wywy
2021-12-28
Long term yes. But don't expect it to rebound to previous high anytime soon.
Is DocuSign Stock A Buy Or Sell After Drop Post Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>第三季度盈利下降后，DocuSign股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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cutieee
2021-12-29
cutieee
The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Good luck.
qingg123
2021-12-29
qingg123
There's nothing I can do now but wait. Good luck to all of us.
cutieee
2021-12-29
cutieee
Don't lose heart. Everything will be all right.
RudolfKennedy
2021-12-29
RudolfKennedy
Rome was not built in a day. Be patient
yeppy
2021-12-29
yeppy
耐心等待。好运迟早会来的。
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But don't expect it to rebound to previous high anytime soon.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696645634","repostId":1189276746,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189276746","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640691015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189276746?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 19:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is DocuSign Stock A Buy Or Sell After Drop Post Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>第三季度盈利下降后，DocuSign股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189276746","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDocuSign has dropped 50% from recent highs after a disastrous earnings report.\nGrowth is pr","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>DocuSign has dropped 50% from recent highs after a disastrous earnings report.</li> <li>Growth is projected to slow down considerably with significant sequential deceleration.</li> <li>The company still maintains solid net retention rates and free cash flow generation.</li> <li>I rate shares a buy on account of the lower risk story.</li> </ul> DocuSign (DOCU) has shown investors the importance of factoring in valuation in their analysis. While DOCU benefits from an easy to understand story, strong net retention rates, and solid free cash flow generation, the stock was trading far too richly heading into the latest earnings, and was subsequently punished. The pullback has made the stock much more attractive, and I see upside assuming the stock can once again be rewarded for its lower risk profile in the tech sector. I rate shares a buy with 23% upside over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在发布灾难性的收益报告后，DocuSign的股价较近期高点下跌了50%。</li><li>预计增长将大幅放缓，并出现显着的连续减速。</li><li>该公司仍然保持稳健的净保留率和自由现金流生成。</li><li>由于风险较低，我将股票评级为买入。</li></ul>DocuSign(DOCU)向投资者展示了在分析中考虑估值的重要性。虽然DOCU受益于易于理解的故事、强劲的净保留率和稳健的自由现金流生成，但该股在最新财报发布前的交易过于丰富，随后受到了惩罚。回调使该股更具吸引力，假设该股能够再次因其在科技行业的较低风险状况而获得回报，我认为该股还有上涨空间。我将该股评级为买入，未来12个月上涨23%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DocuSign Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DocuSign股价</b></blockquote></p><p> DOCU joined the ranks of many pandemic winners in becoming post-pandemic losers. The stock collapsed after its latest earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>DOCU加入了许多疫情赢家的行列，成为大流行后的失败者。该股在最新的盈利看涨期权后暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45643addcbf35683ee41e3cd7dd36983\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is now trading at the same levels it did 1.5 years ago, in spite of strong growth during that time.</p><p><blockquote>尽管当时增长强劲，但该股目前的交易水平与1.5年前相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did DocuSign Stock Drop?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DocuSign股票为何下跌？</b></blockquote></p><p> As just stated, DOCU dropped after the latest earnings release. Growth was solid with subscription revenues growing 44%.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，DOCU在最新财报发布后下跌。增长稳健，订阅收入增长44%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7905112204b822af8b410713708bf38\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"601\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Much of that growth was driven by the strong 121% net dollar retention rate.</p><p><blockquote>这一增长很大程度上是由121%的强劲净美元保留率推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8a4d9c16893f6ddeb2aae0683f8e9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"614\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These aren’t bad results, even at the prices just before the crash.</p><p><blockquote>即使以崩盘前的价格计算，这些结果也不错。</blockquote></p><p> The problem was instead the guidance. DOCU guided for the next quarter to see up to $550 million in subscription revenue, representing only 34% year over year growth and only 4% sequential growth. Considering that DOCU was trading near 30x sales prior to the crash, it is not surprising that the stock fell after this projected growth rate, as it would be unusual for a stock to trade at 30x sales with 30% projected growth.</p><p><blockquote>相反，问题在于指导。DOCU预计下一季度的订阅收入将达到5.5亿美元，同比仅增长34%，环比仅增长4%。