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2021-08-30
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Apple: One Major 2021 Launch Risk
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While I continue to be positive on the name in the long run, I always feel investors need to know what the biggest risks are currently. As we're just a few weeks away from the expected launch of the newest iPhone, I'd like to discuss this year's biggest risk in my opinion.</p>\n<p>Apple shares have hit new highs recently not only thanks to an overall rising market, but strong business performance. Work from home tailwinds combined with the strength of 5G compatible iPhones have led to substantial earnings beats, the latest of which showed nearly 50% year over year smartphone revenue growth. The Apple ecosystem is stronger than ever, and each iPhone sold can also benefit from add-ons like AirPods, various Apple Services, etc.</p>\n<p>As great as things are now, they can turn for the worse just as quickly. In the US, for example, inflation fears have grabbed many headlines. Consumers are paying more than 40% more for gasoline than they were a year ago, food prices are rising, and housing prices have soared. With many sports and entertainment venues starting to open up or reach full capacity again, consumer spending can certainly shift. Don't forget, extra unemployment benefits are about to expire, cutting off a key source of income for millions.</p>\n<p>Thus, my biggest worry this year for the overall product launch cycle is pricing. As the graphic below shows, we saw the iPad Pro get more expensive early this year, although it did get the newly designed M1 chip. Apple did introduce a new higher storage model that become the most expensive version of the tablet by quite a wide margin. One notableApple leaker recently mentioned that the new MacBook Pro 14 inch model will get \"a notable price hike\" over its prior 13-inch generation counterpart.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77225da409fee0ad2e69fb1c32c2505\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"107\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Source: iPad Pro Wikipedia page,seen here)</span></p>\n<p>When it comes to the iPhone, I can easily see how Apple raises prices this year. Last week's rumors suggest this could happen just because of the semiconductor crisis. Also, the entry level phone has been at 64 GB of storage since the iPhone 8 was launched in late 2017. A doubling of that to 128 GB along with the usual upgrades could result in a price raise of $50-$100. For the Pro line, the elimination of the 128 GB storage option would mean starting at 256 GB, likely bringing the price up there, while also potentially allowing for a 1 TB option to be introduced.</p>\n<p>I bring up pricing because it was an issue that hurt the company with its 2018 launch cycle, a decision that management improved on significantly the following year. In the year following the 2018 iPhone launch day, Apple shares were up less than 2.5%, compared to a nearly 6.8% return for the Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ). Along with a slightly later release for the XR, consumer uneasiness over pricing meant the smallest revenue/earnings beat we've seen from Apple in the last 12 fiscal quarters. That December quarter, along with the subsequent March 2019 fiscal period, were the last time where Apple showed a year over year overall revenue growth decline.</p>\n<p>Another reason why high pricing could turn off consumers is because the current expectation is that Apple will launch another budget iPhone next Spring. A third generation of the \"SE\" line is expected to be 5G compatible, allowing consumers to access current next generation smartphone networks without paying for a premium Apple device. Even if some of the other specs are drummed down a bit, a new iPhone that goes for half or less of its regular counterparts could be a hot seller, but would reduce overall average selling prices for the smartphone.</p>\n<p>The other worry about all of this is simply timing. Last year's iPhone launch was delayed due to the pandemic, pushing the start of sales back well into the December quarter. This year, the company is expected to return to its normal launch timing, meaning a revenue start in mid to late September. With this year's revenues pulled forward in a sense, it makes comparison periods for early 2022 much tougher to match. As you can see below, despite soaring estimates, the street still sees a decline for the March quarter with barely any growth in the June period. Every time we see Apple with a revenue decline, the bear camp returns with its Apple has peaked or innovation is dead narrative, and that's never good for the stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36cd585ddbe5e8aca79d41ff7b32f81b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Apple estimates page,seen here)</span></p>\n<p>The September launch also comes around the same time as that month's Federal Reserve meeting. If a plan is put in place to taper bond purchases, the market could get a bit nervous rather quickly. Apple shares are currently trading around 27 times this fiscal year's expected earnings per share, which is roughly double what it was just a few years ago. If the market were to selloff due to the ending of easy money policy, Apple likely would not be immune from a pullback.</p>\n<p>When it comes to Apple, the biggest risk I see for this year's product launch cycle is pricing. Just like we saw a few years ago, the biggest thing that could stop this year's momentum would be a self-inflicted wound. With the company potentially increasing storage for the smartphone, it seems that pricing could move higher at a time when the consumer might not be that frisky. With the stock at all-time highs going into this year's unveiling, a lackluster sales cycle could put a dent into a great rally.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: One Major 2021 Launch Risk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: One Major 2021 Launch Risk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-30 14:36 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452495-apple-one-major-2021-launch-risk><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nCompany should be careful of raising iPhone prices too much.