Anser
2021-07-28
牛市信仰？
市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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19:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155005642","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"人们不愿慢慢变富。","content":"<p>作者：薛洪言</p>\n<p>这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股，买了就能赚钱，平安、万科等价格再低又如何，时间成本耗不起」。</p>\n<p>一句「时间成本耗不起」，便成为追涨杀跌的最好理由。价值投资之难，就难在这里，正如巴菲特的经典总结，「人们不愿慢慢变富」。</p>\n<p><b>可投资者满心期待立马赚钱时，买涨卖跌，换来换去，甘做股市中的「投降派」，恰恰又赚不到钱。</b></p>\n<p>霍华德·马克斯曾提出股市「三阶段」论，无论熊市还是牛市，其演绎过程都会经历三个阶段。</p>\n<p>以牛市为例，在牛市第一阶段，股票低估，市场一片悲观，只有少数人敢于买入并持有。到了第二阶段，基本面出现好转，越来越多的人买入，股价回归合理水平，价值回归时出现了明显的赚钱效应，让市场愈发乐观；于是，就进入第三阶段，市场对未来的预期越来越好，「**点不是梦、**点是牛市起点」等言论主导市场，诱发越来越多的人买入，股市急涨，加速赶顶，直至物极必反，熊市降临。</p>\n<p>熊市三阶段刚好相反，第一阶段，股价高位回落，只有少数人坚定逃离，多数人视下跌为抄底机会；到了第二阶段，基本面开始恶化，越来越多的人卖出，股价从高估跌至合理水平，但下跌带来的亏钱效应，让市场愈发悲观；接着进入第三阶段，市场预期越来越差，任何消息都被解读为坏消息，越来越多的人开始割肉卖出，股市步入恐慌下跌时期，加速寻底，直至物极必反，牛市降临。</p>\n<p><b>股市中的「投降派」，主要发生在第一阶段和第三阶段。</b></p>\n<p>在熊市第三阶段和牛市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是股票拿不住，越跌越心慌，最后因恐慌而清空持仓。当这些人纷纷卖出股票后，剩下的多是坚定持有者，卖方力量枯竭，慢慢就跌不动了，熊市第三阶段转变成牛市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」刚刚割肉卖出，坚定远离市场，也会错失牛市第一阶段的低估买入机会。</p>\n<p>在牛市第三阶段和熊市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是高位买入，前期镇定观望，对牛市行情视而不见，现在发现周围很多人都赚到了钱，觉得不能打败市场就加入市场，于是放弃抵抗、追高买入。当这些人纷纷追高买入后，市场买方力量开始枯竭，慢慢就涨不动了，牛市第三阶段开始转变为熊市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」仍沉浸在牛市赚钱效应中，坚定看好股市，把下跌视作抄底机会，越跌越买，仓位越来越重，直至深度套牢。</p>\n<p>可见，<b>股市里的「投降派」总是卖在低点、买在高点。道理很好懂，但落到投资实践中，很多人依旧会陷入这种怪圈。</b></p>\n<p>回到当前A股市场，科创、军工是否已到牛市第三阶段还不好说，相比历史表现，当前市盈率水平虽不低估，但仍较为合理。不过，市场中一大批价值股，估值水平确已跌至历史低点。</p>\n<p><img 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 19:00 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：薛洪言\n这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。\n在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155005642","content_text":"作者：薛洪言\n这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。\n在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股，买了就能赚钱，平安、万科等价格再低又如何，时间成本耗不起」。\n一句「时间成本耗不起」，便成为追涨杀跌的最好理由。价值投资之难，就难在这里，正如巴菲特的经典总结，「人们不愿慢慢变富」。\n可投资者满心期待立马赚钱时，买涨卖跌，换来换去，甘做股市中的「投降派」，恰恰又赚不到钱。\n霍华德·马克斯曾提出股市「三阶段」论，无论熊市还是牛市，其演绎过程都会经历三个阶段。\n以牛市为例，在牛市第一阶段，股票低估，市场一片悲观，只有少数人敢于买入并持有。到了第二阶段，基本面出现好转，越来越多的人买入，股价回归合理水平，价值回归时出现了明显的赚钱效应，让市场愈发乐观；于是，就进入第三阶段，市场对未来的预期越来越好，「**点不是梦、**点是牛市起点」等言论主导市场，诱发越来越多的人买入，股市急涨，加速赶顶，直至物极必反，熊市降临。\n熊市三阶段刚好相反，第一阶段，股价高位回落，只有少数人坚定逃离，多数人视下跌为抄底机会；到了第二阶段，基本面开始恶化，越来越多的人卖出，股价从高估跌至合理水平，但下跌带来的亏钱效应，让市场愈发悲观；接着进入第三阶段，市场预期越来越差，任何消息都被解读为坏消息，越来越多的人开始割肉卖出，股市步入恐慌下跌时期，加速寻底，直至物极必反，牛市降临。\n股市中的「投降派」，主要发生在第一阶段和第三阶段。