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2021-12-30
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The Bull Market Keeps Running Thanks to Growing Profit Forecasts
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The answer once again is uncanny resilience in the key measure of American corporate health.</p><p>As scary as all the headlines have been, they have yet to enact any appreciable harm on forecasts for S&P 500 earnings. Rather than fall, as case counts climb and the global recovery comes under increasingly worrisome threats, estimated 2022 income for firms in the index actually climbed about $1 to $220.40 a share in the last month.</p><p>It’s possible that analysts have just been slow cutting numbers as the post-pandemic rally approaches its third year. Certainly, some money managers have raised cash holdings and cut equity exposure in anticipation of a worsening economy.</p><p>But bulls are acting as though stable profit estimates are believable and unlikely to change. In a year rife with antagonists, from waves of coronavirus outbreaks to supply chain bottlenecks, it’s record earnings per share that kept the bull case intact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a815e0ad9f97c89562732146ad5fc27\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>“Healthy economic and EPS growth acts as a foundation under a market which is driven by chronic fears,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, who expects 2022 profits to come in at $240 a share. “You can be worried about Covid, inflation, the Fed, China, Robinhood, SPACs, valuations, etc. But every quarter, EPS keep coming in better than expected, forcing the consensus to upgrade forecasts. And this brings ‘dip buyers’ whenever we have any meaningful pullback.”</p><p>Investor nerves were tested in December when Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced plans to end the central bank’s asset-buying program earlier and signaled rate hikes for 2022 to fight inflation. Prospects for higher rates and slower growth sparked a quick exodus from risky assets. Technology firms that are unprofitable bore the brunt of selling. So did shares of newly public companies, many of which have yet to make money.</p><p>But the S&P 500, tracking large and established firms, has stood relatively firm, hovering within 4% of its all-time high thanks to strength on the bottom line. While the index’s 27% rally struck many as hard to explain, the pace of its appreciation has roughly matched the increase in the estimated earnings this year. In other words, the share gains have been driven by improving fundamentals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f4fdee9906fe55ca6b5ed7bfeec706\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even inflation -- public enemy No. 1 in the fixed income market -- has mostly been a tail wind for large-cap companies. Thanks to the ability to pass on higher costs to end users,profit margin, a measure of how much a business can keep its revenue as income, has widened to a record and according to analysts is expected to expand in the following two years.</p><p>While not every company is able to defend its profitability amid mounting pricing pressures, those that can are winning. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of stocks with stable high margins has outperformed that with less pricing power by 7 percentage points this quarter, the most since the pandemic trough in March 2020.</p><p>“What we really want to find are companies with pricing power,” said Giorgio Caputo, senior portfolio manager at J O Hambro Capital Management. “In an inflationary environment, that’s the gift that keeps on giving because companies can pass along their pricing on the way up, and don’t necessarily need to get it back on the way down.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fced9f404864a7497024513db7de9ee\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now as the year draws to a close, “play defensive” has replaced “fear of missing out” as the market’s mantra. In Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey, global money managers this month boosted their cash holdings to the highest level since May 2020 while trimming their stock exposure to a 13-month low.</p><p>Yet amid a cacophony of macroeconomic stressors, the robust earnings picture is pretty much intact. For the fourth-quarter earnings season that’s about to start in coming weeks, S&P 500 companies are expected to report a 19% jump in profits, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.</p><p>If the recent history is any guide, analysts may have again underestimated the earnings potential -- S&P 500 firms have crushed estimates by at least 10% for six quarters in a row. One case for the upside: At $51.29 a share, the estimated income represents a 5% decline from the previous three months. That’s at odds with an economy that’s projected to expand 6% this quarter.</p><p>“I don’t think the time to be bearish is now at all. The question for those who have already de-risked -- and many have -- is, when do you get back in?” Jay Pelosky, founder and president of TPW Investment Management, said in an interview with Alix Steel on Bloomberg TV. “Q4 earnings are going to be awesome. I don’t think you can wait until early January. That, in hindsight, would be a mistake.