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2021-08-27
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Box: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":819204245,"tweetId":"819204245","gmtCreate":1630070968987,"gmtModify":1704955491435,"author":{"id":3574925827192931,"idStr":"3574925827192931","authorId":3574925827192931,"authorIdStr":"3574925827192931","name":"JoshyQ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819204245","repostId":1177903834,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177903834","pubTimestamp":1630070724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177903834?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 21:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Box: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177903834","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Box have fallen ~5% after a strong Q2 earnings report.\nRevenue growth accelerated","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shares of Box have fallen ~5% after a strong Q2 earnings report.</li>\n <li>Revenue growth accelerated to 12% y/y, and billings growth of 13% y/y indicates that revenue growth may even pick up slightly.</li>\n <li>The company also delivered significant margin expansion and expects to hit the \"Rule of 40\" on a free cash flow basis by FY24.</li>\n <li>Box is still a very cheap stock at <4x forward revenue.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1670e3d657812cae8258809923793c19\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1026\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Noam Galai/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p>\n<p>So far, the year 2021 has been a promising one for Box(NYSE:BOX). The file storage and sharing service, one of the earlier SaaS companies to go public and gain a reputation for \"growth at all costs,\" has seen a 40% jump in its stock price year to date, more than doubling that of the S&P 500 - though that hardly makes up for Box's years of disappointing returns. This is the year, however, that investors have seemed to favor positioning themselves defensively with value stocks over growth, even with the market counting to sit at all-time highs.</p>\n<p>A slight crack in this positive rebound showed after Box reported Q2 results, which resulted in a ~5% dip despite strong top and bottom-line results. In my view, the dip is a strong buying opportunity in a company that has repeatedly shown its capacity to scale profitably and to retain growth in a software category that is often described as overly competitive.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9c3ef144b8f48e4171067b3519dce8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>My main investing strategy over the past year has been to find stocks that I feel comfortable buying at all-time market tops. The basic question here is: \"what stock will be relatively immune to, say, a ~20% market correction, by gist of the fact that it's already currently cheap to begin with?\" Box has always retained a strong value element, and today, with strong forward-looking estimates plus a still-depressed share price, that value element has never been brighter.</p>\n<p>At current share prices near $25, Box trades at a market cap of $3.85 billion. After we net off the $829.4 million of cash and $366.5 million of debt on Box's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $3.39 billion.</p>\n<p>For the current fiscal year, Box has guided to revenue of $856-$860 million, representing 12% y/y growth. For the next fiscal year (FY22), Wall Street analysts have given a consensus revenue target of $942.5 million for Box, representing 11% y/y growth (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Box's valuation multiples at an ultra-modest multiple of:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>4.0x EV/FY21 revenue</b></li>\n <li><b>3.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Recall as well that Box has maintained its goal of hitting a \"Rule of 40\" profile by FY24, which it defines as revenue growth plus free cash flow margin (the latter standing in for how most companies calculate the Rule of 40, with pro forma operating margin instead of FCF).</p>\n<p>Figure 1. Box Rule of 40</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffb5ce6e7901cd0b87e178d41c64b2ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BoxQ2 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>Let's tease that out quickly. If Box hits 11% y/y growth in the two years after FY22, then its revenue in that year would be $1.16 billion. The lower point of its guidance would suggest a 29% FCF margin (though it really expects to be at 40%+ growth plus FCF margin in that year), which would imply $336.4 million in FCF. Its current valuation, then, stands at a ~10x multiple of future cash flow (an even lower multiple would result if Box outperforms the lower end of its Rule of 40 guidance).