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2021-08-02

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Expedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":805660121,"tweetId":"805660121","gmtCreate":1627876620263,"gmtModify":1633755686875,"author":{"id":4090202836844260,"idStr":"4090202836844260","authorId":4090202836844260,"authorIdStr":"4090202836844260","name":"jhkaine","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like me</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like me</body></html>","text":"Like me","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805660121","repostId":1190185935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190185935","pubTimestamp":1627874910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190185935?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190185935","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nExpedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are t","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Expedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are trading above pre-pandemic levels with travel not yet recovered.</li>\n <li>With business and international travel expected to pick up in late 2020 or early 2021, I believe the company is perfectly valued and situated to take advantage of steady growth.</li>\n <li>I am bullish on the company's 5-year prospects.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c936ae728a0a5e399ec9eb9f9d5a71d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ArtMarie/E+ via Getty Images\nTravel, in all of its forms, has taken the biggest hit from closures and lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic as flights were cancelled, hotels shuttered and individuals and companies reducing travel to near zero for nearly a year.\nExpedia (EXPE), through its various offerings, is a major player in the travel industry, where it offers a database of flights, hotels, car rentals, short-term apartment rentals, cruise bookings and more. During the pandemic, they've seen their revenues plunge from over $12 billion in 2019 to just over $5 billion in 2020 and subsequently suspended their dividend and reported a wide loss of over $1.5 billion for 2020.\nNow, with the recovery underway and retail travel reaching record reopening numbers, there are several positives and negatives to consider with Expedia. The negative one being share price, with them currently trading at roughly double where they were before the pandemic even started, yet travel is not expected to return to those levels for quite some time. The positive side of this is that we now have a clear indication that travel growth is expected to remain high for quite some time, allowing for higher industry valuations. Let's explore these catalysts and see where the company stands relative to the industry and its closest peers.\nNegative Approach: Overvalued? Competition?\nBefore getting to the share price and competitive parts of the conversation, let's explore some other negative elements to Expedia.\nDebt and interest expense had surged in2019following expansion into various industries and consolidation. Debt went from $4.2 billion in 2019 to $8.2 billion in 2020 and interest expense nearlydoubledas well, from under $200 million to $408 million in the most recent company update. This may have been a strategic mistake on behalf of the company since we're now expecting interest rates to increase over the coming years, meaning that the company can see interest expense nearly double and approach $750 million by 2023 if they don't put a plan to retire or restructure some of the debt.\nEven so, the company does have a high cash position and they can, in theory, use it to pay down some of their high interest debt earlier than expected to avoid this charge. I'll discuss their cash situation later in the article.\nThe main negative approach I had when I first saw the company's share price recovery in full effect is their valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down worldwide travel, the company was trading around the $120.00 per share levels and are now trading around $170.00 per share, roughly 50% higher at various peaks. This is happening even as travel, and revenues, are not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 24 months from now and even longer if we don't see the expected international travel pick up, since right now domestic travel surges are compensating for softer business and international travel.\nEven so, a look at the company's valuation and multiples based off analyst projections, along with what I believe will be a better-than-expected actual results from the company, shows that the company is, for lack of a better term, perfectly and fairly valued.\nCompany Valuation: Perfection\nLooking at the company's own projections isn't enough here, since competitive pressures remain high in this relatively saturated industry. Let's evaluate the company relative to Booking Holdings (BKNG), which is currently the world's largest online travel company and Expedia's closest competitor in the public markets.\nFirst, let's look at&nbsp;expected EPS growth&nbsp;through the next 5 years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8564ffd38e826bfa96a0864185eba3f\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nGiven that Expedia is coming out of a loss per share while Booking managed to maintain a profit, it's important to look at the expected growth from 2022 to 2025 to get a sense of comparison. Over that time period, Expedia is set to grow EPS by 82% while Booking is set to grow EPS by 62%. This given Expedia an advantage, I believe, in valuation multiples when compared to Booking. Let's look at multiples.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8870ade9bafc30cdd64dcaa252ef94\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"213\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nAs we can see, even though Expedia is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate over the next 5 years than Booking is, they're trading at slightly lower to even multiples. Now, it's possible that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is fairly valued, but I believe that based off the aforementioned factors and given that I believe Expedia can continue to enjoy higher margins (Expedia currently holds a 68% gross margin while Booking a 64% margin), that both cases are true and that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is ever-so-slightly undervalued.