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bull Market Keeps Running Thanks to Growing Profit Forecasts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bull Market Keeps Running Thanks to Growing Profit Forecasts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 11:34 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-28/big-s-p-500-bull-case-lives-on-in-unwavering-profit-forecasts><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wondering how U.S. stocks can keep going up in the face of a newly hawkish Federal Reserve and a fast-spreading omicron variant? The answer once again is uncanny resilience in the key measure of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-28/big-s-p-500-bull-case-lives-on-in-unwavering-profit-forecasts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-28/big-s-p-500-bull-case-lives-on-in-unwavering-profit-forecasts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100360696","content_text":"Wondering how U.S. stocks can keep going up in the face of a newly hawkish Federal Reserve and a fast-spreading omicron variant? The answer once again is uncanny resilience in the key measure of American corporate health.As scary as all the headlines have been, they have yet to enact any appreciable harm on forecasts for S&P 500 earnings. Rather than fall, as case counts climb and the global recovery comes under increasingly worrisome threats, estimated 2022 income for firms in the index actually climbed about $1 to $220.40 a share in the last month.It’s possible that analysts have just been slow cutting numbers as the post-pandemic rally approaches its third year. Certainly, some money managers have raised cash holdings and cut equity exposure in anticipation of a worsening economy.But bulls are acting as though stable profit estimates are believable and unlikely to change. In a year rife with antagonists, from waves of coronavirus outbreaks to supply chain bottlenecks, it’s record earnings per share that kept the bull case intact.“Healthy economic and EPS growth acts as a foundation under a market which is driven by chronic fears,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, who expects 2022 profits to come in at $240 a share. “You can be worried about Covid, inflation, the Fed, China, Robinhood, SPACs, valuations, etc. But every quarter, EPS keep coming in better than expected, forcing the consensus to upgrade forecasts. And this brings ‘dip buyers’ whenever we have any meaningful pullback.”Investor nerves were tested in December when Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced plans to end the central bank’s asset-buying program earlier and signaled rate hikes for 2022 to fight inflation. Prospects for higher rates and slower growth sparked a quick exodus from risky assets. Technology firms that are unprofitable bore the brunt of selling. So did shares of newly public companies, many of which have yet to make money.But the S&P 500, tracking large and established firms, has stood relatively firm, hovering within 4% of its all-time high thanks to strength on the bottom line. While the index’s 27% rally struck many as hard to explain, the pace of its appreciation has roughly matched the increase in the estimated earnings this year. In other words, the share gains have been driven by improving fundamentals.Even inflation -- public enemy No. 1 in the fixed income market -- has mostly been a tail wind for large-cap companies. Thanks to the ability to pass on higher costs to end users,profit margin, a measure of how much a business can keep its revenue as income, has widened to a record and according to analysts is expected to expand in the following two years.While not every company is able to defend its profitability amid mounting pricing pressures, those that can are winning. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of stocks with stable high margins has outperformed that with less pricing power by 7 percentage points this quarter, the most since the pandemic trough in March 2020.“What we really want to find are companies with pricing power,” said Giorgio Caputo, senior portfolio manager at J O Hambro Capital Management. “In an inflationary environment, that’s the gift that keeps on giving because companies can pass along their pricing on the way up, and don’t necessarily need to get it back on the way down.”Now as the year draws to a close, “play defensive” has replaced “fear of missing out” as the market’s mantra. In Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey, global money managers this month boosted their cash holdings to the highest level since May 2020 while trimming their stock exposure to a 13-month low.Yet amid a cacophony of macroeconomic stressors, the robust earnings picture is pretty much intact. For the fourth-quarter earnings season that’s about to start in coming weeks, S&P 500 companies are expected to report a 19% jump in profits, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.If the recent history is any guide, analysts may have again underestimated the earnings potential -- S&P 500 firms have crushed estimates by at least 10% for six quarters in a row. One case for the upside: At $51.29 a share, the estimated income represents a 5% decline from the previous three months. That’s at odds with an economy that’s projected to expand 6% this quarter.“I don’t think the time to be bearish is now at all. The question for those who have already de-risked -- and many have -- is, when do you get back in?” Jay Pelosky, founder and president of TPW Investment Management, said in an interview with Alix Steel on Bloomberg TV. “Q4 earnings are going to be awesome. I don’t think you can wait until early January. That, in hindsight, would be a mistake.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692973818"}
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