</p>\n<p>Aside from the free cash flow opportunity, here are the other reasons to be bullish on Box, as a refresher:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Nearly pure recurring revenue business that has shown resilience during macroeconomic shocks.</b>Even amid the pandemic, Box has managed to retain its low double-digit/high single-digit revenue growth rates. Revenue growth in Q2 accelerated over Q1, showing sustained momentum.</li>\n <li><b>Enterprise orientation.</b>Of all of its well-known competitors, Box is the only company that is enterprise-focused. The company touts its security features plus advanced capabilities like Box Skills as key distinguishers versus the likes of Dropbox.</li>\n <li><b>Box's product portfolio expansion has led to a $55 billion market.</b>Despite competition, Box cites a massive $55 billion market across storage, content collaboration, and data security. That's a big enough space for multiple incumbents, and also suggests Box is only currently ~2% penetrated into this overall market. Recent portfolio additions like Box Sign have greatly expanded Box's potential.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Stay long here and use the dip as a buying opportunity.</p>\n<p><b>Q2 download</b></p>\n<p>Let's now cover Box's latest second-quarter results in greater detail. There were no major red flags to be found, in my mind, that warrants Box's ~5% drop.</p>\n<p>Starting with revenue: Box saw its revenue growth accelerate two points in the quarter, growing 12% y/y to $214.5 million, edging out over Wall Street's $213.0 million (+11% y/y) expectations. We note as well that this is Box's strongest quarter for revenue growth over the past five.</p>\n<p>Figure 2. Box revenue growth trends</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b477b6fd8ecc7c46b3fcce168903fcb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>Box has also shown strong billings trends. Recall that in Q1, the company saw 24% y/y growth in billings, but against a very easy pandemic comp that saw deal signings materially slow down upon the immediate start of lockdowns. Yet billings were also strong in Q2 at 13% y/y growth, indicating that revenue growth may accelerate beyond 12% y/y growth in the near future. Note that Box's long-term operating plan calls for revenue growth between 12-16% y/y (so our expectations of 11% y/y are more on the conservative side). Box's deferred revenue is also up 16% y/y, indicating a strong \"pipeline\" of deals billed that are waiting to be recognized as revenue.</p>\n<p>Figure 3. Box billings trends</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b81a48cf40f716a78b1cadfb79ae971\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company has noted that the rollout of the Box Sign product, Box's answer to the likes of DocuSign, has been a successful one. Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from founder and CEO Aaron Levie on the most recent Q2 earnings call detailing Box Sign traction and other go-to-market strengths:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Initial response from customers has been very positive and we're rolling out Box Sign to all business and enterprise customers throughout this fall with a significant roadmap of innovation ahead [...]\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Building on the success of suites, in late July, we also announced a new simplified product addition for our enterprise customers called Enterprise Plus, which includes shield governance, relay, platform, Box Sign, the ability for large file uploads and enhanced support and consulting credits. You can see the success of our go-to-market efforts most clearly when looking at our Q2 customer expansion. For instance, one of the largest banks in the world purchases seven figure deal with multiple products, including key safe governance, relay shield and platform to support new use cases for Box, including claims processing and loan origination and a more secure virtual environment.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>To Levie's last point, multi-product customers have become a defining feature of Box's growth strategy. 73% of Box's >$100k deals are now \"Box Suite\" deals, with custom pricing for a basket of Box services. Two years ago, when Box was still rolling out Suites, this rate stood closer to 10%.</p>\n<p>The trend toward more products per customer has helped bring up Box's net revenue retention rates as well, which you can see in the chart below has improved to 106%, from the low 100% range during the pandemic:</p>\n<p>Figure 4. Box net retention rates</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04cfd569714ad97156280e851aa6abac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>Box also managed to retain these strong top-line trends while delivering substantial profitability performance. The company's gross margins improved 100bps to 74.5%, while pro forma operating expenses fell 4% as a percentage of revenue, driven by a two-point reduction each in sales and marketing and R&D expenses:</p>\n<p>Figure 5. Box gross margin trends</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92552ec3249e1c378987e476b7ff4bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company also delivered $29.8 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up more than 2x y/y. Year to date, Box's free cash flow of $105.7 million has also doubled y/y and is at a 25% FCF margin.