回港大家富
2022-01-12
开发商都到了,一片几万亿.这吹的风,就说明了问题多多,浑水名不虚传,干了几十年了
$贝壳(BEKE)$
@股市不倒翁:
渐渐萎缩,是贝壳的宿命
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
银河小铁骑00
2022-01-13
银河小铁骑00
贝壳我详细研究过,数据上应该是有一些问题,但是浑水的统计也确实有问题。
刀哥拉丝
2022-01-13
刀哥拉丝
浑水估计也没有想到是这种结果,踢到了钢板的感觉。
权力的游戏厅
2022-01-13
权力的游戏厅
浑水搞了这么多报告,结果人家股价不仅没跌,还涨了。
梅川洼子
2022-01-13
梅川洼子
问题可能是真的有的,不过呢,没有说的那么严重。
老夫的少女心_
2022-01-13
老夫的少女心_
做空股价还涨了,这是什么情况,我还等着抄底呢。
什么也没有了~
APP内打开
发表看法
5
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":694878900,"tweetId":"694878900","gmtCreate":1641921972900,"gmtModify":1641923041123,"author":{"id":4105024664250520,"idStr":"4105024664250520","authorId":4105024664250520,"authorIdStr":"4105024664250520","name":"回港大家富","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c535133b20102bd8f021cb3a4b35028b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>\n开发商都到了,一片几万亿.这吹的风,就说明了问题多多,浑水名不虚传,干了几十年了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>\n开发商都到了,一片几万亿.这吹的风,就说明了问题多多,浑水名不虚传,干了几十年了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a></body></html>","text":"开发商都到了,一片几万亿.这吹的风,就说明了问题多多,浑水名不虚传,干了几十年了$贝壳(BEKE)$","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694878900","repostId":696460555,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":696460555,"tweetId":"696460555","gmtCreate":1640748073116,"gmtModify":1641798277629,"author":{"id":3505706151977206,"idStr":"3505706151977206","authorId":3505706151977206,"authorIdStr":"3505706151977206","name":"股市不倒翁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f1c6ce755f9828d46c0c9bac734d78","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":62,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"5f4e0a7185a74ed196abff08008266de","categoryId":"b76d3c59fc044df59779c041b25852a6","name":"分享我的交易策略","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":5f4e0a7185a74ed196abff08008266de}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"交易策略分享,说一说自己在交易中的那些神操作吧,你的idea说不定价值百万!","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8eaff2e99964ab7a80d92cc196fcd3"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ab97ab31d183ca567738ae6b87cd8c","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ab97ab31d183ca567738ae6b87cd8c","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"title":"渐渐萎缩,是贝壳的宿命","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>渐渐萎缩,是贝壳的宿命</p> <p><br></p> <p><br></p> <p>聊聊贝壳 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a></p> <p><br></p> <p>同是被浑水做空,但这次贝壳股价却一动不动。我认为:此次的贝壳跟去年的瑞幸区别很大。是不会垮的。声明:以下都是主观看法……就当听个段子。</p> <p>浑水当然是很懂中国股票。创始人Carson Block是个聪明人。</p> <p>宏观:去年年初浑水看空贝壳时,正值新冠全球封城的时刻,瑞幸这样的实体经济很差……随时面临着彻底倒闭的风险。</p> <p>这次是地产业的黑暗拖累了贝壳的业绩,明眼人都能看出来,贝壳今年下半年乃至未来1-2年的业绩都很差。</p> <p>所以,浑水看空的宏观原因是很明朗的。</p> <p><br></p> <p>微观:瑞幸咖啡当时与星巴克、麦当劳咖啡和各种精品咖啡店并无质的区别,竞争强劲;而贝壳是最大的中介。这一点,是贝壳的优势。</p> <p><br></p> <p>筹码:瑞幸当时筹码较为分散,且大股东已经提前质押股权;贝壳这次筹码集中(但不清楚大股东有没有质押股权)。 贝壳现阶段现金流还可以,我猜测质押没有。那筹码分散当然方便对冲基金做空。【绿光资本2019年做空特斯拉就是因为特斯拉股权分散且马斯克质押了股份】</p> <p><br></p> <p>公司高管: 瑞幸咖啡大股东都要质押跑路,创业团队一开始就是奔着赚钱去的(号称中国最快的IPO) 初心不正,所以一看不行了就干脆自己主动爆空,趁最后还要在二级市场割一把;贝壳好歹团队做房子中介10多年了……而且公司存在职业经理人还能领高工资(创始人已经离世),这公司垮了上哪里就职。