to hosts with an efficient actuary. An insurance offer would also increase the supply of properties as well with more hosts joining the platform.</p>\n<p>There are a lot of growth levers that Airbnb could pull but I expect none in the near term. Airbnb has all of its focus on capitalizing on the travel rebound and with 25% fewer employees due to cost cuts it’s unlikely to add new products soon.</p>\n<p><b>Overall the Risk-Reward isn’t Favorable For Me (Today)</b></p>\n<p>I like Airbnb’s operations, track record, and near and short-term prospects. It’s done very well navigating through choppy times and took advantage of the pandemic with agility. I expect Airbnb to see tremendous growth over the near term and to gain a growing share of the hospitality market over the long term.</p>\n<p>However, my expectations of Airbnb seem to be reflected in Street estimates and the company’s valuation. I see high execution risk and a large potential downwards stock reaction to any disappointments but capped upside unless we see blowout quarters. Thus, I am on the sidelines on Airbnb for now.</p>\n<p><b>How I Could be Wrong Either Way</b></p>\n<p>I always want to give the entire picture in my analysis and in this section, I will try to provide how the stock price could meaningfully move higher or lower from areas I haven’t covered in the article.</p>\n<p>The consumer preference between hotels vs. alternate accommodation highly influences Airbnb. The pandemic saw the latter win. It is reasonable to expect an unwind of this trend. I didn’t mention this in my article as I think it will be gradual and the high upcoming demand will overcome the micro move. But my assumption could be wrong, consumers could overwhelmingly prefer hotels which would make life very difficult for Airbnb. Conversely, pandemic choices could remain sticky and Airbnb could keep its pandemic era gains. Consumer preferences of style of stay will be highly decisive for Airbnb in the future.</p>\n<p>The macroeconomic picture will be another deciding factor. A better than expected reopening demand will be a tide lifts all boats situation, while a subdued one would wreak havoc in the hospitality industry. A prolonged pandemic, especially in a situation with less government aid, would also significantly harm Airbnb prospects. I mentioned that I expected a rising rate environment and that Airbnb valuation would be harmed by it, the vice versa of what I wrote is true. Airbnb would greatly benefit from falling rates all else equal.</p>\n<p>Profitability will be an area to watch coming out of the pandemic. I already mentioned higher margins going forward. But these margins are still significantly below what is expected of peers (consensus EBITDA margins for CY23: Airbnb 23% vs. TripAdvisor(NASDAQ:TRIP)33%, Booking Holdings 37%). Airbnb could deliver on the upside in an environment of excess demand. Moreover, the low traffic acquisition costs I wrote about may not be in the consensus and could provide an upside. Conversely, some job cuts may have been premature and/or crisis management, and Airbnb could need to regrow its workforce contracting margins back down.</p>\n<p>Despite unlikely with the management’s reopening focus and reduced headcount, if Airbnb manages to launch one of the products I’ve mentioned, it will likely be met with a positive reaction. A new revenue stream will cause analysts to reevaluate long-term growth expectations and increase revenue estimates.</p>\n<p>Let’s not forget about the big risk facing Airbnb, regulation. A lot of cities were pressured to impose regulations on Airbnb pre-pandemic. Regulatory risks clout the future and uncertainty is always a big negative for investors. These issues resurfacing, despite the outcome, could hamper Airbnb stock.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb: Good Prospects Jeopardized By High Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb: Good Prospects Jeopardized By High Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 13:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458951-airbnb-good-prospects-jeopardized-by-high-expectations><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite the financial struggles, Airbnb is coming out of the pandemic with brighter long-term prospects than how it went in.\nNow, with the reopening and unwind of pandemic measures, Airbnb ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458951-airbnb-good-prospects-jeopardized-by-high-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458951-airbnb-good-prospects-jeopardized-by-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157362059","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite the financial struggles, Airbnb is coming out of the pandemic with brighter long-term prospects than how it went in.\nNow, with the reopening and unwind of pandemic measures, Airbnb will see unprecedented demand.\nNear-term cyclical swing benefits seem to be reflected in Street expectations and company valuation. Airbnb will be penalized severely if it underdelivers.\nDespite the long-term prospects, Airbnb isn’t the company for me today. I see better risk-reward elsewhere.\n\nhocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAirbnb(NASDAQ:ABNB)was a pandemic winner from a long-term perspective. The company will see unprecedented demand over the coming months. It also benefits from secular long-term tailwinds. To cap it all off, it has clear and concrete verticals that it could easily tap to generate new revenue streams.\nHowever, expectations seem to have factored all of these benefits in. The near-term revenue estimates are high and have gotten higher as the reopening picture became clearer. The company's multiple is higher than both industry peers and category leaders, implying high expectations of the future. High expectations and high valuations open the door to large drawdowns from likely disappointments.