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2021-08-31
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Tesla: Waiting For Major Catalysts
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While they are now back into the green thanks to US markets continuing to hit new highs almost daily, the less than 3% gain this year is still well below the more than 21% rally seen in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the chart below. As the year has continued, some may argue that there was a bit of Tesla fatigue after last year's rally, but the focus now is definitely shifting to some major catalysts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52b7f844502fbc5c705160b7a259289f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(<i>Source: Yahoo! Finance)</i></p>\n<p>Perhaps the biggest thing investors are watching for currently is the upcoming start of production at two new factories. One will be in Berlin, Germany, with the other being Tesla's second US factory in Austin, Texas. While some bulls were hoping earlier this year that this current quarter would be the start of production for at least one facility, the ongoing pandemic hasn't helped things and there have been some delays in Germany regarding environmental issues. Tesla has also had some production issues at current plants, like other automakers, due to the chip shortage, which can't help the overall situation.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the biggest clue as to when things could take off will come at the Q3 earnings report in October. Take a look at the graphic below, which showed installed annual capacity at the Q3 2019 earnings report. Shanghai Model 3 was shown as \"pre-production\", and the company's first real quarter of output therecame in Q1 2020when there were almost 16,700 vehicles produced. If we see a pre-production status on one or both of the new factories at the next earnings report, it likely means a handful of vehicles will be produced by year's end, and then the main production ramp will start in early 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fde7d153e46faafad4ac5d0598cfc4a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(<i>Source: Tesla Q3 2019 investor letter,seen here)</i></p>\n<p>Back in July, the company put its installed annual capacity at greater than 262,500 units per quarter, but we know that actual production is well below that, mostly thanks to the ongoing ramp of the new Model S/X lines. Total production in Q2 was a little more than 206,000 units, with deliveries about 5,000 below that. With the Model S ramping to several hundred vehicles of production per week and the Model Y lines in China getting closer to full capacity, most estimates forthe current periodare in the low 220k area.</p>\n<p>The second longer-term item investors are really curious about is the company's progress on full self-driving. While CEO Elon Musk promised one million robo-taxis on the road last year, we're 8 months into this year and still not one single robo-taxi exists. Every couple of weeks a new beta version of the software package is being released, but delays are certainly piling up. It doesn't help that over the weekend therewas another accidentwhere a Tesla allegedly on Autopilot slammed into a parked police cruiser, along with another account of a drunk driver supposedlytrying to useAutopilot to get home. One thing I'm really curious about is why we are now just about done with the second month of Q3, yet Tesla still has not released itsVehicle Safety Report, an analysis of quarterly Tesla vehicle crash stats that in almost every previous quarter was out just 2-3 weeks after quarter's end.</p>\n<p>In the short term, there are two major catalysts for investors to focus on. The first one is Tesla's August China sales number, which we'll get in about 10-14 days. One Twitter user who has been fairly accurate in the pastrecently tweetedthat August sales, excluding exports, were just over 10,000 last month, which would be quite low for the second month of the quarter. There have been a lot of exports to Europe with Model Y deliveries starting on that continent, and the above Twitter user reported that the Shanghai plant was down for a week last month due to parts shortages. Even so, Tesla has lowered Model 3 and Y prices in China lately, and competitors like NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV) continue to ramp production and launch new models.</p>\n<p>The second item comes this week and isn't Tesla-specific. We'll get US employment data on Friday, and a strong jobs report would only add to the chances that the Fed starts to taper this year. A softening of easy money policy could lead to an overall market pullback, and Tesla probably wouldn't be immune from that. Tesla shares are currently about $40 above theaverage price targeton the street. The stock has recently found support at the 50-day (purple line) and 200-day moving averages (orange line), seen in the chart below, so that would be an area to watch if we get a pullback.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e13a867416d6988c1213f96b30e10189\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(<i>Source: Yahoo! Finance)</i></p>\n<p>In the end, investors in Tesla are waiting for some major updates in the coming months. The Berlin and Texas factories could start vehicle production, although at this point in the year volumes aren't likely to be meaningful. Everyone is also waiting for the robo-taxi network to launch, as that's a key part of the investor bull case for the next few years. In the short term, China sales numbers and the US jobs report will be watched, which if the data goes against Tesla we could see the stock pull back to its key technical trend lines.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Waiting For Major Catalysts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Waiting For Major Catalysts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-31 13:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452647-tesla-waiting-for-major-catalysts><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShares back in green for 2021 as markets hit new highs.