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2022-01-13
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NIO: Time To Break Free
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Despite what I consider to be a solid 2021 and good prospects for 2022, the share price ended the year well below its all-time high. Is there something investors are missing? What are the risks, challenges, and opportunities going into 2022?</p><p>Although competition is certainly intensifying, I see various catalysts going forward, and I maintain my conviction that NIO will be one of the big winners in the EV space.</p><p>2021: When Fundamentals Don't Meet Technicals</p><p>The year has been significantly volatile, and NIO is no exception.</p><p>The company entered 2021 with a great rally that took shares from under $15 in September to over $60 by January. The rest of 2021 saw a continued slide in the share price, with NIO shares now hovering around $30.</p><p>However, as I've mentioned before, I don't see the recent price depreciation corresponding to fundamental changes. If anything, NIO has made good moves in 2021 and shown great progress.</p><p>Firstly, the company made great deals with large energy companies such as China's Sinopec(NYSE:SHI) and Royal Dutch Shell(NYSE:RDS.A). This was done to accelerate the rollout of NIO's charging stations and Battery Swap stations, of which it plans to have 4000 by 2025.</p><p>Secondly, NIO has now expanded its operations to Norway, and it will continue to do so in 2022, entering five new European countries. Expanding internationally is a must if NIO wants to maintain high growth rates.</p><p>Lastly, while the company has had some weak months, overall deliveries have grown to the tune of 109% in 2021. Furthermore, bear in mind that, with the construction of the NeoPark.</p><p>The NeoPark will act as a hub for EV companies, and NIO is the main investor. This EV facility is set to have a production value of 500 billion yuan per year,and it should be a good way for NIO to achieve better control over its production.</p><p>What To Expect In 2022</p><p>With that said, 2022 promises to be a challenging year for NIO and the overall EV industry. If you think the competition was intense in 2021, it is about to get a lot more intense. The year behind us saw the rise of many EV startups, like Chinese-owned XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI). More recently, we saw Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)backed Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)make its market debut.</p><p>In 2022, however, I'd expect to see much more pressure coming from the "big boys". Legacy car manufacturers are not oblivious to what is happening around them and have been working hard in 2021 to compete in the EV space. Those efforts will begin to pay off this year and the next.</p><p>Analysts recently pointed to this reality, and companies like Volkswagen(OTCPK:VLKAF), which has the second best-selling EV in Europe, and General Motors(NYSE:GM), which recently landed an EV van deal with Amazon, will be at the centre stage.</p><p>The other main challenges in 2022 will be supply constraints and margin suppression due to the increased cost of goods. The most obvious case of this is lithium, which is needed to make batteries. Some analysts believe this could be a challenge moving forward and lithium is not the only component that could be in short supply. Most industries around the world are also competing for semiconductors.</p><p>Lastly, NIO will have to battle with the regulatory challenges from China, and its share price may still be burdened by the fear of the CCP narrative.</p><p>Why I Like NIO Better Than Chinese EVs And Even Tesla</p><p>Despite all these challenges, I still think 2022 will be a good year for EVs and NIO in particular.</p><p>First off, I think the anti-Chinese narrative will die down in 2022, and we are already seeing clear evidence of this. Fellow SA contributor Bohdan Kucheriavyi pointed this out in this great article.</p><p>Chinese officials have stated that they will not be banning the VIE structure, and the Chinese government has also lifted limitations on foreign investment in auto manufacturing.</p><p>This will be a helping hand to NIO and its Chinese peers, but NIO still has better prospects than the others in 2022, and one of the reasons also relates to regulation. China will be reducing EV subsidies by 30%in 2022. These subsidies apply to vehicles priced under $42,000. The thing is, NIO's cars are generally more expensive than this, as they are high-end. This subsidy reduction will effectively render NIO's cars more competitive vis-a-vis its lower-priced peers.</p><p>And why do I like NIO more than Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)? Valuation is a factor, with NIO trading at much more attractive metrics.</p><p>According to data from Seeking Alpha, NIO has a P/S of 8.78, EV/Sales of 7.65, and a Price to Book of 12.31. Compare this to Tesla's P/S of 21.27, EV/Sales of 19.74, and Price to Book of 38.11. Granted, Tesla has a more favourable Price/Cash flow of 104.07 vs NIO's 121.02, but the latter is a younger company, and I'd expect profitability to catch up.</p><p>However, what makes the most difference for me is NIO's presence in the Chinese market and its connection with the government. During the pandemic, NIO received$1.4 billion in aid from the government. Specifically, the government of Hefei offered NIO this cash injection in return for setting up shop in their city. Furthermore, consider that NIO's cars are currently produced by JAC Motors, a government-controlled entity.</p><p>Yes, Tesla still dominates in China, but it is a foreign company, and the Chinese won't necessarily keep helping Musk. What if lithium, most of which China controls, runs low? Who do you think will be first in line to get it?</p><p>Takeaway</p><p>NIO kicks off 2021 at a multi-month low, making it an attractive opportunity to enter or add to an existing position. While I like the fundamental story, we must be wary of curveballs that the market can throw at us. China, supply issues and even the Fed could derail the advance in share prices in the short term. However, my main expectation is that NIO will finally break free of all the noise and speculation which has held down the stock in 2021.