\nBalance Sheets and Other Competition\nThere are 2 more factors worth considering, one positive and one negative.\nThe positive factor is the company's balance sheet. Even though they hold a large debt position of over $8 billion and are likely to see interest expense rise as interest rates do, they hold one of their largest cash positions they've even had, aided by cost cutting initiatives throughout the pandemic, including suspending their dividend, a factor I'll get into in the next segment.\nExpedia currently holds almost$4.3 billionin cash and equivalents and another $23 million in short term investments. This puts their net debt position at under $4.5 billion with expected cash flows over the next few years being enough to cover interest and restructuring charges as interest rates inch higher.\nThe negative factor here is direct and indirect competition. As mentioned earlier, companies like Booking are their main competitive headwinds but there is also the constant possibility that new websites with superior algorithms may spur up at any moment and take away business. An example of this are various sites like Skyscanner (TCOM), which does to sites like Expedia what Expedia does to hotel and airlines sites and occasionally can find significant savings by booking with one of Expedia's competitors. The emergence of these sites won't hurt their core sales stream but can put significant pressure on the company's margins.\nAn inorganic way that the company faces competitive pressures is from the original airlines, hotel, car rental and cruise companies themselves, which in recent years have made a big push to develop their own websites, applications and rewards centers to incentivize customers to book directly with them, saving them the booking costs to these third party sites and apps like Expedia. As these competitive pressures grow, Expedia and other online travel booking companies can see their margin take a hit as they lower commissions and prices to adapt to the rising pressures.\nOverall: Perfectly Situated\nWith the industry overall and Expedia in particular expected to grow steadily over the next 5 years, as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic plunge, investors will likely enjoy a steady growth rate of around 8% annually from Expedia, which given current overall valuations, will almost certainly be higher than the overall market.\nAnother positive factor for Expedia is the return of their dividend. They suspended their dividend back in late 2020 to save costs as the pandemic raged on, keeping nearly $200 million annually in cash. As they stated in that same release, so this isn't just a wild speculation, I expect them to return the dividend as they recover and regain their cash flow generating capabilities.\nI don't know if they'll return to the $1.34 annual dividend for a yield of 0.83% annually, but I'll await further news related to their expected payout ratio. The speculative part of this is that we can see a jump in dividend payout given expected cash flows and it's possible we see a yield of over 1%, bringing total potential return closer to 10% annually, which can entice long term investors.\nOverall, I believe Expedia is perfectly valued and perfectly situated to take advantage of the steady growth back to and beyond levels we saw pre-pandemic as business and international travel bounces back late this year or early next year.\nI am bullish on Expedia's 5-year prospects.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 11:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443422-expedia-perfectly-valued-perfectly-situated>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nExpedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are trading above pre-pandemic levels with travel not yet recovered.\nWith business and international ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443422-expedia-perfectly-valued-perfectly-situated\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EXPE":"Expedia"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443422-expedia-perfectly-valued-perfectly-situated","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190185935","content_text":"Summary\n\nExpedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are trading above pre-pandemic levels with travel not yet recovered.\nWith business and international travel expected to pick up in late 2020 or early 2021, I believe the company is perfectly valued and situated to take advantage of steady growth.\nI am bullish on the company's 5-year prospects.\n\nArtMarie/E+ via Getty Images\nTravel, in all of its forms, has taken the biggest hit from closures and lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic as flights were cancelled, hotels shuttered and individuals and companies reducing travel to near zero for nearly a year.\nExpedia (EXPE), through its various offerings, is a major player in the travel industry, where it offers a database of flights, hotels, car rentals, short-term apartment rentals, cruise bookings and more. During the pandemic, they've seen their revenues plunge from over $12 billion in 2019 to just over $5 billion in 2020 and subsequently suspended their dividend and reported a wide loss of over $1.5 billion for 2020.\nNow, with the recovery underway and retail travel reaching record reopening numbers, there are several positives and negatives to consider with Expedia. The negative one being share price, with them currently trading at roughly double where they were before the pandemic even started, yet travel is not expected to return to those levels for quite some time. The positive side of this is that we now have a clear indication that travel growth is expected to remain high for quite some time, allowing for higher industry valuations. Let's explore these catalysts and see where the company stands relative to the industry and its closest peers.\nNegative Approach: Overvalued? Competition?\nBefore getting to the share price and competitive parts of the conversation, let's explore some other negative elements to Expedia.