MetalGuru
2021-08-04
Semiconductors!
[看涨]
AMD Eats More Cake
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":807279909,"tweetId":"807279909","gmtCreate":1628041165301,"gmtModify":1633754136459,"author":{"id":3584964198158897,"idStr":"3584964198158897","authorId":3584964198158897,"authorIdStr":"3584964198158897","name":"MetalGuru","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f9af4319fe386d09474d76fe72e470a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductors! <span>[看涨] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductors! <span>[看涨] </span></p></body></html>","text":"Semiconductors! [看涨]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807279909","repostId":1126440748,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126440748","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628040176,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126440748?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Eats More Cake","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126440748","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD had a great quarter, and the stock price was appropriately rewarded with a price surge.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMD had a great quarter, and the stock price was appropriately rewarded with a price surge. The company is not as supply-constrained as the market thought it would be.</li>\n <li>Long-term investors should keep locked in on the bigger narrative. A $79B TAM that is not as outlandish, and a $30-$40 data center opportunity. AMD is still scratching the surface.</li>\n <li>Supply constraints may well continue to pose challenges. We should weigh the odds of middling growth against financials and valuations.</li>\n <li>At an NTM EV/S of 7.7x and NTM EV/EBITDA of 30.3x, multiples are reasonable despite the uncertain supply scenario.</li>\n <li>The Abstract Portfolio is long AMD.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13f5b67b0b560ab7300802990149668\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Vlad Dmytrenko/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>By \"cake\", I mean \"market share\".</p>\n<p><b>In my view, AMD's (AMD) bull case scenario is simple: market share gains with sustained technology leadership for years to come.</b></p>\n<p>With the latest earnings results and seemingly big traction in the enterprise, data-centric, and server markets, the bull-case scenario is looking strong. I'd put the odds in AMD's favour to win going forward.</p>\n<p><b>Not So Supply-Constrained Now</b></p>\n<p>AMD's latest earnings results were stellar, beating on both revenue and earnings estimates. The company is firing on all cylinders. Check out these graphs with the latest Q2 results towards the right.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98f0702e1e6822224147bd4b983c88ed\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb02619444f2ded968c971634ca8be9\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Q2 2021 Quarterly Results</span></p>\n<p>Over the past few quarters, we've seen substantial momentum in the fundamentals. Sales have accelerated (cake has been eaten), gross margins have expanded, and the company is comfortably free cash flow generative at a 23.1% margin in Q2. They can capture this kind of free cash flow because:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>They have the best in class products in the computing market for most of their target applications, which translates to pricing power and profit-taking ability.</li>\n <li>The world keeps wanting more computing power; the pandemic has accelerated demand and with AMD positioned with best in class products, it has benefitted from demand substantially outweighing supply.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>The big concern heading into 2021 was the glass ceiling on sales growth for the semiconductor industry (and the fabless AMD) due to foundries like TSMC (TSM) and global running at max capacity with the ever-increasing demand across all computing applications. This Q2, AMD pleasantly surprised us by raising their FY2021 guidance to 60% YoY from the previous 50% YoY. The company has incrementally made progress in building up the supply every consecutive quarter and appears to be on track to close in late 2021 with higher growth rates. Lisa Su expects it to get easier in 2022.</p>\n<blockquote>\n And what I've said previously is, certainly, we do see some level of constraints, but we are making progress each quarter. And we made progress in the second quarter that enabled us to exceed the original guidance. And as we go into the second half of the year, we're continuing to bring on extra supply each quarter, which is leading to the full year guidance raise that we have. I think it improves in 2022. We've been planning for significant growth. Our model is one where we're going to drive significant growth.\n <i>- CEO Lisa Su,Q2 Earnings Transcript</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The above statement is a reason to be optimistic. So the market rewarded AMD appropriately with a nice 2-3 day surge given the improved outlook. However, to properly contextualize whether AMD makes for a strong investment, it makes sense to look longer-term.</p>\n<p><b>How Big Is The Cake?