</p>\n<p><b>Key takeaways</b></p>\n<p>Box falls into a category of stocks that I would consider \"guilt free.\" I don't need to feel anxious about buying this stock at market highs because I know its ultra-low valuation shields it from much further downside. On top of consistent low-teens growth, free cash flow expansion and ambitious long-term targets for continued FCF conversion, I'm staying long here.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Box: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBox: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-27 21:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452035-box-guilt-free-stock-shielded-by-ultra-low-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShares of Box have fallen ~5% after a strong Q2 earnings report.\nRevenue growth accelerated to 12% y/y, and billings growth of 13% y/y indicates that revenue growth may even pick up slightly....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452035-box-guilt-free-stock-shielded-by-ultra-low-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BOX":"Box Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452035-box-guilt-free-stock-shielded-by-ultra-low-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177903834","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Box have fallen ~5% after a strong Q2 earnings report.\nRevenue growth accelerated to 12% y/y, and billings growth of 13% y/y indicates that revenue growth may even pick up slightly.\nThe company also delivered significant margin expansion and expects to hit the \"Rule of 40\" on a free cash flow basis by FY24.\nBox is still a very cheap stock at <4x forward revenue.\n\nNoam Galai/Getty Images Entertainment\nSo far, the year 2021 has been a promising one for Box(NYSE:BOX). The file storage and sharing service, one of the earlier SaaS companies to go public and gain a reputation for \"growth at all costs,\" has seen a 40% jump in its stock price year to date, more than doubling that of the S&P 500 - though that hardly makes up for Box's years of disappointing returns. This is the year, however, that investors have seemed to favor positioning themselves defensively with value stocks over growth, even with the market counting to sit at all-time highs.\nA slight crack in this positive rebound showed after Box reported Q2 results, which resulted in a ~5% dip despite strong top and bottom-line results. In my view, the dip is a strong buying opportunity in a company that has repeatedly shown its capacity to scale profitably and to retain growth in a software category that is often described as overly competitive.\nData by YCharts\nMy main investing strategy over the past year has been to find stocks that I feel comfortable buying at all-time market tops. The basic question here is: \"what stock will be relatively immune to, say, a ~20% market correction, by gist of the fact that it's already currently cheap to begin with?\" Box has always retained a strong value element, and today, with strong forward-looking estimates plus a still-depressed share price, that value element has never been brighter.\nAt current share prices near $25, Box trades at a market cap of $3.85 billion. After we net off the $829.4 million of cash and $366.5 million of debt on Box's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $3.39 billion.\nFor the current fiscal year, Box has guided to revenue of $856-$860 million, representing 12% y/y growth. For the next fiscal year (FY22), Wall Street analysts have given a consensus revenue target of $942.5 million for Box, representing 11% y/y growth (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Box's valuation multiples at an ultra-modest multiple of:\n\n4.0x EV/FY21 revenue\n3.6x EV/FY22 revenue\n\nRecall as well that Box has maintained its goal of hitting a \"Rule of 40\" profile by FY24, which it defines as revenue growth plus free cash flow margin (the latter standing in for how most companies calculate the Rule of 40, with pro forma operating margin instead of FCF).\nFigure 1. Box Rule of 40\nSource: BoxQ2 investor presentation\nLet's tease that out quickly. If Box hits 11% y/y growth in the two years after FY22, then its revenue in that year would be $1.16 billion. The lower point of its guidance would suggest a 29% FCF margin (though it really expects to be at 40%+ growth plus FCF margin in that year), which would imply $336.4 million in FCF. Its current valuation, then, stands at a ~10x multiple of future cash flow (an even lower multiple would result if Box outperforms the lower end of its Rule of 40 guidance).\nAside from the free cash flow opportunity, here are the other reasons to be bullish on Box, as a refresher:\n\nNearly pure recurring revenue business that has shown resilience during macroeconomic shocks.Even amid the pandemic, Box has managed to retain its low double-digit/high single-digit revenue growth rates. Revenue growth in Q2 accelerated over Q1, showing sustained momentum.