考虑到DOCU在崩盘前的交易价格接近30倍，该股在这一预计增长率之后下跌也就不足为奇了，因为一只股票在预计增长率为30%的情况下以30倍的销售额进行交易是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is DOCU Stock Undervalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DOCU股票被低估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> After the fall, Wall Street analysts rushed to cut their target prices. Yet in spite of the price cuts, DOCU remains undervalued relative to the average price target of $209 per share.</p><p><blockquote>下跌后，华尔街分析师纷纷下调目标价。然而，尽管降价，DOCU相对于每股209美元的平均目标价仍然被低估。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b810bbedbc6a5d0f0aa717eec1868424\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is DOCU Stock Expected To Rise Again?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DOCU股票有望再次上涨吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> While DOCU lost a lot of its bullish support, analysts in general remain bullish with an average rating of 3.9 out of 5.</p><p><blockquote>尽管DOCU失去了很多看涨支持，但分析师总体上仍然看涨，平均评级为3.9分（满分5分）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63d70c3ec760fcfefd1ab5cdceba46a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"323\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sure, the optimism has waned, but the stock price appears to have priced in the more humble outlook.</p><p><blockquote>当然，乐观情绪已经减弱，但股价似乎已经反映了更为温和的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is DocuSign Stock's Outlook?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DocuSign股票的前景如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, analysts expect growth to decelerate to 25% next year before hovering around 20% for the rest of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，分析师预计明年增长率将放缓至25%，然后在本十年剩余时间内徘徊在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ede17439e6d2853a50785552055c37f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"573\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That kind of growth rate looks reasonable considering the inevitable thesis of e-signatures. Analysts expect DOCU to achieve a 30% net margin in a decade, as operating leverage takes hold.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到电子签名不可避免的论点，这种增长率看起来是合理的。分析师预计，随着运营杠杆的发挥，DOCU将在十年内实现30%的净利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b92d98e51a504c29b94dca6db0a93b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"573\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is DOCU Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DOCU股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> At current prices, DOCU trades at 79x earnings and 15x sales. Are these multiples reasonable? It is important to remember that DOCU is the leader in the e-signature market, which has a $50 billion estimated total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>按目前价格计算，DOCU的市盈率为79倍，销售额为15倍。这些倍数合理吗？重要的是要记住，DOCU是电子签名市场的领导者，该市场的潜在市场总额估计为500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea622c36ad1eae675906fc47715f73cd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> DOCU has penetrated around 4% of that market, suggesting much more room to grow. In discussing valuation, we must also note that DOCU has historically generated strong profitability, with non-GAAP operating margin at 22% and free cash flow margin at 17% as of the latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>DOCU已渗透到该市场的4%左右，这表明还有更大的增长空间。在讨论估值时，我们还必须注意到，DOCU历来具有强劲的盈利能力，截至最近一个季度，非GAAP营业利润率为22%，自由现金流利润率为17%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb2151de6ee44444a1b6d562c70016e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sure, these metrics exclude stock-based compensation, which might not impact cash flow but does dilute shareholders. At the same time, strong non-GAAP profitability may be an indication of strong GAAP profitability in the future. For this reason, the stock deserves to trade at some premium to peers of similar growth rates. I typically would want to see a valuation of around 10x price to sales for a company growing at a 25% clip, but DOCU has earned the premium due to the strong net retention rate, solid profitability, and easy to understand growth story.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些指标不包括基于股票的薪酬，这可能不会影响现金流，但会稀释股东权益。同时，强劲的非公认会计准则盈利能力可能预示着未来强劲的公认会计准则盈利能力。因此，该股的交易价格应该高于增长率相似的同行。我通常希望看到一家以25%的速度增长的公司的市销率估值约为10倍，但DOCU因其强劲的净保留率、稳健的盈利能力和易于理解的增长故事而赢得了溢价。</blockquote></p><p> If I assume long term net margins of 40%, then the stock is currently trading at a 0.5x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’) based on 2030 estimates. I view a 2x PEG ratio to be more appropriate due to the lower risk story. That suggests 4x upside over the next nine years, for an annualized return of 16%. Incidentally, this would leave DOCU trading at 38x earnings in 2030, which appears reasonable for the projected growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>如果我假设长期净利润率为40%，那么根据2030年的预测，该股目前的市盈率(“PEG”)为0.5倍。我认为2倍的PEG比率更合适，因为风险较低。这表明未来九年将上涨4倍，年化回报率为16%。