\nPutting it all together, risks outweigh the rewards for me as I see better reopening plays elsewhere.\nAirbnb is a Reopening Winner Boosted by the Pandemic\nAccommodation providers were among the worst-hit losers of the pandemic. Lockdowns forced people to stay at home. Even without lockdowns, most borders were closed. And even with open borders, people were fearing the virus and didn’t travel. This unprecedented halt in demand truly tested the resiliency of the sector.\nAirbnb, though, managed to capitalize on the pandemic both in the short and long term. Alternate accommodation benefited from closed borders and the inability and risk of long-distance travel as well as from social distancing. Many consumers opted for nearby vacation homes where they could get to safely and didn’t need to interact with other guests or hotel staff. Airbnb, as the leading alternate accommodation player, benefited. Airbnb used 2021 to improve itself and grow its sector. It announced in early 2021 that it was going to educate the world about Airbnb, recruit more hosts, simplify the guest journey, and deliver world-class service. The plan seems to be working as evident in Airbnb’s revenue recovery. The company’s 2021 Q2 revenues were more than the most recent pre-pandemic data point of 2019 Q4 and this is extraordinary given the performance of Airbnb’s peers (all peers significantly below pre-pandemic levels, chart below). The shift to alternate accommodation arising from extraordinary factors was free advertising for Airbnb. Many people that had tried or would not try Airbnb were pushed into being a customer. Those that have had good experiences are likely to return. Airbnb’s pandemic struggles will result in long-term gains thanks to good crisis management.\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\nThe next leg of the pandemic is an unwind of what we’ve seen so far. With vaccination rates rising in the West and case counts inflecting lower, reopening awaits us. The reopening will see massive growth in travel. Consumers have been forced indoors for a year and a half and will make up for the lost time. The pent-up demand combined with the unused vacation days and unspent hotel points and airline miles will boost the travel industry over the coming months.\nOverall spending budgets will be boosted by high accumulated savings. Social distancing has dramatically decreased in-person discretionary spending, while massive government aid increased disposable incomes to bring the personal savings rate to all-time highs. These savings will melt towards discretionary purchases in the coming months and one of the wallet share winners will be travel.\n\nAirbnb is well-positioned to capitalize on the reopening. The company is aware of the potential and its “single priority for 2021 has been to prepare for the travel rebound”. Many consumers will still be afraid of catching the virus despite potentially low case counts and vaccination. Additionally, a significant portion of pre-pandemic hotel preferers will opt for Airbnb. Airbnb will gain a large portion of the larger reopening wallet share. The pandemic-induced habit of using Airbnb will likely linger in the reopening.\nAirbnb will not only be one of the key, but also one of the first beneficiaries of the reopening. Airbnb had a major city and cross-border travel focus before the pandemic of about 50% of revenue. The company’s supply depends on hosts and hosts are in major cities. People traveling to new countries want to see landmark cities. Tourism towards major cities is disproportionally dependent on international travel. Luckily for Airbnb, major cities where we’ve seen the worst of the pandemic and international travel, especially within the West (Airbnb makes ~80% of revenues from North America and EU) will be among the earlier areas to open.\nOne worries whether the supply is a constraint for the reopening as the number of hosts and lodging could be a limiting factor given unprecedented coming demand. But this is unlikely an issue as Airbnb has been growing its supply over the past two years while nights and experiences booked fell. Again, management is aware of the travel rebound and is doing its best to monetize it. While hotels may not be able to work at full capacity due to government mandate and won’t be able to build new rooms, excess capacity will be available at Airbnb as demand comes.\nOverall, despite being hurt financially by the pandemic, Airbnb is a hidden pandemic winner with long-term gains. The company is well situated to be a winner over the short term as well by capitalizing on the upcoming extraordinary travel demand.\nAirbnb Will be a More Profitable Company Going Forward\nAirbnb became a leaner company throughout the pandemic. The company cut 1,900 jobs or 25% of its workforce during the crisis and halted most non-essential spending. These cost-cutting measures should remain sticky and boost long-term profitability. Airbnb may face lower acquisition costs out of the pandemic as well. Brand value of Airbnb grew to become a household name. The company’s services will be the go-to place for travel bookings for many consumers. This will result in lower costs paid to third parties to acquire traffic. The street expects 23% EBITDA margins from the company in 2023, which is much higher than what we’ve seen so far and closer to peers. Airbnb will be more profitable thanks to the pandemic.\nThe Reopening Benefit is Expected\nReopening winners are a key focus for me in the coming months. I see a lot of alpha in buying winners where consensus is lacking behind. This is a good risk-reward trade for me due to the near-term time horizon and the specific catalyst.