所以我们看到,面对浑水做空,贝壳表现强硬。</p> <p><br></p> <p>政策面:全国卖咖啡的很多,不缺瑞幸一家;但大规模的房子中介,贝壳这样的存在也是对地方财政收入的利好。</p> <p><br></p> <p>综上,能看到贝壳只是宏观面不利,其他还行。但,面对恶化的现金流,贝壳的中短期颓势是肯定的。。接下来,要么政策禁止(可能较小);要么高管跑路(可能也较小),这两种情况贝壳大崩盘。</p> <p>要知道,去年初做空瑞幸的Lone Pine还在贝壳里面呢……</p> <p><br></p> <p>但是,贝壳未来更多的是像<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">$趣头条(QTT)$</a>那样亏损的互联网公司慢慢萎缩,裁员;再萎缩,裁员,这个可能有80%。大崩盘概率较小……</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ab97ab31d183ca567738ae6b87cd8c\" tg-width=\"3024\" tg-height=\"4032\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>渐渐萎缩,是贝壳的宿命</p> <p><br></p> <p><br></p> <p>聊聊贝壳 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a></p> <p><br></p> <p>同是被浑水做空,但这次贝壳股价却一动不动。我认为:此次的贝壳跟去年的瑞幸区别很大。是不会垮的。声明:以下都是主观看法……就当听个段子。</p> <p>浑水当然是很懂中国股票。创始人Carson Block是个聪明人。</p> <p>宏观:去年年初浑水看空贝壳时,正值新冠全球封城的时刻,瑞幸这样的实体经济很差……随时面临着彻底倒闭的风险。</p> <p>这次是地产业的黑暗拖累了贝壳的业绩,明眼人都能看出来,贝壳今年下半年乃至未来1-2年的业绩都很差。</p> <p>所以,浑水看空的宏观原因是很明朗的。</p> <p><br></p> <p>微观:瑞幸咖啡当时与星巴克、麦当劳咖啡和各种精品咖啡店并无质的区别,竞争强劲;而贝壳是最大的中介。这一点,是贝壳的优势。</p> <p><br></p> <p>筹码:瑞幸当时筹码较为分散,且大股东已经提前质押股权;贝壳这次筹码集中(但不清楚大股东有没有质押股权)。 贝壳现阶段现金流还可以,我猜测质押没有。那筹码分散当然方便对冲基金做空。【绿光资本2019年做空特斯拉就是因为特斯拉股权分散且马斯克质押了股份】</p> <p><br></p> <p>公司高管: 瑞幸咖啡大股东都要质押跑路,创业团队一开始就是奔着赚钱去的(号称中国最快的IPO) 初心不正,所以一看不行了就干脆自己主动爆空,趁最后还要在二级市场割一把;贝壳好歹团队做房子中介10多年了……而且公司存在职业经理人还能领高工资(创始人已经离世),这公司垮了上哪里就职。所以我们看到,面对浑水做空,贝壳表现强硬。</p> <p><br></p> <p>政策面:全国卖咖啡的很多,不缺瑞幸一家;但大规模的房子中介,贝壳这样的存在也是对地方财政收入的利好。</p> <p><br></p> <p>综上,能看到贝壳只是宏观面不利,其他还行。但,面对恶化的现金流,贝壳的中短期颓势是肯定的。。接下来,要么政策禁止(可能较小);要么高管跑路(可能也较小),这两种情况贝壳大崩盘。</p> <p>要知道,去年初做空瑞幸的Lone Pine还在贝壳里面呢……</p> <p><br></p> <p>但是,贝壳未来更多的是像<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">$趣头条(QTT)$</a>那样亏损的互联网公司慢慢萎缩,裁员;再萎缩,裁员,这个可能有80%。大崩盘概率较小……</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ab97ab31d183ca567738ae6b87cd8c\" tg-width=\"3024\" tg-height=\"4032\"></p></body></html>","text":"渐渐萎缩,是贝壳的宿命 聊聊贝壳 $贝壳(BEKE)$ 同是被浑水做空,但这次贝壳股价却一动不动。我认为:此次的贝壳跟去年的瑞幸区别很大。是不会垮的。声明:以下都是主观看法……就当听个段子。 浑水当然是很懂中国股票。创始人Carson Block是个聪明人。 宏观:去年年初浑水看空贝壳时,正值新冠全球封城的时刻,瑞幸这样的实体经济很差……随时面临着彻底倒闭的风险。 这次是地产业的黑暗拖累了贝壳的业绩,明眼人都能看出来,贝壳今年下半年乃至未来1-2年的业绩都很差。 所以,浑水看空的宏观原因是很明朗的。 微观:瑞幸咖啡当时与星巴克、麦当劳咖啡和各种精品咖啡店并无质的区别,竞争强劲;而贝壳是最大的中介。这一点,是贝壳的优势。 筹码:瑞幸当时筹码较为分散,且大股东已经提前质押股权;贝壳这次筹码集中(但不清楚大股东有没有质押股权)。 贝壳现阶段现金流还可以,我猜测质押没有。那筹码分散当然方便对冲基金做空。【绿光资本2019年做空特斯拉就是因为特斯拉股权分散且马斯克质押了股份】 公司高管: 瑞幸咖啡大股东都要质押跑路,创业团队一开始就是奔着赚钱去的(号称中国最快的IPO) 初心不正,所以一看不行了就干脆自己主动爆空,趁最后还要在二级市场割一把;贝壳好歹团队做房子中介10多年了……而且公司存在职业经理人还能领高工资(创始人已经离世),这公司垮了上哪里就职。所以我们看到,面对浑水做空,贝壳表现强硬。 政策面:全国卖咖啡的很多,不缺瑞幸一家;但大规模的房子中介,贝壳这样的存在也是对地方财政收入的利好。 综上,能看到贝壳只是宏观面不利,其他还行。但,面对恶化的现金流,贝壳的中短期颓势是肯定的。。接下来,要么政策禁止(可能较小);要么高管跑路(可能也较小),这两种情况贝壳大崩盘。 要知道,去年初做空瑞幸的Lone Pine还在贝壳里面呢…… 但是,贝壳未来更多的是像$趣头条(QTT)$那样亏损的互联网公司慢慢萎缩,裁员;再萎缩,裁员,这个可能有80%。