顺便说一句，这将使DOCU到2030年的市盈率达到38倍，这对于预计的增长率来说似乎是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Risks to the thesis include competition, as I admit that it is not obviously clear how important price competition is in the e-signature market. Perhaps DOCU can achieve benefits from the network effect, similar to that seen as PayPal (PYPL) or Shopify (SHOP), but my personal experience with DOCU (as a signer) has not shown this to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这篇论文的风险包括竞争，因为我承认目前还不清楚价格竞争在电子签名市场中有多重要。也许DOCU可以从网络效应中受益，类似于PayPal（PYPL）或Shopify（SHOP），但我个人使用DOCU（作为签名者）的经验并没有表明情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> DOCU’s strong profit margins should enable it to invest more aggressively than competitors, but investors should watch out for deterioration in the net retention rate. While DOCU might not offer as much upside as alternatives in the sector, the lower risk profile makes it an attractive risk-reward proposition in its own right. I rate shares a buy with 23% upside to a 1.5x PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>DOCU强劲的利润率应该使其能够比竞争对手更积极地投资，但投资者应该警惕净保留率的恶化。虽然DOCU可能不会像该行业的替代品那样提供那么大的优势，但较低的风险状况使其本身成为一个有吸引力的风险回报主张。我将该股评级为买入，PEG比率为1.5倍，上涨23%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is DocuSign Stock A Buy Or Sell After Drop Post Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>第三季度盈利下降后，DocuSign股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs DocuSign Stock A Buy Or Sell After Drop Post Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>第三季度盈利下降后，DocuSign股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-28 19:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>DocuSign has dropped 50% from recent highs after a disastrous earnings report.</li> <li>Growth is projected to slow down considerably with significant sequential deceleration.</li> <li>The company still maintains solid net retention rates and free cash flow generation.</li> <li>I rate shares a buy on account of the lower risk story.</li> </ul> DocuSign (DOCU) has shown investors the importance of factoring in valuation in their analysis. While DOCU benefits from an easy to understand story, strong net retention rates, and solid free cash flow generation, the stock was trading far too richly heading into the latest earnings, and was subsequently punished. The pullback has made the stock much more attractive, and I see upside assuming the stock can once again be rewarded for its lower risk profile in the tech sector. I rate shares a buy with 23% upside over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在发布灾难性的收益报告后，DocuSign的股价较近期高点下跌了50%。</li><li>预计增长将大幅放缓，并出现显着的连续减速。</li><li>该公司仍然保持稳健的净保留率和自由现金流生成。</li><li>由于风险较低，我将股票评级为买入。</li></ul>DocuSign(DOCU)向投资者展示了在分析中考虑估值的重要性。虽然DOCU受益于易于理解的故事、强劲的净保留率和稳健的自由现金流生成，但该股在最新财报发布前的交易过于丰富，随后受到了惩罚。回调使该股更具吸引力，假设该股能够再次因其在科技行业的较低风险状况而获得回报，我认为该股还有上涨空间。我将该股评级为买入，未来12个月上涨23%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DocuSign Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DocuSign股价</b></blockquote></p><p> DOCU joined the ranks of many pandemic winners in becoming post-pandemic losers. The stock collapsed after its latest earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>DOCU加入了许多疫情赢家的行列，成为大流行后的失败者。该股在最新的盈利看涨期权后暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45643addcbf35683ee41e3cd7dd36983\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is now trading at the same levels it did 1.5 years ago, in spite of strong growth during that time.</p><p><blockquote>尽管当时增长强劲，但该股目前的交易水平与1.5年前相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did DocuSign Stock Drop?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DocuSign股票为何下跌？</b></blockquote></p><p> As just stated, DOCU dropped after the latest earnings release. Growth was solid with subscription revenues growing 44%.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，DOCU在最新财报发布后下跌。增长稳健，订阅收入增长44%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7905112204b822af8b410713708bf38\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"601\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Much of that growth was driven by the strong 121% net dollar retention rate.</p><p><blockquote>这一增长很大程度上是由121%的强劲净美元保留率推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8a4d9c16893f6ddeb2aae0683f8e9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"614\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These aren’t bad results, even at the prices just before the crash.</p><p><blockquote>即使以崩盘前的价格计算，这些结果也不错。</blockquote></p><p> The problem was instead the guidance. DOCU guided for the next quarter to see up to $550 million in subscription revenue, representing only 34% year over year growth and only 4% sequential growth. Considering that DOCU was trading near 30x sales prior to the crash, it is not surprising that the stock fell after this projected growth rate, as it would be unusual for a stock to trade at 30x sales with 30% projected growth.</p><p><blockquote>相反，问题在于指导。DOCU预计下一季度的订阅收入将达到5.5亿美元，同比仅增长34%，环比仅增长4%。