JonLucky
2021-12-30
It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end.
Tesla Price Paradox
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":692313110,"tweetId":"692313110","gmtCreate":1640846090463,"gmtModify":1640846091493,"author":{"id":3573703375513385,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorId":3573703375513385,"authorIdStr":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":105,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end. </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end. </p></body></html>","text":"It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692313110","repostId":1193773446,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193773446","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640841615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193773446?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 13:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Price Paradox","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193773446","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryOver the past two years, Tesla's share price has risen by more than a thousand percent. And p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Over the past two years, Tesla's share price has risen by more than a thousand percent. And paradoxically, this fact itself increased the company's intrinsic value.</li><li>Being overvalued is normal for Tesla. This is a premium for the uncertainty of the upper upside potential.</li><li>Tesla's success fits well with Jung's theory of archetypes. Perhaps this factor is the most important.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d40a1fccabaea0b6b0df9ece4b3e47\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Win McNamee/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>As Intro</b></p><p>All the paradox of the current Tesla (TSLA) market price can be easily reflected using two charts. Here's the first one:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f250dee66f6a8d50dea58c088fc67c9\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: wolfstreet.com</span></p><p>And here is the second one:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470fcabd23d49e8f483369acc9de0d6a\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: wolfstreet.com</span></p><p>Looking at these two graphs suggests two alternative hypotheses. (1) Everyone <i>does not notice the obvious</i> and Tesla is a bubble. (2) Or<i>there is something not obvious</i> that explains the fundamental rationality of the company's current price...</p><p>My article is an attempt to delve into the second hypothesis.</p><p><b>Price Affects Value</b></p><p>It is common among investors and analysts to distinguish between price and value of a company. In this case, the price is the result of the balance of supply and demand in the market. And the value is a kind of function that depends on the potential to generate free cash flow and risks. It is also assumed that price tends to be in equilibrium with value.</p><p>I agree with this point of view, but it is still a very simplified model.<i>The fact is that in reality the price directly affects the value and vice versa.</i></p><p>The high share price is an opportunity for the company to raise additional capital through the issue of additional shares. This leads to faster growth of the company and less risk of bankruptcy. The latter directly positively affects the value. By the way, Tesla is actively using this opportunity:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9001d5050834ac58f621acafd44da9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p>In addition, Tesla actively uses such a tool for motivating employees as share-based compensation. There is also an obvious causal relationship here. The higher the share price, the better the financial condition of such employees. This means greater loyalty to the company and, as a result, better operational results.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f6fad0cf9533ee6815b35e0080648e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><i>Over the past two years, Tesla's share price has risen by more than a thousand percent. And paradoxically, this fact itself increased the company's intrinsic value.</i></p><p><b>Life Cycle</b></p><p><i>The main thing that sets Tesla apart from other automakers is the stage in its life cycle.</i>And this is a critical moment, because before you perform a fundamental analysis of a company, probably you should first determine at what stage of its life cycle this company is. Otherwise, you run the risk of using inappropriate assessment tools and getting false results.</p><p>There are various attempts to define the main phases of a company’s life cycle and here is my favorite one:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c16fc26a5dbf1986bb64aeb03f849cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source:aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com</span></p><p>In principle, everything can be simplified by highlighting four key stages:</p><ol><li><i>Start-up</i>‒ revolutionary idea and team.</li><li><i>Youth</i>‒ revenues are increasing, almost no profit.</li><li><i>Maturity</i>‒ the evolution of the product, revenue growth slows down, stable profit, debts are accumulating.</li><li><p><i>Old age</i>‒ a decline in revenue and profit growth rates, dividend payout and buyback.