\nUnfortunately, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be what I’m looking for. If we look at consensus expectations of Airbnb we see that they reflect what I explained above. The market increased Airbnb revenue estimates with expectations of a recovery. Revenue estimates for FY22 increased by 20% since last December. I say increased with expectations of recovery due to the front-load of revisions. The rate of positive revisions declines as further out the estimates go (charts below).\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\n\nSource: CapitalIQ\nConsensus isn’t getting sandbagged here as well. Some companies manage Street expectations by setting the bar low to anchor analyst estimates and then over-deliver, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be one of those companies currently. Analysts were expecting 20% more revenue than the $1.65 bn Airbnb guided towards at the time of guidance and are up to 24% currently for Q3. This is a much larger gap than one would normally see and shows the high expectations of Airbnb.\nSource: CapitalIQ\nThe consensus is aggressive. All the upward revisions have resulted in revenue expectations that are 35%, 80%, and 120% higher than what Airbnb achieved in the last twelve months for FY22, FY23, and FY24 respectively. Airbnb could of course deliver, it is perfectly situated to deliver amazing quarters, but it isn’t the reopening play for me. I see better risk-reward in other reopening winners with much easier bars to clear (see my articles on Ulta(NASDAQ:ULTA),Revolve(NYSE:RVLV), and Square(NYSE:SQ)).\nAirbnb Price is High\nIf Airbnb has depressed multiples, it could deliver even if it falls short of consensus estimates. Conversely, high multiples mean high confidence in future growth and are a broad reflection of positive sentiment. Positive sentiment is generally a disadvantage as it's much easier to turn a positive sentiment neutral or negative with an earnings miss than it is to turn it even more positive with a blowout quarter.\nI want to judge Airbnb’s valuation as fairly as possible. The market values future growth for a name like Airbnb, which I agree with. I factor in future growth by looking at multiples over CY23 revenues and the speed of growth between CY20 and CY23 in my comparison. Bulls also like to separate Airbnb from its peers as a category leader, which I don’t agree with. It may be not the same as a hotel, but it sure is a substitute in the eyes of the consumer in the overwhelming majority of cases (for now at least). But I will also compare its multiples and growth expectations to other category leaders to give it the benefit of the doubt.\nThe valuation is rich. For me, Booking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG)is a good comparison. Booking also is a travel marketplace with fast growth and a bright future. One might say that Booking is also richly priced as it is well above its peers, but Airbnb is on another level trading at more than double where Booking is despite having similar growth expectations. Booking is more profitable, having EBITDA margins of 14% vs. extremely negative margins of Airbnb (-64%), and is expected to remain significantly more profitable into the future with 37% FY23 expected EBITDA margins vs. 23% for Airbnb. Let’s not forget that rest of these companies are well situated to benefit from the reopening as well, perhaps even more so than Airbnb with hotels gaining back lost share.\nSector leader comparison is kinder, but still yields the same result. Here we have DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)as the closest peer in terms of multiples, but is still significantly less expensive despite having a similar growth rate. Uber(NYSE:UBER)for example is another name that will benefit from the reopening due to its mobility and sharing focus, is trading grossly cheaper than Airbnb, while expected to grow at a similar rate.\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\nAirbnb is expected to trade much richer than the sector for a long time. I went and looked at when Airbnb’s extremely high multiples would compress enough to reach those of its peers thinking that the higher growth would bring them down quickly. This isn’t the case. With the current enterprise value and consensus, Airbnb will reach Booking’s next twelve-month revenue and EBITDA multiples in 5 years and earnings multiples in 7. Again, let’s not forget that Booking is also growing fast and will also compress its multiples. I see that Airbnb has clearer options to add new revenue streams but a lot of this is clearly in the price today.\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\nOverall, I see poor risk-reward for the reopening bull thesis of Airbnb. Expectations factor in maybe not all but a good portion of outperformance over the near term. The valuation is high and has a lot of expectations built in. This makes the stock price vulnerable to changes in near-term sentiment despite the long-term nature of these expectations.\nInterest Rate Sensitivity\nAirbnb is vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. I wrote before on my views on the future of rates and the vulnerability of the growth complex in depth (hereandhere). I expect a bear steepener environment over the coming months, that is rising rates accompanied by a steepening curve. This, if correct, would result in a higher discount factor via a higher risk-free rate. A high risk-free rate will have an outsized effect on fast growth equities with far-out cash flows. Airbnb is amongst the longest duration names with a price to sales multiple of 23x. A higher discount rate would dramatically change the company valuation and, in theory, decrease the stock price.