</b></p>\n<p>I don't think the market is fully factoring in the size of the opportunity at hand for AMD, shall it grow unhindered by supply constraints. Rewind back to 2019, and Intel (INTC) was recording $8-10B in sales per quarter for the data-centric market only. It was widely understood that Intel was the only name in town for the data centre and held most of the share back then. AMD's Q2 data centre revenue contributed to 20% of the $3.85B top-line, amounting to less than ~$1B. Theoretically, AMD can still be 5-8x in this market should it maintain its relatively obvious technological leadership going forward. While every growth business points towards an astronomic total addressable market relative to the current sales run-rate, I think it's worth taking AMD seriously on its targets.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6306051dadfd569fd1f863afea83c6c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company has been benchmarking a notch above both, the x86 market, and comparable ARM-based units for the time being. ARM-based chips can well be a long-term threat, but high Cap-Ex, R&D, and scaling mass operations may still take time. Apple and the big infrastructure providers (AWS, Azure, and GCP) are loading up their efforts on alternative architectures, but at least for now, it appears that the market opportunity is free to capture for AMD. It's worth mentioning that all three infrastructure providers also loaded up on AMD chips last quarter.</p>\n<p>AMD is a vanilla growth company and if this supply issue is subsiding, I don't see why it can't grow at 30%+ YoY for the coming 2-3 years should foundry capacity keep up as well. Semiconductors are known to be a cyclical industry, but at the moment AMD appears to be a straight growth company. There'll be ebbs and flows but when one business has clear technical superiority, the market responds with this straight-line demand.</p>\n<p><b>Weighing Future Supply Constraints</b></p>\n<p>The biggest \"IF...\" to the long-term thesis revolves around future supply constraints. One can speculate on the capacity available at TSM at 5nm, 3nm and beyond, or speculate on the precise relationship and market dynamics that are influencing players getting the bigger contracts.</p>\n<p>In my opinion, drawing any conclusions is difficult and only pertains to the short-term view as we're not quite sure where the fabs and contracts are going to end up in 2022 yet. The wiser outlook for me given my limited knowledge of the semi-market is to take AMD's guidance as my main data point and go from there. This may be overly simplistic but I've seen several experts turn out to be relatively \"hit or miss\" on the micro aspects of capacities, supply/demand, and inventory. After all, look at that big earnings surprise, despite the 20 or so sell-side analysts who apparently know stuff. A long-term thesis and a long-term view are simply easier to hold in my book and is almost consistently underrated by market participants.</p>\n<p>The company has been slightly conservative for the past few quarters and chances are they're doing it again. A FY 60% YoY guidance does mean that there'll be substantial sales deceleration on a sequential basis and we won't get the big jumps we saw in Q1 and Q2 of this year. With 2022, who knows? TSM is building out capacity in Nanjing, China, and Arizona in the US, but the fabs are not particularly large and how that share will be allocated across clients or influence the overall mix of technologies remains somewhat of a mystery to me.</p>\n<p>With this uncertainty, I propose that investors should weigh the financials and valuations against the long-term goal of a $75B TAM and the likelihood the company may get there.</p>\n<p><b>AMD Stock Valuation & Financials</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66a5d59a36592bb4163783a2079ef4a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>FY 2021 will most likely record +60% YoY growth as well as a 20%+ FCF margin. Both growth and profitability should be weighed in conjunction with relevant valuation multiples. Growth brings the future forward to us faster, thus delivering us excess returns on outperformance, and FCF indicates an expansion of the company's cash arsenal to spend over an acquisition, or future R&D and product development, or a sales force. With this current year, the numbers on both fronts are stellar.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5580facdb4c177c51b70292501c25a49\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>If we are thinking long-term, an NTM EV/S of 7.7x and NTM EV/EBITDA of 30.3x is perfectly reasonable to me given current dynamics. This applies in both Xilinx and non-Xilinx scenarios. A sales growth of 20-25% YoY growth for the next 2-3 years is enough to justify holding AMD at the current price, in my opinion. That's not asking too much against the supply capacity issues, so I like the odds. We've seen a large surge in stock price, but the multiples are still relatively tame. Over a long-term period, these should compress steadily. FYI, +26%YoY for 3 years is double.