考虑到DOCU在崩盘前的交易价格接近30倍，该股在这一预计增长率之后下跌也就不足为奇了，因为一只股票在预计增长率为30%的情况下以30倍的销售额进行交易是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is DOCU Stock Undervalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DOCU股票被低估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> After the fall, Wall Street analysts rushed to cut their target prices. Yet in spite of the price cuts, DOCU remains undervalued relative to the average price target of $209 per share.</p><p><blockquote>下跌后，华尔街分析师纷纷下调目标价。然而，尽管降价，DOCU相对于每股209美元的平均目标价仍然被低估。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b810bbedbc6a5d0f0aa717eec1868424\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is DOCU Stock Expected To Rise Again?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DOCU股票有望再次上涨吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> While DOCU lost a lot of its bullish support, analysts in general remain bullish with an average rating of 3.9 out of 5.</p><p><blockquote>尽管DOCU失去了很多看涨支持，但分析师总体上仍然看涨，平均评级为3.9分（满分5分）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63d70c3ec760fcfefd1ab5cdceba46a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"323\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sure, the optimism has waned, but the stock price appears to have priced in the more humble outlook.</p><p><blockquote>当然，乐观情绪已经减弱，但股价似乎已经反映了更为温和的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is DocuSign Stock's Outlook?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DocuSign股票的前景如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, analysts expect growth to decelerate to 25% next year before hovering around 20% for the rest of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，分析师预计明年增长率将放缓至25%，然后在本十年剩余时间内徘徊在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ede17439e6d2853a50785552055c37f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"573\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That kind of growth rate looks reasonable considering the inevitable thesis of e-signatures. Analysts expect DOCU to achieve a 30% net margin in a decade, as operating leverage takes hold.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到电子签名不可避免的论点，这种增长率看起来是合理的。分析师预计，随着运营杠杆的发挥，DOCU将在十年内实现30%的净利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b92d98e51a504c29b94dca6db0a93b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"573\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is DOCU Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DOCU股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> At current prices, DOCU trades at 79x earnings and 15x sales. Are these multiples reasonable? It is important to remember that DOCU is the leader in the e-signature market, which has a $50 billion estimated total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>按目前价格计算，DOCU的市盈率为79倍，销售额为15倍。这些倍数合理吗？重要的是要记住，DOCU是电子签名市场的领导者，该市场的潜在市场总额估计为500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea622c36ad1eae675906fc47715f73cd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> DOCU has penetrated around 4% of that market, suggesting much more room to grow. In discussing valuation, we must also note that DOCU has historically generated strong profitability, with non-GAAP operating margin at 22% and free cash flow margin at 17% as of the latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>DOCU已渗透到该市场的4%左右，这表明还有更大的增长空间。在讨论估值时，我们还必须注意到，DOCU历来具有强劲的盈利能力，截至最近一个季度，非GAAP营业利润率为22%，自由现金流利润率为17%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb2151de6ee44444a1b6d562c70016e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sure, these metrics exclude stock-based compensation, which might not impact cash flow but does dilute shareholders. At the same time, strong non-GAAP profitability may be an indication of strong GAAP profitability in the future. For this reason, the stock deserves to trade at some premium to peers of similar growth rates. I typically would want to see a valuation of around 10x price to sales for a company growing at a 25% clip, but DOCU has earned the premium due to the strong net retention rate, solid profitability, and easy to understand growth story.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些指标不包括基于股票的薪酬，这可能不会影响现金流，但会稀释股东权益。同时，强劲的非公认会计准则盈利能力可能预示着未来强劲的公认会计准则盈利能力。因此，该股的交易价格应该高于增长率相似的同行。我通常希望看到一家以25%的速度增长的公司的市销率估值约为10倍，但DOCU因其强劲的净保留率、稳健的盈利能力和易于理解的增长故事而赢得了溢价。</blockquote></p><p> If I assume long term net margins of 40%, then the stock is currently trading at a 0.5x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’) based on 2030 estimates. I view a 2x PEG ratio to be more appropriate due to the lower risk story. That suggests 4x upside over the next nine years, for an annualized return of 16%. Incidentally, this would leave DOCU trading at 38x earnings in 2030, which appears reasonable for the projected growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>如果我假设长期净利润率为40%，那么根据2030年的预测，该股目前的市盈率(“PEG”)为0.5倍。我认为2倍的PEG比率更合适，因为风险较低。这表明未来九年将上涨4倍，年化回报率为16%。