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2021-07-29
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Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.
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What to Watch.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p>\n<p>Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p>\n<p>We note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p>\n<p>Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p>\n<p>“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p>\n<p>If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p>\n<p>Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. 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What to Watch.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 18:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/808315477"}
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