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2021-10-08

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September’s Jobs Report Is Coming. It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.

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It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132662434","media":"Barrons","summary":"The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.\nFor months, economists and central bankers ","content":"<p></p>\n<p>The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.</p>\n<p>For months, economists and central bankers have said September is when millions of workers would re-enter the labor market, helping supply chains thaw and setting up an economy that is ready for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back emergency bond buying launched in response to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>The stock market pullback began when the Fed signaled a coming shift in policy, says Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics. He says the risk for investors is thus for a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number, with a strong report unlikely to be friendly for equity or bond markets.</p>\n<p>That’s not because of taper timing. Knapp, like many other strategists, says a November taper announcement is a foregone conclusion. To that point, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “set the bar very low,” saying a “decent” September jobs report would be enough to satisfy the last hurdle for a reduction in the $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, says Lydia Boussour, economist at Oxford Economics. Instead, markets are looking for clues around the timing of interest rate liftoff.</p>\n<p>What would “decent” look like? A private payroll print of around 500,000 would easily pass the test, Boussour says. For that portion, economists polled by FactSet predict a gain of 470,000, up from 243,000 in August. Economists expect total nonfarm payrolls to have risen 480,000 last month after August’s disappointing 235,000.</p>\n<p>There is one good, if tentative, signal that the headline nonfarm number will be stronger than expected. Continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 25 fell to the lowest level since March 2020 as enhanced unemployment benefits expired. (Though it is unclear whether the decline in those claims translates to a return to the workforce in time for the September payrolls survey week, conducted during the week that contains the 12th of the month.) A person need not be hired—just looking for work—to be counted in the labor force.</p>\n<p>“If one judges by the continued improvement in the weekly claims data, it’s possible that the 500k median forecast for September is too low,” says George Goncalves, head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG.&nbsp; He expects an upward revision to August reading, meaning a total of 1 million jobs could have been added in the past two months.</p>\n<p>So what, then, would a “strong” report look like? Goncalves says around 700,000 in new hiring. “If we get that plus higher wages and improved hours worked, [it] could result in a spike [in Treasury yields] and a test for the buy-the-dip crowd,” he says.</p>\n<p>As for the unemployment rate, strategists expect a further decline. Knapp notes that the Conference Board’s Labor Differential gauge is highly correlated with the U-3 and U-6 rates of unemployment and says it points to “significant downside” for those rates. Knapp expects to see the main U-3 rate slip to 4.3%, far below the consensus estimate of 5.1%. In August, that rate stood 5.2%. As for U-6, a more comprehensive measure that includes those marginally attached as well as part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment, Knapp sees a decline to 7.6% from 8.8% a month earlier.</p>\n<p>The labor force participation rate, which has barely budged in a year, likely ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 61.8% in September, says Boussour. An ongoing lack of labor supply—even if expiring unemployment benefits and the return of in-person school are starting to help–likely pushed wages higher during the month. Boussour forecasts a 0.4% gain in average hourly earnings, pushing the annual rate to 4.6% from 4.3% in August. The monthly gain, she says, will again be led by low-paid services industries as the recovery continues to lift demand for workers in industries most hit by the pandemic.</p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September’s Jobs Report Is Coming. It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember’s Jobs Report Is Coming. It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 14:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-jobs-report-51633642185?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.\nFor months, economists and central bankers have said September is when millions of workers would re-enter the labor market, helping supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-jobs-report-51633642185?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-jobs-report-51633642185?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132662434","content_text":"The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.\nFor months, economists and central bankers have said September is when millions of workers would re-enter the labor market, helping supply chains thaw and setting up an economy that is ready for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back emergency bond buying launched in response to the pandemic.\nThe stock market pullback began when the Fed signaled a coming shift in policy, says Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics. He says the risk for investors is thus for a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number, with a strong report unlikely to be friendly for equity or bond markets.\nThat’s not because of taper timing. Knapp, like many other strategists, says a November taper announcement is a foregone conclusion. To that point, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “set the bar very low,” saying a “decent” September jobs report would be enough to satisfy the last hurdle for a reduction in the $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, says Lydia Boussour, economist at Oxford Economics. Instead, markets are looking for clues around the timing of interest rate liftoff.\nWhat would “decent” look like? A private payroll print of around 500,000 would easily pass the test, Boussour says. For that portion, economists polled by FactSet predict a gain of 470,000, up from 243,000 in August. Economists expect total nonfarm payrolls to have risen 480,000 last month after August’s disappointing 235,000.\nThere is one good, if tentative, signal that the headline nonfarm number will be stronger than expected. Continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 25 fell to the lowest level since March 2020 as enhanced unemployment benefits expired. (Though it is unclear whether the decline in those claims translates to a return to the workforce in time for the September payrolls survey week, conducted during the week that contains the 12th of the month.) A person need not be hired—just looking for work—to be counted in the labor force.\n“If one judges by the continued improvement in the weekly claims data, it’s possible that the 500k median forecast for September is too low,” says George Goncalves, head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG.  He expects an upward revision to August reading, meaning a total of 1 million jobs could have been added in the past two months.\nSo what, then, would a “strong” report look like? Goncalves says around 700,000 in new hiring. “If we get that plus higher wages and improved hours worked, [it] could result in a spike [in Treasury yields] and a test for the buy-the-dip crowd,” he says.\nAs for the unemployment rate, strategists expect a further decline. Knapp notes that the Conference Board’s Labor Differential gauge is highly correlated with the U-3 and U-6 rates of unemployment and says it points to “significant downside” for those rates. Knapp expects to see the main U-3 rate slip to 4.3%, far below the consensus estimate of 5.1%. In August, that rate stood 5.2%. As for U-6, a more comprehensive measure that includes those marginally attached as well as part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment, Knapp sees a decline to 7.6% from 8.8% a month earlier.\nThe labor force participation rate, which has barely budged in a year, likely ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 61.8% in September, says Boussour. An ongoing lack of labor supply—even if expiring unemployment benefits and the return of in-person school are starting to help–likely pushed wages higher during the month. Boussour forecasts a 0.4% gain in average hourly earnings, pushing the annual rate to 4.6% from 4.3% in August. The monthly gain, she says, will again be led by low-paid services industries as the recovery continues to lift demand for workers in industries most hit by the pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821066739"}