\nExcellent Prospects for the Long Term\nDespite my unattraction for the near term, Airbnb has a lot going for it. Just the shift from hotels to alternative accommodations alone should boost growth for many years to come. The company is at the beginning of its journey of gaining a significant share out of the massive global lodging market. In addition to this, Airbnb has a lot of initiatives that it can take to create new revenue streams.\nThe easiest of these are short-term rentals. By short I mean longer than vacation stay, so from about a couple of weeks to a year or so. This is an underserved market for which there is a lot of demand. Expats, project-focused business travelers, students especially ones studying abroad, interns, and long vacationers are all target markets for such a product. It’d be easy for Airbnb to add services in this category as well, as it already has the supply and the marketing capabilities. I expect longer-term rentals to become an important category for Airbnb in the future.\nAirbnb could gain a larger share of value by integrating upstream. Airbnb could host or co-host. It has demand data and financial capabilities which would make it a great investor in properties. Airbnb-hosted properties would resemble private label products sold in chain supermarkets, or on Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)for that matter. I doubt that the company would prioritize this as it may push current hosts away, but I’d be surprised if Airbnb didn’t delve into hosting in the future.\nAirbnb could begin to sell ancillary services. Airbnb could provide cleaning services with its own cleaning crew. Cleaning is a necessity before every booking and could significantly increase monetization. Airbnb could also provide insurance for hosts. One of the main worries of people thinking of becoming hosts is damage to or loss of property. Airbnb has a lot of data on claims and could provide insurance to hosts with an efficient actuary. An insurance offer would also increase the supply of properties as well with more hosts joining the platform.\nThere are a lot of growth levers that Airbnb could pull but I expect none in the near term. Airbnb has all of its focus on capitalizing on the travel rebound and with 25% fewer employees due to cost cuts it’s unlikely to add new products soon.\nOverall the Risk-Reward isn’t Favorable For Me (Today)\nI like Airbnb’s operations, track record, and near and short-term prospects. It’s done very well navigating through choppy times and took advantage of the pandemic with agility. I expect Airbnb to see tremendous growth over the near term and to gain a growing share of the hospitality market over the long term.\nHowever, my expectations of Airbnb seem to be reflected in Street estimates and the company’s valuation. I see high execution risk and a large potential downwards stock reaction to any disappointments but capped upside unless we see blowout quarters. Thus, I am on the sidelines on Airbnb for now.\nHow I Could be Wrong Either Way\nI always want to give the entire picture in my analysis and in this section, I will try to provide how the stock price could meaningfully move higher or lower from areas I haven’t covered in the article.\nThe consumer preference between hotels vs. alternate accommodation highly influences Airbnb. The pandemic saw the latter win. It is reasonable to expect an unwind of this trend. I didn’t mention this in my article as I think it will be gradual and the high upcoming demand will overcome the micro move. But my assumption could be wrong, consumers could overwhelmingly prefer hotels which would make life very difficult for Airbnb. Conversely, pandemic choices could remain sticky and Airbnb could keep its pandemic era gains. Consumer preferences of style of stay will be highly decisive for Airbnb in the future.\nThe macroeconomic picture will be another deciding factor. A better than expected reopening demand will be a tide lifts all boats situation, while a subdued one would wreak havoc in the hospitality industry. A prolonged pandemic, especially in a situation with less government aid, would also significantly harm Airbnb prospects. I mentioned that I expected a rising rate environment and that Airbnb valuation would be harmed by it, the vice versa of what I wrote is true. Airbnb would greatly benefit from falling rates all else equal.\nProfitability will be an area to watch coming out of the pandemic. I already mentioned higher margins going forward. But these margins are still significantly below what is expected of peers (consensus EBITDA margins for CY23: Airbnb 23% vs. TripAdvisor(NASDAQ:TRIP)33%, Booking Holdings 37%). Airbnb could deliver on the upside in an environment of excess demand. Moreover, the low traffic acquisition costs I wrote about may not be in the consensus and could provide an upside. Conversely, some job cuts may have been premature and/or crisis management, and Airbnb could need to regrow its workforce contracting margins back down.\nDespite unlikely with the management’s reopening focus and reduced headcount, if Airbnb manages to launch one of the products I’ve mentioned, it will likely be met with a positive reaction. A new revenue stream will cause analysts to reevaluate long-term growth expectations and increase revenue estimates.\nLet’s not forget about the big risk facing Airbnb, regulation. A lot of cities were pressured to impose regulations on Airbnb pre-pandemic. Regulatory risks clout the future and uncertainty is always a big negative for investors. These issues resurfacing, despite the outcome, could hamper Airbnb stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821096507"}
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