\nEnterprise orientation.Of all of its well-known competitors, Box is the only company that is enterprise-focused. The company touts its security features plus advanced capabilities like Box Skills as key distinguishers versus the likes of Dropbox.\nBox's product portfolio expansion has led to a $55 billion market.Despite competition, Box cites a massive $55 billion market across storage, content collaboration, and data security. That's a big enough space for multiple incumbents, and also suggests Box is only currently ~2% penetrated into this overall market. Recent portfolio additions like Box Sign have greatly expanded Box's potential.\n\nStay long here and use the dip as a buying opportunity.\nQ2 download\nLet's now cover Box's latest second-quarter results in greater detail. There were no major red flags to be found, in my mind, that warrants Box's ~5% drop.\nStarting with revenue: Box saw its revenue growth accelerate two points in the quarter, growing 12% y/y to $214.5 million, edging out over Wall Street's $213.0 million (+11% y/y) expectations. We note as well that this is Box's strongest quarter for revenue growth over the past five.\nFigure 2. Box revenue growth trends\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nBox has also shown strong billings trends. Recall that in Q1, the company saw 24% y/y growth in billings, but against a very easy pandemic comp that saw deal signings materially slow down upon the immediate start of lockdowns. Yet billings were also strong in Q2 at 13% y/y growth, indicating that revenue growth may accelerate beyond 12% y/y growth in the near future. Note that Box's long-term operating plan calls for revenue growth between 12-16% y/y (so our expectations of 11% y/y are more on the conservative side). Box's deferred revenue is also up 16% y/y, indicating a strong \"pipeline\" of deals billed that are waiting to be recognized as revenue.\nFigure 3. Box billings trends\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nThe company has noted that the rollout of the Box Sign product, Box's answer to the likes of DocuSign, has been a successful one. Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from founder and CEO Aaron Levie on the most recent Q2 earnings call detailing Box Sign traction and other go-to-market strengths:\n\n Initial response from customers has been very positive and we're rolling out Box Sign to all business and enterprise customers throughout this fall with a significant roadmap of innovation ahead [...]\n\n\n Building on the success of suites, in late July, we also announced a new simplified product addition for our enterprise customers called Enterprise Plus, which includes shield governance, relay, platform, Box Sign, the ability for large file uploads and enhanced support and consulting credits. You can see the success of our go-to-market efforts most clearly when looking at our Q2 customer expansion. For instance, one of the largest banks in the world purchases seven figure deal with multiple products, including key safe governance, relay shield and platform to support new use cases for Box, including claims processing and loan origination and a more secure virtual environment.\"\n\nTo Levie's last point, multi-product customers have become a defining feature of Box's growth strategy. 73% of Box's >$100k deals are now \"Box Suite\" deals, with custom pricing for a basket of Box services. Two years ago, when Box was still rolling out Suites, this rate stood closer to 10%.\nThe trend toward more products per customer has helped bring up Box's net revenue retention rates as well, which you can see in the chart below has improved to 106%, from the low 100% range during the pandemic:\nFigure 4. Box net retention rates\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nBox also managed to retain these strong top-line trends while delivering substantial profitability performance. The company's gross margins improved 100bps to 74.5%, while pro forma operating expenses fell 4% as a percentage of revenue, driven by a two-point reduction each in sales and marketing and R&D expenses:\nFigure 5. Box gross margin trends\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nThe company also delivered $29.8 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up more than 2x y/y. Year to date, Box's free cash flow of $105.7 million has also doubled y/y and is at a 25% FCF margin.\nKey takeaways\nBox falls into a category of stocks that I would consider \"guilt free.\" I don't need to feel anxious about buying this stock at market highs because I know its ultra-low valuation shields it from much further downside. On top of consistent low-teens growth, free cash flow expansion and ambitious long-term targets for continued FCF conversion, I'm staying long here.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/819204245"}
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