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Time To Break Free</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Time To Break Free\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-11 11:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478759-nio-stock-risks-opportunities-2022><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO shares sit at multi-month lows despite strong operational performance.The CCP is loosening its grip, and NIO is in the midst of international expansion.2022 will be a year full of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478759-nio-stock-risks-opportunities-2022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478759-nio-stock-risks-opportunities-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116515850","content_text":"SummaryNIO shares sit at multi-month lows despite strong operational performance.The CCP is loosening its grip, and NIO is in the midst of international expansion.2022 will be a year full of challenges and risks, but I still think NIO will thrive.Thesis SummaryNIO Inc (NIO) is a Chinese EV company with global ambitions. Despite what I consider to be a solid 2021 and good prospects for 2022, the share price ended the year well below its all-time high. Is there something investors are missing? What are the risks, challenges, and opportunities going into 2022?Although competition is certainly intensifying, I see various catalysts going forward, and I maintain my conviction that NIO will be one of the big winners in the EV space.2021: When Fundamentals Don't Meet TechnicalsThe year has been significantly volatile, and NIO is no exception.The company entered 2021 with a great rally that took shares from under $15 in September to over $60 by January. The rest of 2021 saw a continued slide in the share price, with NIO shares now hovering around $30.However, as I've mentioned before, I don't see the recent price depreciation corresponding to fundamental changes. If anything, NIO has made good moves in 2021 and shown great progress.Firstly, the company made great deals with large energy companies such as China's Sinopec(NYSE:SHI) and Royal Dutch Shell(NYSE:RDS.A). This was done to accelerate the rollout of NIO's charging stations and Battery Swap stations, of which it plans to have 4000 by 2025.Secondly, NIO has now expanded its operations to Norway, and it will continue to do so in 2022, entering five new European countries. Expanding internationally is a must if NIO wants to maintain high growth rates.Lastly, while the company has had some weak months, overall deliveries have grown to the tune of 109% in 2021. Furthermore, bear in mind that, with the construction of the NeoPark.The NeoPark will act as a hub for EV companies, and NIO is the main investor. This EV facility is set to have a production value of 500 billion yuan per year,and it should be a good way for NIO to achieve better control over its production.What To Expect In 2022With that said, 2022 promises to be a challenging year for NIO and the overall EV industry. If you think the competition was intense in 2021, it is about to get a lot more intense. The year behind us saw the rise of many EV startups, like Chinese-owned XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI). More recently, we saw Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)backed Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)make its market debut.In 2022, however, I'd expect to see much more pressure coming from the \"big boys\". Legacy car manufacturers are not oblivious to what is happening around them and have been working hard in 2021 to compete in the EV space. Those efforts will begin to pay off this year and the next.Analysts recently pointed to this reality, and companies like Volkswagen(OTCPK:VLKAF), which has the second best-selling EV in Europe, and General Motors(NYSE:GM), which recently landed an EV van deal with Amazon, will be at the centre stage.The other main challenges in 2022 will be supply constraints and margin suppression due to the increased cost of goods. The most obvious case of this is lithium, which is needed to make batteries. Some analysts believe this could be a challenge moving forward and lithium is not the only component that could be in short supply. Most industries around the world are also competing for semiconductors.Lastly, NIO will have to battle with the regulatory challenges from China, and its share price may still be burdened by the fear of the CCP narrative.Why I Like NIO Better Than Chinese EVs And Even TeslaDespite all these challenges, I still think 2022 will be a good year for EVs and NIO in particular.First off, I think the anti-Chinese narrative will die down in 2022, and we are already seeing clear evidence of this. Fellow SA contributor Bohdan Kucheriavyi pointed this out in this great article.Chinese officials have stated that they will not be banning the VIE structure, and the Chinese government has also lifted limitations on foreign investment in auto manufacturing.This will be a helping hand to NIO and its Chinese peers, but NIO still has better prospects than the others in 2022, and one of the reasons also relates to regulation. China will be reducing EV subsidies by 30%in 2022. These subsidies apply to vehicles priced under $42,000. The thing is, NIO's cars are generally more expensive than this, as they are high-end. This subsidy reduction will effectively render NIO's cars more competitive vis-a-vis its lower-priced peers.And why do I like NIO more than Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)? Valuation is a factor, with NIO trading at much more attractive metrics.According to data from Seeking Alpha, NIO has a P/S of 8.78, EV/Sales of 7.65, and a Price to Book of 12.31. Compare this to Tesla's P/S of 21.27, EV/Sales of 19.74, and Price to Book of 38.11. Granted, Tesla has a more favourable Price/Cash flow of 104.07 vs NIO's 121.02, but the latter is a younger company, and I'd expect profitability to catch up.However, what makes the most difference for me is NIO's presence in the Chinese market and its connection with the government. During the pandemic, NIO received$1.4 billion in aid from the government. Specifically, the government of Hefei offered NIO this cash injection in return for setting up shop in their city. Furthermore, consider that NIO's cars are currently produced by JAC Motors, a government-controlled entity.Yes, Tesla still dominates in China, but it is a foreign company, and the Chinese won't necessarily keep helping Musk. What if lithium, most of which China controls, runs low? Who do you think will be first in line to get it?TakeawayNIO kicks off 2021 at a multi-month low, making it an attractive opportunity to enter or add to an existing position. While I like the fundamental story, we must be wary of curveballs that the market can throw at us. China, supply issues and even the Fed could derail the advance in share prices in the short term. However, my main expectation is that NIO will finally break free of all the noise and speculation which has held down the stock in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/694277168"}
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