\nDebt and interest expense had surged in2019following expansion into various industries and consolidation. Debt went from $4.2 billion in 2019 to $8.2 billion in 2020 and interest expense nearlydoubledas well, from under $200 million to $408 million in the most recent company update. This may have been a strategic mistake on behalf of the company since we're now expecting interest rates to increase over the coming years, meaning that the company can see interest expense nearly double and approach $750 million by 2023 if they don't put a plan to retire or restructure some of the debt.\nEven so, the company does have a high cash position and they can, in theory, use it to pay down some of their high interest debt earlier than expected to avoid this charge. I'll discuss their cash situation later in the article.\nThe main negative approach I had when I first saw the company's share price recovery in full effect is their valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down worldwide travel, the company was trading around the $120.00 per share levels and are now trading around $170.00 per share, roughly 50% higher at various peaks. This is happening even as travel, and revenues, are not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 24 months from now and even longer if we don't see the expected international travel pick up, since right now domestic travel surges are compensating for softer business and international travel.\nEven so, a look at the company's valuation and multiples based off analyst projections, along with what I believe will be a better-than-expected actual results from the company, shows that the company is, for lack of a better term, perfectly and fairly valued.\nCompany Valuation: Perfection\nLooking at the company's own projections isn't enough here, since competitive pressures remain high in this relatively saturated industry. Let's evaluate the company relative to Booking Holdings (BKNG), which is currently the world's largest online travel company and Expedia's closest competitor in the public markets.\nFirst, let's look at expected EPS growth through the next 5 years.\n\nGiven that Expedia is coming out of a loss per share while Booking managed to maintain a profit, it's important to look at the expected growth from 2022 to 2025 to get a sense of comparison. Over that time period, Expedia is set to grow EPS by 82% while Booking is set to grow EPS by 62%. This given Expedia an advantage, I believe, in valuation multiples when compared to Booking. Let's look at multiples.\n\nAs we can see, even though Expedia is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate over the next 5 years than Booking is, they're trading at slightly lower to even multiples. Now, it's possible that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is fairly valued, but I believe that based off the aforementioned factors and given that I believe Expedia can continue to enjoy higher margins (Expedia currently holds a 68% gross margin while Booking a 64% margin), that both cases are true and that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is ever-so-slightly undervalued.\nBalance Sheets and Other Competition\nThere are 2 more factors worth considering, one positive and one negative.\nThe positive factor is the company's balance sheet. Even though they hold a large debt position of over $8 billion and are likely to see interest expense rise as interest rates do, they hold one of their largest cash positions they've even had, aided by cost cutting initiatives throughout the pandemic, including suspending their dividend, a factor I'll get into in the next segment.\nExpedia currently holds almost$4.3 billionin cash and equivalents and another $23 million in short term investments. This puts their net debt position at under $4.5 billion with expected cash flows over the next few years being enough to cover interest and restructuring charges as interest rates inch higher.\nThe negative factor here is direct and indirect competition. As mentioned earlier, companies like Booking are their main competitive headwinds but there is also the constant possibility that new websites with superior algorithms may spur up at any moment and take away business. An example of this are various sites like Skyscanner (TCOM), which does to sites like Expedia what Expedia does to hotel and airlines sites and occasionally can find significant savings by booking with one of Expedia's competitors. The emergence of these sites won't hurt their core sales stream but can put significant pressure on the company's margins.\nAn inorganic way that the company faces competitive pressures is from the original airlines, hotel, car rental and cruise companies themselves, which in recent years have made a big push to develop their own websites, applications and rewards centers to incentivize customers to book directly with them, saving them the booking costs to these third party sites and apps like Expedia. As these competitive pressures grow, Expedia and other online travel booking companies can see their margin take a hit as they lower commissions and prices to adapt to the rising pressures.\nOverall: Perfectly Situated\nWith the industry overall and Expedia in particular expected to grow steadily over the next 5 years, as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic plunge, investors will likely enjoy a steady growth rate of around 8% annually from Expedia, which given current overall valuations, will almost certainly be higher than the overall market.\nAnother positive factor for Expedia is the return of their dividend. They suspended their dividend back in late 2020 to save costs as the pandemic raged on, keeping nearly $200 million annually in cash. As they stated in that same release, so this isn't just a wild speculation, I expect them to return the dividend as they recover and regain their cash flow generating capabilities.\nI don't know if they'll return to the $1.34 annual dividend for a yield of 0.83% annually, but I'll await further news related to their expected payout ratio. The speculative part of this is that we can see a jump in dividend payout given expected cash flows and it's possible we see a yield of over 1%, bringing total potential return closer to 10% annually, which can entice long term investors.\nOverall, I believe Expedia is perfectly valued and perfectly situated to take advantage of the steady growth back to and beyond levels we saw pre-pandemic as business and international travel bounces back late this year or early next year.\nI am bullish on Expedia's 5-year prospects.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/805660121"}