顺便说一句，这将使DOCU到2030年的市盈率达到38倍，这对于预计的增长率来说似乎是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Risks to the thesis include competition, as I admit that it is not obviously clear how important price competition is in the e-signature market. Perhaps DOCU can achieve benefits from the network effect, similar to that seen as PayPal (PYPL) or Shopify (SHOP), but my personal experience with DOCU (as a signer) has not shown this to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这篇论文的风险包括竞争，因为我承认目前还不清楚价格竞争在电子签名市场中有多重要。也许DOCU可以从网络效应中受益，类似于PayPal（PYPL）或Shopify（SHOP），但我个人使用DOCU（作为签名者）的经验并没有表明情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> DOCU’s strong profit margins should enable it to invest more aggressively than competitors, but investors should watch out for deterioration in the net retention rate. While DOCU might not offer as much upside as alternatives in the sector, the lower risk profile makes it an attractive risk-reward proposition in its own right. I rate shares a buy with 23% upside to a 1.5x PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>DOCU强劲的利润率应该使其能够比竞争对手更积极地投资，但投资者应该警惕净保留率的恶化。虽然DOCU可能不会像该行业的替代品那样提供那么大的优势，但较低的风险状况使其本身成为一个有吸引力的风险回报主张。我将该股评级为买入，PEG比率为1.5倍，上涨23%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476931-docusign-stock-buy-sell-post-q3-earnings\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476931-docusign-stock-buy-sell-post-q3-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189276746","content_text":"Summary\n\nDocuSign has dropped 50% from recent highs after a disastrous earnings report.\nGrowth is projected to slow down considerably with significant sequential deceleration.\nThe company still maintains solid net retention rates and free cash flow generation.\nI rate shares a buy on account of the lower risk story.\n\nDocuSign (DOCU) has shown investors the importance of factoring in valuation in their analysis. While DOCU benefits from an easy to understand story, strong net retention rates, and solid free cash flow generation, the stock was trading far too richly heading into the latest earnings, and was subsequently punished. The pullback has made the stock much more attractive, and I see upside assuming the stock can once again be rewarded for its lower risk profile in the tech sector. I rate shares a buy with 23% upside over the next 12 months.\nDocuSign Stock Price\nDOCU joined the ranks of many pandemic winners in becoming post-pandemic losers. The stock collapsed after its latest earnings call.\n\nThe stock is now trading at the same levels it did 1.5 years ago, in spite of strong growth during that time.\nWhy Did DocuSign Stock Drop?\nAs just stated, DOCU dropped after the latest earnings release. Growth was solid with subscription revenues growing 44%.\nInvestor Presentation\nMuch of that growth was driven by the strong 121% net dollar retention rate.\nInvestor Presentation\nThese aren’t bad results, even at the prices just before the crash.\nThe problem was instead the guidance. DOCU guided for the next quarter to see up to $550 million in subscription revenue, representing only 34% year over year growth and only 4% sequential growth. Considering that DOCU was trading near 30x sales prior to the crash, it is not surprising that the stock fell after this projected growth rate, as it would be unusual for a stock to trade at 30x sales with 30% projected growth.\nIs DOCU Stock Undervalued?\nAfter the fall, Wall Street analysts rushed to cut their target prices. Yet in spite of the price cuts, DOCU remains undervalued relative to the average price target of $209 per share.\nSeeking Alpha\nIs DOCU Stock Expected To Rise Again?\nWhile DOCU lost a lot of its bullish support, analysts in general remain bullish with an average rating of 3.9 out of 5.\nSeeking Alpha\nSure, the optimism has waned, but the stock price appears to have priced in the more humble outlook.\nWhat is DocuSign Stock's Outlook?\nLooking forward, analysts expect growth to decelerate to 25% next year before hovering around 20% for the rest of the decade.\nSeeking Alpha\nThat kind of growth rate looks reasonable considering the inevitable thesis of e-signatures. Analysts expect DOCU to achieve a 30% net margin in a decade, as operating leverage takes hold.\nSeeking Alpha\nIs DOCU Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?\nAt current prices, DOCU trades at 79x earnings and 15x sales. Are these multiples reasonable? It is important to remember that DOCU is the leader in the e-signature market, which has a $50 billion estimated total addressable market.\nInvestor Presentation\nDOCU has penetrated around 4% of that market, suggesting much more room to grow. In discussing valuation, we must also note that DOCU has historically generated strong profitability, with non-GAAP operating margin at 22% and free cash flow margin at 17% as of the latest quarter.