\nInflation pressures and federal stimulus ending could pinch spending.\nRegular launch schedule could spark revenue decline fears.\n\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452495-apple-one-major-2021-launch-risk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452495-apple-one-major-2021-launch-risk","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1167771035","content_text":"Summary\n\nCompany should be careful of raising iPhone prices too much.\nInflation pressures and federal stimulus ending could pinch spending.\nRegular launch schedule could spark revenue decline fears.\n\nOver the years, I've been one of the most realistic out there when it comes to Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), during both the best and worst of times. While I continue to be positive on the name in the long run, I always feel investors need to know what the biggest risks are currently. As we're just a few weeks away from the expected launch of the newest iPhone, I'd like to discuss this year's biggest risk in my opinion.\nApple shares have hit new highs recently not only thanks to an overall rising market, but strong business performance. Work from home tailwinds combined with the strength of 5G compatible iPhones have led to substantial earnings beats, the latest of which showed nearly 50% year over year smartphone revenue growth. The Apple ecosystem is stronger than ever, and each iPhone sold can also benefit from add-ons like AirPods, various Apple Services, etc.\nAs great as things are now, they can turn for the worse just as quickly. In the US, for example, inflation fears have grabbed many headlines. Consumers are paying more than 40% more for gasoline than they were a year ago, food prices are rising, and housing prices have soared. With many sports and entertainment venues starting to open up or reach full capacity again, consumer spending can certainly shift. Don't forget, extra unemployment benefits are about to expire, cutting off a key source of income for millions.\nThus, my biggest worry this year for the overall product launch cycle is pricing. As the graphic below shows, we saw the iPad Pro get more expensive early this year, although it did get the newly designed M1 chip. Apple did introduce a new higher storage model that become the most expensive version of the tablet by quite a wide margin. One notableApple leaker recently mentioned that the new MacBook Pro 14 inch model will get \"a notable price hike\" over its prior 13-inch generation counterpart.\n(Source: iPad Pro Wikipedia page,seen here)\nWhen it comes to the iPhone, I can easily see how Apple raises prices this year. Last week's rumors suggest this could happen just because of the semiconductor crisis. Also, the entry level phone has been at 64 GB of storage since the iPhone 8 was launched in late 2017. A doubling of that to 128 GB along with the usual upgrades could result in a price raise of $50-$100. For the Pro line, the elimination of the 128 GB storage option would mean starting at 256 GB, likely bringing the price up there, while also potentially allowing for a 1 TB option to be introduced.\nI bring up pricing because it was an issue that hurt the company with its 2018 launch cycle, a decision that management improved on significantly the following year. In the year following the 2018 iPhone launch day, Apple shares were up less than 2.5%, compared to a nearly 6.8% return for the Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ). Along with a slightly later release for the XR, consumer uneasiness over pricing meant the smallest revenue/earnings beat we've seen from Apple in the last 12 fiscal quarters. That December quarter, along with the subsequent March 2019 fiscal period, were the last time where Apple showed a year over year overall revenue growth decline.\nAnother reason why high pricing could turn off consumers is because the current expectation is that Apple will launch another budget iPhone next Spring. A third generation of the \"SE\" line is expected to be 5G compatible, allowing consumers to access current next generation smartphone networks without paying for a premium Apple device. Even if some of the other specs are drummed down a bit, a new iPhone that goes for half or less of its regular counterparts could be a hot seller, but would reduce overall average selling prices for the smartphone.\nThe other worry about all of this is simply timing. Last year's iPhone launch was delayed due to the pandemic, pushing the start of sales back well into the December quarter. This year, the company is expected to return to its normal launch timing, meaning a revenue start in mid to late September. With this year's revenues pulled forward in a sense, it makes comparison periods for early 2022 much tougher to match. As you can see below, despite soaring estimates, the street still sees a decline for the March quarter with barely any growth in the June period. Every time we see Apple with a revenue decline, the bear camp returns with its Apple has peaked or innovation is dead narrative, and that's never good for the stock.\n(Source: Apple estimates page,seen here)\nThe September launch also comes around the same time as that month's Federal Reserve meeting. If a plan is put in place to taper bond purchases, the market could get a bit nervous rather quickly. Apple shares are currently trading around 27 times this fiscal year's expected earnings per share, which is roughly double what it was just a few years ago. If the market were to selloff due to the ending of easy money policy, Apple likely would not be immune from a pullback.\nWhen it comes to Apple, the biggest risk I see for this year's product launch cycle is pricing. Just like we saw a few years ago, the biggest thing that could stop this year's momentum would be a self-inflicted wound. With the company potentially increasing storage for the smartphone, it seems that pricing could move higher at a time when the consumer might not be that frisky. With the stock at all-time highs going into this year's unveiling, a lackluster sales cycle could put a dent into a great rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/811838740"}
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