\nFull self-driving, new factory timelines remain unclear.\nChina sales under scrutiny as competitors ramp into 2022.\n\nAs of last Thursday...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452647-tesla-waiting-for-major-catalysts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452647-tesla-waiting-for-major-catalysts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1141305419","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares back in green for 2021 as markets hit new highs.\nFull self-driving, new factory timelines remain unclear.\nChina sales under scrutiny as competitors ramp into 2022.\n\nAs of last Thursday's close, shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors were in the red for this year. While they are now back into the green thanks to US markets continuing to hit new highs almost daily, the less than 3% gain this year is still well below the more than 21% rally seen in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the chart below. As the year has continued, some may argue that there was a bit of Tesla fatigue after last year's rally, but the focus now is definitely shifting to some major catalysts.\n\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nPerhaps the biggest thing investors are watching for currently is the upcoming start of production at two new factories. One will be in Berlin, Germany, with the other being Tesla's second US factory in Austin, Texas. While some bulls were hoping earlier this year that this current quarter would be the start of production for at least one facility, the ongoing pandemic hasn't helped things and there have been some delays in Germany regarding environmental issues. Tesla has also had some production issues at current plants, like other automakers, due to the chip shortage, which can't help the overall situation.\nPerhaps the biggest clue as to when things could take off will come at the Q3 earnings report in October. Take a look at the graphic below, which showed installed annual capacity at the Q3 2019 earnings report. Shanghai Model 3 was shown as \"pre-production\", and the company's first real quarter of output therecame in Q1 2020when there were almost 16,700 vehicles produced. If we see a pre-production status on one or both of the new factories at the next earnings report, it likely means a handful of vehicles will be produced by year's end, and then the main production ramp will start in early 2022.\n\n(Source: Tesla Q3 2019 investor letter,seen here)\nBack in July, the company put its installed annual capacity at greater than 262,500 units per quarter, but we know that actual production is well below that, mostly thanks to the ongoing ramp of the new Model S/X lines. Total production in Q2 was a little more than 206,000 units, with deliveries about 5,000 below that. With the Model S ramping to several hundred vehicles of production per week and the Model Y lines in China getting closer to full capacity, most estimates forthe current periodare in the low 220k area.\nThe second longer-term item investors are really curious about is the company's progress on full self-driving. While CEO Elon Musk promised one million robo-taxis on the road last year, we're 8 months into this year and still not one single robo-taxi exists. Every couple of weeks a new beta version of the software package is being released, but delays are certainly piling up. It doesn't help that over the weekend therewas another accidentwhere a Tesla allegedly on Autopilot slammed into a parked police cruiser, along with another account of a drunk driver supposedlytrying to useAutopilot to get home. One thing I'm really curious about is why we are now just about done with the second month of Q3, yet Tesla still has not released itsVehicle Safety Report, an analysis of quarterly Tesla vehicle crash stats that in almost every previous quarter was out just 2-3 weeks after quarter's end.\nIn the short term, there are two major catalysts for investors to focus on. The first one is Tesla's August China sales number, which we'll get in about 10-14 days. One Twitter user who has been fairly accurate in the pastrecently tweetedthat August sales, excluding exports, were just over 10,000 last month, which would be quite low for the second month of the quarter. There have been a lot of exports to Europe with Model Y deliveries starting on that continent, and the above Twitter user reported that the Shanghai plant was down for a week last month due to parts shortages. Even so, Tesla has lowered Model 3 and Y prices in China lately, and competitors like NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV) continue to ramp production and launch new models.\nThe second item comes this week and isn't Tesla-specific. We'll get US employment data on Friday, and a strong jobs report would only add to the chances that the Fed starts to taper this year. A softening of easy money policy could lead to an overall market pullback, and Tesla probably wouldn't be immune from that. Tesla shares are currently about $40 above theaverage price targeton the street. The stock has recently found support at the 50-day (purple line) and 200-day moving averages (orange line), seen in the chart below, so that would be an area to watch if we get a pullback.\n\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, investors in Tesla are waiting for some major updates in the coming months. The Berlin and Texas factories could start vehicle production, although at this point in the year volumes aren't likely to be meaningful. Everyone is also waiting for the robo-taxi network to launch, as that's a key part of the investor bull case for the next few years. In the short term, China sales numbers and the US jobs report will be watched, which if the data goes against Tesla we could see the stock pull back to its key technical trend lines.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/818153979"}
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