</p>\n<p>Across the current competitive landscape, I can't see Intel leapfrogging its own state of technology to deliver at scale any time soon. The reason they're able to hold their ground is due to fab constraints, but the fundamentals have been in secular decline. In my opinion, the technically talented Gelsinger at the helm offers strong leadership but big ships like Intel are slow to turn the course. It will take a monumental effort to catch up, and a completely separate challenge to produce at scale if they aren't doing it with in-house manufacturing capabilities. Contracting TSM for building Intel chips will likely lead to the same supply issues given their sheer size.</p>\n<p>ARM developments on the other hand should continue to impress, but for the time being, I reckon AMD's tech and execution should hold momentum. As a result, the current price is worth holding on to from a risk/reward perspective for long-term investors.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Loss Of Tech Leadership:</b>Other x86, ARM, or perhaps RISC-V based tech poses as a challenge.</li>\n <li><b>Supply Constraints:</b>Issues can continue into 2022, there's a lot of ambiguity here. A FY 60% YoY guidance translates to deceleration in the coming quarters. Flatlining growth in 2022 may induce weaker price action.</li>\n <li><b>Macro:</b>The economic and business cycles turn unfavourable for chip upgrades.</li>\n <li><b>Systemic:</b>General broader market-based risk. AMD has had higher volatility compared to benchmarks and will likely continue to do so. Sell-offs may also lead to deep and elongated drawdowns.</li>\n <li><b>Geopolitical:</b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the biggest foundry around, is in a geopolitical hot zone amidst current China-US relations.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Ending Notes</b></p>\n<p>Every successive generation of AMD processors has had larger leaps in progress than the previous-gen vs Intel, for the past 5 years or so. The next batch are building off of strong technical foundations and are upgrading to the next node size every few years. When the company has demonstrated such momentum in their tech, there's little reason to expect it to change at least in the short term.</p>\n<p>In 2019 and 2020, the enthusiast market appropriately recognized the superiority of AMD's chips and began building their PCs with AMD desktop processors. Later last year, the company received a boost in sales as chip suppliers to both PlayStation and Xbox. However, the enterprise and by extension, the EESC (Enterprise, Embedded, & Semi-Custom) revenue didn't show meaningful growth until 2021. During this last Q2, the segment saw growth of 183% YoY, still contributing to <50% of the sales mix. Going forward, management expects it to contribute to more of the mix. As with many markets, enterprises tend to lag consumers in tech adoption but the long-term investors should rest assured that big enterprises have finally arrived at AMD's doorstep.</p>\n<p>Finally, any evaluation of the company is amiss if it doesn't acknowledge what Lisa Su & Co. have achieved taking the stock from <$2 to >$100 a share. There are very few CEOs I'd rate 10/10 and Lisa Su is one of them. She's in the same company as Satya Nadella, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. It just makes sense to keep betting on great management and great products. A thesis can be that simple sometimes and the price is fair despite the surge to $105+. The Abstract Portfolio is long AMD.</p>\n<p>Searching for more opportunities in tech & growth? Try out the Abstract Portfolio.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a504a35a61a34a2f19674e2ebdfbadc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Eats More Cake</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Eats More Cake\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 09:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444368-amd-eats-more-cake><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAMD had a great quarter, and the stock price was appropriately rewarded with a price surge. The company is not as supply-constrained as the market thought it would be.\nLong-term investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444368-amd-eats-more-cake\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444368-amd-eats-more-cake","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126440748","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD had a great quarter, and the stock price was appropriately rewarded with a price surge. The company is not as supply-constrained as the market thought it would be.\nLong-term investors should keep locked in on the bigger narrative. A $79B TAM that is not as outlandish, and a $30-$40 data center opportunity. AMD is still scratching the surface.\nSupply constraints may well continue to pose challenges. We should weigh the odds of middling growth against financials and valuations.\nAt an NTM EV/S of 7.7x and NTM EV/EBITDA of 30.3x, multiples are reasonable despite the uncertain supply scenario.\nThe Abstract Portfolio is long AMD.\n\nVlad Dmytrenko/iStock via Getty Images\nBy \"cake\", I mean \"market share\".\nIn my view, AMD's (AMD) bull case scenario is simple: market share gains with sustained technology leadership for years to come.\nWith the latest earnings results and seemingly big traction in the enterprise, data-centric, and server markets, the bull-case scenario is looking strong. I'd put the odds in AMD's favour to win going forward.