\n在熊市第三阶段和牛市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是股票拿不住，越跌越心慌，最后因恐慌而清空持仓。当这些人纷纷卖出股票后，剩下的多是坚定持有者，卖方力量枯竭，慢慢就跌不动了，熊市第三阶段转变成牛市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」刚刚割肉卖出，坚定远离市场，也会错失牛市第一阶段的低估买入机会。\n在牛市第三阶段和熊市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是高位买入，前期镇定观望，对牛市行情视而不见，现在发现周围很多人都赚到了钱，觉得不能打败市场就加入市场，于是放弃抵抗、追高买入。当这些人纷纷追高买入后，市场买方力量开始枯竭，慢慢就涨不动了，牛市第三阶段开始转变为熊市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」仍沉浸在牛市赚钱效应中，坚定看好股市，把下跌视作抄底机会，越跌越买，仓位越来越重，直至深度套牢。\n可见，股市里的「投降派」总是卖在低点、买在高点。道理很好懂，但落到投资实践中，很多人依旧会陷入这种怪圈。\n回到当前A股市场，科创、军工是否已到牛市第三阶段还不好说，相比历史表现，当前市盈率水平虽不低估，但仍较为合理。不过，市场中一大批价值股，估值水平确已跌至历史低点。\n\n根据霍华德的三阶段论，熊市走到第三阶段，越来越多的持有人卖出，卖方力量日益枯竭，股价随时可能触底回升。这个时候，若转换阵营，恐成了股市里的「投降派」。\n很多人将「别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪」奉为圭臬，但在市场大跌之时，有多少人还敢于贪婪地买入呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":6994648,"commentId":"6994648","gmtCreate":1639587477868,"gmtModify":1639587895249,"authorId":3457684102278028,"author":{"id":3457684102278028,"idStr":"3457684102278028","authorId":3457684102278028,"name":"大牛牛孙悟空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee75cedd2a79140d752df33dc698079","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":801092149,"objectIdStr":"801092149","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/878772362","text":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/878772362","html":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/878772362","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":6994642,"commentId":"6994642","gmtCreate":1639587457606,"gmtModify":1639587895148,"authorId":3457684102278028,"author":{"id":3457684102278028,"idStr":"3457684102278028","authorId":3457684102278028,"name":"大牛牛孙悟空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee75cedd2a79140d752df33dc698079","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":801092149,"objectIdStr":"801092149","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/878772362","text":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/878772362","html":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/878772362","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5566340,"commentId":"5566340","gmtCreate":1629278187700,"gmtModify":1629278187700,"authorId":3549061435140532,"author":{"id":3549061435140532,"idStr":"3549061435140532","authorId":3549061435140532,"name":"廖牛牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0595d0333e4246072b6ab4b893e5b83","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":801092149,"objectIdStr":"801092149","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComme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