大崩盘概率较小……","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696460555","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["QTT","BEKE"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1501,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["BEKE"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":87,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7175557,"commentId":"7175557","gmtCreate":1642081592275,"gmtModify":1642081592275,"authorId":9000000000000481,"author":{"id":9000000000000481,"idStr":"9000000000000481","authorId":9000000000000481,"name":"银河小铁骑00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631beb8e4e432c5add0866e8379057d","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694878900,"objectIdStr":"694878900","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"贝壳我详细研究过,数据上应该是有一些问题,但是浑水的统计也确实有问题。","text":"贝壳我详细研究过,数据上应该是有一些问题,但是浑水的统计也确实有问题。","html":"贝壳我详细研究过,数据上应该是有一些问题,但是浑水的统计也确实有问题。","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7175555,"commentId":"7175555","gmtCreate":1642081541241,"gmtModify":1642081541241,"authorId":9000000000000314,"author":{"id":9000000000000314,"idStr":"9000000000000314","authorId":9000000000000314,"name":"刀哥拉丝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e51a63f0a1a13425ecd08fb8583607a","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694878900,"objectIdStr":"694878900","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"浑水估计也没有想到是这种结果,踢到了钢板的感觉。","text":"浑水估计也没有想到是这种结果,踢到了钢板的感觉。","html":"浑水估计也没有想到是这种结果,踢到了钢板的感觉。","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7175553,"commentId":"7175553","gmtCreate":1642081468223,"gmtModify":1642081468223,"authorId":9000000000000628,"author":{"id":9000000000000628,"idStr":"9000000000000628","authorId":9000000000000628,"name":"权力的游戏厅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/067cda6133365badca6b51d9248d2066","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694878900,"objectIdStr":"694878900","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"浑水搞了这么多报告,结果人家股价不仅没跌,还涨了。","text":"浑水搞了这么多报告,结果人家股价不仅没跌,还涨了。","html":"浑水搞了这么多报告,结果人家股价不仅没跌,还涨了。","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7175551,"commentId":"7175551","gmtCreate":1642081434386,"gmtModify":1642081434386,"authorId":9000000000000633,"author":{"id":9000000000000633,"idStr":"9000000000000633","authorId":9000000000000633,"name":"梅川洼子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcc68c43d8beb98df1558b5d44394d9","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694878900,"objectIdStr":"694878900","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"问题可能是真的有的,不过呢,没有说的那么严重。","text":"问题可能是真的有的,不过呢,没有说的那么严重。","html":"问题可能是真的有的,不过呢,没有说的那么严重。","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7175558,"commentId":"7175558","gmtCreate":1642081625485,"gmtModify":1642081625485,"authorId":3479274702625278,"author":{"id":3479274702625278,"idStr":"3479274702625278","authorId":3479274702625278,"name":"老夫的少女心_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf1da32355d7fcd455bcb763ef83cd5","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694878900,"objectIdStr":"694878900","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"做空股价还涨了,这是什么情况,我还等着抄底呢。","text":"做空股价还涨了,这是什么情况,我还等着抄底呢。","html":"做空股价还涨了,这是什么情况,我还等着抄底呢。","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/694878900"}
精彩评论