\nNot So Supply-Constrained Now\nAMD's latest earnings results were stellar, beating on both revenue and earnings estimates. The company is firing on all cylinders. Check out these graphs with the latest Q2 results towards the right.\n\nSource:Q2 2021 Quarterly Results\nOver the past few quarters, we've seen substantial momentum in the fundamentals. Sales have accelerated (cake has been eaten), gross margins have expanded, and the company is comfortably free cash flow generative at a 23.1% margin in Q2. They can capture this kind of free cash flow because:\n\nThey have the best in class products in the computing market for most of their target applications, which translates to pricing power and profit-taking ability.\nThe world keeps wanting more computing power; the pandemic has accelerated demand and with AMD positioned with best in class products, it has benefitted from demand substantially outweighing supply.\n\nThe big concern heading into 2021 was the glass ceiling on sales growth for the semiconductor industry (and the fabless AMD) due to foundries like TSMC (TSM) and global running at max capacity with the ever-increasing demand across all computing applications. This Q2, AMD pleasantly surprised us by raising their FY2021 guidance to 60% YoY from the previous 50% YoY. The company has incrementally made progress in building up the supply every consecutive quarter and appears to be on track to close in late 2021 with higher growth rates. Lisa Su expects it to get easier in 2022.\n\n And what I've said previously is, certainly, we do see some level of constraints, but we are making progress each quarter. And we made progress in the second quarter that enabled us to exceed the original guidance. And as we go into the second half of the year, we're continuing to bring on extra supply each quarter, which is leading to the full year guidance raise that we have. I think it improves in 2022. We've been planning for significant growth. Our model is one where we're going to drive significant growth.\n - CEO Lisa Su,Q2 Earnings Transcript\n\nThe above statement is a reason to be optimistic. So the market rewarded AMD appropriately with a nice 2-3 day surge given the improved outlook. However, to properly contextualize whether AMD makes for a strong investment, it makes sense to look longer-term.\nHow Big Is The Cake?\nI don't think the market is fully factoring in the size of the opportunity at hand for AMD, shall it grow unhindered by supply constraints. Rewind back to 2019, and Intel (INTC) was recording $8-10B in sales per quarter for the data-centric market only. It was widely understood that Intel was the only name in town for the data centre and held most of the share back then. AMD's Q2 data centre revenue contributed to 20% of the $3.85B top-line, amounting to less than ~$1B. Theoretically, AMD can still be 5-8x in this market should it maintain its relatively obvious technological leadership going forward. While every growth business points towards an astronomic total addressable market relative to the current sales run-rate, I think it's worth taking AMD seriously on its targets.\nSource:AMD Investor Presentation\nThe company has been benchmarking a notch above both, the x86 market, and comparable ARM-based units for the time being. ARM-based chips can well be a long-term threat, but high Cap-Ex, R&D, and scaling mass operations may still take time. Apple and the big infrastructure providers (AWS, Azure, and GCP) are loading up their efforts on alternative architectures, but at least for now, it appears that the market opportunity is free to capture for AMD. It's worth mentioning that all three infrastructure providers also loaded up on AMD chips last quarter.\nAMD is a vanilla growth company and if this supply issue is subsiding, I don't see why it can't grow at 30%+ YoY for the coming 2-3 years should foundry capacity keep up as well. Semiconductors are known to be a cyclical industry, but at the moment AMD appears to be a straight growth company. There'll be ebbs and flows but when one business has clear technical superiority, the market responds with this straight-line demand.\nWeighing Future Supply Constraints\nThe biggest \"IF...\" to the long-term thesis revolves around future supply constraints. One can speculate on the capacity available at TSM at 5nm, 3nm and beyond, or speculate on the precise relationship and market dynamics that are influencing players getting the bigger contracts.\nIn my opinion, drawing any conclusions is difficult and only pertains to the short-term view as we're not quite sure where the fabs and contracts are going to end up in 2022 yet. The wiser outlook for me given my limited knowledge of the semi-market is to take AMD's guidance as my main data point and go from there. This may be overly simplistic but I've seen several experts turn out to be relatively \"hit or miss\" on the micro aspects of capacities, supply/demand, and inventory. After all, look at that big earnings surprise, despite the 20 or so sell-side analysts who apparently know stuff. A long-term thesis and a long-term view are simply easier to hold in my book and is almost consistently underrated by market participants.