\nInvestor Presentation\nSure, these metrics exclude stock-based compensation, which might not impact cash flow but does dilute shareholders. At the same time, strong non-GAAP profitability may be an indication of strong GAAP profitability in the future. For this reason, the stock deserves to trade at some premium to peers of similar growth rates. I typically would want to see a valuation of around 10x price to sales for a company growing at a 25% clip, but DOCU has earned the premium due to the strong net retention rate, solid profitability, and easy to understand growth story.\nIf I assume long term net margins of 40%, then the stock is currently trading at a 0.5x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’) based on 2030 estimates. I view a 2x PEG ratio to be more appropriate due to the lower risk story. That suggests 4x upside over the next nine years, for an annualized return of 16%. Incidentally, this would leave DOCU trading at 38x earnings in 2030, which appears reasonable for the projected growth rate.\nRisks to the thesis include competition, as I admit that it is not obviously clear how important price competition is in the e-signature market. Perhaps DOCU can achieve benefits from the network effect, similar to that seen as PayPal (PYPL) or Shopify (SHOP), but my personal experience with DOCU (as a signer) has not shown this to be the case.\nDOCU’s strong profit margins should enable it to invest more aggressively than competitors, but investors should watch out for deterioration in the net retention rate. While DOCU might not offer as much upside as alternatives in the sector, the lower risk profile makes it an attractive risk-reward proposition in its own right. I rate shares a buy with 23% upside to a 1.5x PEG ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3634,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":63,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7132726,"commentId":"7132726","gmtCreate":1640746170293,"gmtModify":1640746170293,"authorId":3479274690190267,"author":{"id":3479274690190267,"idStr":"3479274690190267","authorId":3479274690190267,"name":"cutieee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture12","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":696645634,"objectIdStr":"696645634","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Good luck.","text":"The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Good luck.","html":"The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Good luck.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7132730,"commentId":"7132730","gmtCreate":1640746205677,"gmtModify":1640746205677,"authorId":3479274793181513,"author":{"id":3479274793181513,"idStr":"3479274793181513","authorId":3479274793181513,"name":"qingg123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture140","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":696645634,"objectIdStr":"696645634","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"There's nothing I can do now but wait. Good luck to all of us.","text":"There's nothing I can do now but wait. Good luck to all of us.","html":"There's nothing I can do now but wait. Good luck to all of us.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7132724,"commentId":"7132724","gmtCreate":1640746146344,"gmtModify":1640746146344,"authorId":3479274690190267,"author":{"id":3479274690190267,"idStr":"3479274690190267","authorId":3479274690190267,"name":"cutieee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture12","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":696645634,"objectIdStr":"696645634","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Don't lose heart. Everything will be all right.","text":"Don't lose heart. Everything will be all right.","html":"Don't lose heart. Everything will be all right.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7132708,"commentId":"7132708","gmtCreate":1640746062054,"gmtModify":1640746062054,"authorId":9000000000000404,"author":{"id":9000000000000404,"idStr":"9000000000000404","authorId":9000000000000404,"name":"RudolfKennedy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bf2f8692df593c0e58239fd56abf27c","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":696645634,"objectIdStr":"696645634","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Rome was not built in a day. Be patient","text":"Rome was not built in a day. Be patient","html":"Rome was not built in a day. Be patient","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7132740,"commentId":"7132740","gmtCreate":1640746239889,"gmtModify":1640746239889,"authorId":3479274800160907,"author":{"id":3479274800160907,"idStr":"3479274800160907","authorId":3479274800160907,"name":"yeppy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture153","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":696645634,"objectIdStr":"696645634","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"耐心等待。好运迟早会来的。","text":"耐心等待。好运迟早会来的。","html":"耐心等待。好运迟早会来的。","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696645634"}
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