重新梳理一下,我有个大胆想法

2017-07-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

1.5月4日财报会议上,老🐎再三强调Model 3不是特斯拉的第三代车型，不是model S的升级,它其实是缩水版的Model s ,再三强调是否说明m3大量抢走ms订单

2.第二季度销售报告Model S和Model X车型的销量低于分析师预期,是因为电池4月和5月的产量问题，如果电池产量问题为啥之前没人讨论

3.最重要的是,特斯拉表示，如果全球经济环境不大幅恶化，今年下半年，Model S和Model X的销量预计将超过上半年。这个太可疑了,一个季度销售两三万辆车还要考虑全球经济大环境,在大多数人印象里特斯拉是不愁卖的,如果这点的销量大环境都对他有这么大的影响,那特斯拉还有什么钱途

这次大跌,又可能就是因为产量超过了销量

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

壹念之間
2017-07-06
壹念之間
美国现在整体汽车销量本来就在衰落，看看福特通用的财报就知道了…特斯拉上半年交货量同比增长了53%，已经是车企里最好的了…至于说如果经济崩溃了，那肯定大家都玩完，所以他这么说也没错，不用过度解读
- 壹念之間:
  不好意思我的数据看岔了，16万是2019年美国所有电动车的销量，特斯拉s和x的销量加起来是4.7万，占30%，刚好是2017年也就是今年上半年的产量…想想model3一年四五十万的产能，单这一项就是2016年所有电动车企产能16万的三四倍
- 壹念之間:
  model3确实对s和x有影响，所以最难熬的应该就是2017下半年，3的产量还没上来，s和x又受到影响，属于青黄不接的半年…但其实你想想，在去年3发布，订单突破40万的时候，这个影响就有了，可是看今年上半年s和x的销量，4万7，影响其实不大，这还是受产能影响，不然可以交付更多…一个原因就是很多不差钱又吃不消排队等3的用户，转单了，另外一个，接下去特斯拉会开拓很多国外市场，而在这些市场，你只能买sx
- 壹念之間回复威廉DD:
  除了特斯拉的车，现在卖的最好的其他品牌，应该就是雪佛兰bolt和宝马i3了吧，和model3差不多的售价，可是再看看他们面包一样的外形，还有更短的续航，估计是药丸
- 我容易吗我回复壹念之間:
  有数据就是有说服力，但是我没看明白16年特斯拉怎么卖了16万？都没产那么多啊
- 鹿王回复壹念之間:
  我是认为由于model3的原因,使model s订单大幅下滑,而不是电池产量原因,
我容易吗我
2017-07-06
我容易吗我
model3确实肩负着modelS的销售转化功能，我下的订单里强调说随时可以转成modelS或X。
- 我容易吗我回复壹念之間:
  是，这种转单还是比较容易的
- 壹念之間:
  还是会有很多吃不消排队等3的人转单的，所以不用太担心s和x的销量…谣传3的订单量已经90几万了嘛，来个1/10不差钱没耐心呢土豪，就够s和x卖的了
- 鹿王:
  m3的订单太多了
壹念之間
2017-07-06
壹念之間
这次电池产量问题，是因为更新升级100d电池组的生产线，更新完了以后，接下去生产速度会提高很多
我家猫会后空翻
2017-07-06
我家猫会后空翻
想太多，要不是之前随纳斯达克涨那么快，不会这样跌的。

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