\nThe company has been slightly conservative for the past few quarters and chances are they're doing it again. A FY 60% YoY guidance does mean that there'll be substantial sales deceleration on a sequential basis and we won't get the big jumps we saw in Q1 and Q2 of this year. With 2022, who knows? TSM is building out capacity in Nanjing, China, and Arizona in the US, but the fabs are not particularly large and how that share will be allocated across clients or influence the overall mix of technologies remains somewhat of a mystery to me.\nWith this uncertainty, I propose that investors should weigh the financials and valuations against the long-term goal of a $75B TAM and the likelihood the company may get there.\nAMD Stock Valuation & Financials\n\nFY 2021 will most likely record +60% YoY growth as well as a 20%+ FCF margin. Both growth and profitability should be weighed in conjunction with relevant valuation multiples. Growth brings the future forward to us faster, thus delivering us excess returns on outperformance, and FCF indicates an expansion of the company's cash arsenal to spend over an acquisition, or future R&D and product development, or a sales force. With this current year, the numbers on both fronts are stellar.\nSource: Koyfin\nIf we are thinking long-term, an NTM EV/S of 7.7x and NTM EV/EBITDA of 30.3x is perfectly reasonable to me given current dynamics. This applies in both Xilinx and non-Xilinx scenarios. A sales growth of 20-25% YoY growth for the next 2-3 years is enough to justify holding AMD at the current price, in my opinion. That's not asking too much against the supply capacity issues, so I like the odds. We've seen a large surge in stock price, but the multiples are still relatively tame. Over a long-term period, these should compress steadily. FYI, +26%YoY for 3 years is double.\nAcross the current competitive landscape, I can't see Intel leapfrogging its own state of technology to deliver at scale any time soon. The reason they're able to hold their ground is due to fab constraints, but the fundamentals have been in secular decline. In my opinion, the technically talented Gelsinger at the helm offers strong leadership but big ships like Intel are slow to turn the course. It will take a monumental effort to catch up, and a completely separate challenge to produce at scale if they aren't doing it with in-house manufacturing capabilities. Contracting TSM for building Intel chips will likely lead to the same supply issues given their sheer size.\nARM developments on the other hand should continue to impress, but for the time being, I reckon AMD's tech and execution should hold momentum. As a result, the current price is worth holding on to from a risk/reward perspective for long-term investors.\nRisks\n\nLoss Of Tech Leadership:Other x86, ARM, or perhaps RISC-V based tech poses as a challenge.\nSupply Constraints:Issues can continue into 2022, there's a lot of ambiguity here. A FY 60% YoY guidance translates to deceleration in the coming quarters. Flatlining growth in 2022 may induce weaker price action.\nMacro:The economic and business cycles turn unfavourable for chip upgrades.\nSystemic:General broader market-based risk. AMD has had higher volatility compared to benchmarks and will likely continue to do so. Sell-offs may also lead to deep and elongated drawdowns.\nGeopolitical:Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the biggest foundry around, is in a geopolitical hot zone amidst current China-US relations.\n\nEnding Notes\nEvery successive generation of AMD processors has had larger leaps in progress than the previous-gen vs Intel, for the past 5 years or so. The next batch are building off of strong technical foundations and are upgrading to the next node size every few years. When the company has demonstrated such momentum in their tech, there's little reason to expect it to change at least in the short term.\nIn 2019 and 2020, the enthusiast market appropriately recognized the superiority of AMD's chips and began building their PCs with AMD desktop processors. Later last year, the company received a boost in sales as chip suppliers to both PlayStation and Xbox. However, the enterprise and by extension, the EESC (Enterprise, Embedded, & Semi-Custom) revenue didn't show meaningful growth until 2021. During this last Q2, the segment saw growth of 183% YoY, still contributing to <50% of the sales mix. Going forward, management expects it to contribute to more of the mix. As with many markets, enterprises tend to lag consumers in tech adoption but the long-term investors should rest assured that big enterprises have finally arrived at AMD's doorstep.\nFinally, any evaluation of the company is amiss if it doesn't acknowledge what Lisa Su & Co. have achieved taking the stock from <$2 to >$100 a share. There are very few CEOs I'd rate 10/10 and Lisa Su is one of them. She's in the same company as Satya Nadella, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. It just makes sense to keep betting on great management and great products. A thesis can be that simple sometimes and the price is fair despite the surge to $105+. The Abstract Portfolio is long AMD.\nSearching for more opportunities in tech & growth? Try out the Abstract Portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/807279909"}
精彩评论