</p></li></ol><p>Now, looking at the dynamics of Tesla's profit and revenue, there is practically no doubt that the company is at an early stage of its development:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4e416def88421d985b94eca522b4dd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p>At the same time, almost all large, global automakers have already entered a phase that no longer presupposes such growth rates of operating indicators:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d7c32a32164f1e940c7866751f5cdc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p>And this is very important, because at this stage, Tesla's overall growth potential is very difficult to predict. Look at the wide range between optimistic and pessimistic forecasts for the company's future revenue:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f59191273909b94580746fa43d049ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</span></p><p>I mean that we actually see only a small fragment of the life of the company, and at this stage it is difficult to say what will happen next. This problem can be visualized as follows:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2739394b4c0f0ad455247849cf79d7ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author</span></p><p>In turn, this means that Tesla cannot be fairly evaluated by the market.<i>The most normal state for such a company is overvalued (when the price exceeds the rational fundamental value).</i>We can say that this is a premium for the uncertainty of the upper growth potential.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd592ab32da455f07172c6a50cfe5add\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author</span></p><p>Two months ago, IpresentedTesla's DCF model. That model showed that the current fundamental value of the company's stock is about $1,000. In my opinion, the model remains relevant.<i>And the fact that the actual price of the company is above this level should not surprise anyone.</i></p><p><b>The right business at the right time</b></p><p>I increasingly notice that the deeper I try to penetrate into the cause-and-effect part of some phenomenon, I inevitably come to psychology.</p><p>Have you ever wondered why some stories or films are successful and some are not? There is an opinion based on Jung's theory of archetypes that we are closer to those stories in which it is easy to understand which hero is positive and which is negative. Here is alinkto a video in which psychology professor Jordan Peterson analyzes The Lion King cartoon. This is an exciting analysis...</p><p>Now, if you look at Tesla and other automakers in such a context, then Tesla is clearly a positive hero.</p><p>Tesla'smissionis “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy”. This should have a positive effect on the environment and human health. Everyone understands this and everyone is happy about it. Do not laugh, but if you draw parallels with the mentioned cartoon, then Tesla is Simba (son of Mufasa). Because Tesla represents a new era.</p><p>Who are the other major automakers? For them, Tesla is a threat. They would be insanely happy about Tesla's bankruptcy, because their business is built on non-environmentally friendly technology. Tesla now forces these companies to embark on a painful and dangerous transformation process. They represent Scar (Mufasa's younger brother).</p><p>Now you understand?<i>People empathize with Tesla. They want Tesla to win, just like they want Simba to defeat Scar.</i></p><p><i>Do not underestimate what I have written in this block. Because here we are talking about deep processes in our consciousness that determine our behavior. And this is much more important than financial models or multiples...</i></p><p><b>Bottom Line</b></p><p>It seems to me that in the matter of the fundamental assessment of Tesla, everything is much more complicated and deeper than a simple statement that the company is significantly overvalued. In any case, I believe that the growth potential of the company's capitalization is hardly exhausted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d824e086010d445464f66c70500b2327\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Price Paradox</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Price Paradox\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 13:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477153-tesla-tsla-stock-price-paradox><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOver the past two years, Tesla's share price has risen by more than a thousand percent. And paradoxically, this fact itself increased the company's intrinsic value.Being overvalued is normal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477153-tesla-tsla-stock-price-paradox\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477153-tesla-tsla-stock-price-paradox","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1193773446","content_text":"SummaryOver the past two years, Tesla's share price has risen by more than a thousand percent. And paradoxically, this fact itself increased the company's intrinsic value.Being overvalued is normal for Tesla. This is a premium for the uncertainty of the upper upside potential.Tesla's success fits well with Jung's theory of archetypes. Perhaps this factor is the most important.Win McNamee/Getty Images NewsAs IntroAll the paradox of the current Tesla (TSLA) market price can be easily reflected using two charts. Here's the first one:Source: wolfstreet.comAnd here is the second one:Source: wolfstreet.comLooking at these two graphs suggests two alternative hypotheses. (1) Everyone does not notice the obvious and Tesla is a bubble. (2) Orthere is something not obvious that explains the fundamental rationality of the company's current price...My article is an attempt to delve into the second hypothesis.Price Affects ValueIt is common among investors and analysts to distinguish between price and value of a company. In this case, the price is the result of the balance of supply and demand in the market. And the value is a kind of function that depends on the potential to generate free cash flow and risks. It is also assumed that price tends to be in equilibrium with value.I agree with this point of view, but it is still a very simplified model.The fact is that in reality the price directly affects the value and vice versa.The high share price is an opportunity for the company to raise additional capital through the issue of additional shares. This leads to faster growth of the company and less risk of bankruptcy. The latter directly positively affects the value. By the way, Tesla is actively using this opportunity:Data byYChartsIn addition, Tesla actively uses such a tool for motivating employees as share-based compensation. There is also an obvious causal relationship here. The higher the share price, the better the financial condition of such employees. This means greater loyalty to the company and, as a result, better operational results.Over the past two years, Tesla's share price has risen by more than a thousand percent. And paradoxically, this fact itself increased the company's intrinsic value.Life CycleThe main thing that sets Tesla apart from other automakers is the stage in its life cycle.And this is a critical moment, because before you perform a fundamental analysis of a company, probably you should first determine at what stage of its life cycle this company is. Otherwise, you run the risk of using inappropriate assessment tools and getting false results.There are various attempts to define the main phases of a company’s life cycle and here is my favorite one:Source:aswathdamodaran.blogspot.comIn principle, everything can be simplified by highlighting four key stages:Start-up‒ revolutionary idea and team.Youth‒ revenues are increasing, almost no profit.Maturity‒ the evolution of the product, revenue growth slows down, stable profit, debts are accumulating.Old age‒ a decline in revenue and profit growth rates, dividend payout and buyback.Now, looking at the dynamics of Tesla's profit and revenue, there is practically no doubt that the company is at an early stage of its development:Data byYChartsAt the same time, almost all large, global automakers have already entered a phase that no longer presupposes such growth rates of operating indicators:Data byYChartsAnd this is very important, because at this stage, Tesla's overall growth potential is very difficult to predict. Look at the wide range between optimistic and pessimistic forecasts for the company's future revenue:Source: Seeking Alpha ProI mean that we actually see only a small fragment of the life of the company, and at this stage it is difficult to say what will happen next. This problem can be visualized as follows:Source: AuthorIn turn, this means that Tesla cannot be fairly evaluated by the market.The most normal state for such a company is overvalued (when the price exceeds the rational fundamental value).We can say that this is a premium for the uncertainty of the upper growth potential.Source: AuthorTwo months ago, IpresentedTesla's DCF model. That model showed that the current fundamental value of the company's stock is about $1,000. In my opinion, the model remains relevant.And the fact that the actual price of the company is above this level should not surprise anyone.The right business at the right timeI increasingly notice that the deeper I try to penetrate into the cause-and-effect part of some phenomenon, I inevitably come to psychology.Have you ever wondered why some stories or films are successful and some are not? There is an opinion based on Jung's theory of archetypes that we are closer to those stories in which it is easy to understand which hero is positive and which is negative. Here is alinkto a video in which psychology professor Jordan Peterson analyzes The Lion King cartoon. This is an exciting analysis...Now, if you look at Tesla and other automakers in such a context, then Tesla is clearly a positive hero.Tesla'smissionis “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy”. This should have a positive effect on the environment and human health. Everyone understands this and everyone is happy about it. Do not laugh, but if you draw parallels with the mentioned cartoon, then Tesla is Simba (son of Mufasa). Because Tesla represents a new era.Who are the other major automakers? For them, Tesla is a threat. They would be insanely happy about Tesla's bankruptcy, because their business is built on non-environmentally friendly technology. Tesla now forces these companies to embark on a painful and dangerous transformation process. They represent Scar (Mufasa's younger brother).Now you understand?People empathize with Tesla. They want Tesla to win, just like they want Simba to defeat Scar.Do not underestimate what I have written in this block. Because here we are talking about deep processes in our consciousness that determine our behavior. And this is much more important than financial models or multiples...Bottom LineIt seems to me that in the matter of the fundamental assessment of Tesla, everything is much more complicated and deeper than a simple statement that the company is significantly overvalued. In any case, I believe that the growth potential of the company's capitalization is hardly exhausted.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":43,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692313110"}
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