WEE Yang
2021-12-23
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BlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":691763549,"tweetId":"691763549","gmtCreate":1640245677091,"gmtModify":1640246796536,"author":{"id":4091346870243490,"idStr":"4091346870243490","authorId":4091346870243490,"authorIdStr":"4091346870243490","name":"WEE Yang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7593895910520fae73b5db4fd955877c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691763549","repostId":1175449013,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175449013","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640245426,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175449013?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 15:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175449013","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.\nPatent deal still has not been finalized.\nBalance","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Fiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.</li>\n <li>Patent deal still has not been finalized.</li>\n <li>Balance sheet only getting worse.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d951cf9a7ed0eeec78dd7079ac3a473\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MF3d/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After the bell on Tuesday, we received fiscal third quarter results from BlackBerry (BB). Investors have been waiting years for the company's turnaround to really materialize, and the stock has greatly underperformed the market under the leadership of CEO John Chen. Tuesday's report again showed the usual headline beats, but the current quarter forecast and somewhat weak business internals left investors scratching their heads.</p>\n<p>For Q3, revenues came in at $184 million, exactly what I was looking for. This did beat street estimates by about $7.5 million, but only because the average estimate had come down by more than $26 million since the company's previous report. Overall, this was a $34 million revenue drop as compared to the prior year period, with revenue segment results seen in the graphic below. Dollar values are in millions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c2ab7a8d0b01277a54c9f66e340262\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Financial supplement document on IR page</span></p>\n<p>The IoT segment saw nice growth as expected, with a good chunk of the pandemic behind us and auto sales starting to improve. However, Cyber Security still isn't showing year over year growth just yet, despite the sequential improvement. Licensing revenues continue to struggle as management still hasn't been able to finalize a patent monetization deal. Hopefully, there will be a major update on this in January as management said on the conference call, but this is something that investors were hoping would be done at least 3-6 months ago.</p>\n<p>As the company usually does, the adjusted earnings per share figure beat estimates. BlackBerry essentially broke even on a non-GAAP basis, while the street was looking for either a 6 or 7 cent loss depending on what estimate site you use. A good portion of the beat was driven by a $25 million one-time gain in some investment funds the company was holding, while operating expenses were also down a bit on a sequential basis. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a large profit, but this was only due to the fall in BlackBerry shares resulting in the company's convertible bonds being re-valued lower by $110 million. Normalized operating losses came in at $59 million, which was an improvement of $15 million sequentially, but that's still a loss of more than 32 cents for every dollar of revenue generated.</p>\n<p>A few internal items also showed a little weakness. Total annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") dipped by $4 million sequentially, as Cyber Security ARR was down $6 million but IoT ARR was up $2 million. This metric continues to be quite weak, while a competitor like CrowdStrike (CRWD) just added $170 million in new ARR in its latest quarter. BlackBerry's deferred revenue balance also declined by $9 million sequentially to $235 million, and is down by $81 million in just the past five quarters.</p>\n<p>These weaker internals may not be surprising to those like me who have followed the company, but it did result in much weaker than expected guidance. Management is calling for fiscal Q4 revenues in a range of $175 million to $200 million, but the street was looking for nearly $207 million. This will probably lead to even more future estimate cuts for the fiscal 2023 year that starts in a couple of months. Since the beginning of this calendar year, the average revenue forecast for the company's next fiscal year has gone from a little over $1.05 billion to less than $882 million. Company supporters have been hoping for a better future revenue growth trajectory, but it's taking much longer than expected to happen.</p>\n<p>Investors are hoping a patent deal can be completed to bring in some much needed capital. BlackBerry has a somewhat inflexible balance sheet, with nearly 58% of its asset base tied up in either goodwill or intangible assets. The company finished its latest quarter with $772 million in cash against $365 million in debt, although at the current stock price those notes would be converted into shares at $6 per. Given how this year's performance has been rather weak, I'll be curious to see if there are any major goodwill or intangible write-downs at the end of year Q4 report.</p>\n<p>Even before the weak guidance, analysts have not had a very positive rating on the stock recently. Of the 10 street ratings posted in the last 90 days, 8 are either bearish or very bearish, with just 2 being neutral. The average street price target going into the Q3 report was $8.13 as compared to Tuesday's close of $9.25. Despite a few pops here and there, including the retail trading / meme stock rally earlier this year, BlackBerry shares have been a tremendous laggard. As the chart below shows, they are up just 46% since John Chen was named interim CEO, compared to a nearly 417% gain for the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6dc07cfac1fb43f4fbf77df45ed5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p>In the end, the same old story just continues for BlackBerry. The headline numbers showed beats after dramatically reduced estimates, but the internal figures didn't show too much improvement. Management still has not been able to seal a patent deal, and Q4 revenue guidance was much weaker than the street was hoping for. While we should see the top line grow a bit next year, not enough progress is being made yet. Perhaps the stock can rally next month if a patent deal is finally announced, but until then, there isn't a major positive catalyst that investors can cling to.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-23 15:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476516-blackberry-not-enough-progress-yet><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.\nPatent deal still has not been finalized.\nBalance sheet only getting worse.\n\nMF3d/E+ via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we received fiscal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476516-blackberry-not-enough-progress-yet\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476516-blackberry-not-enough-progress-yet","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175449013","content_text":"Summary\n\nFiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.\nPatent deal still has not been finalized.\nBalance sheet only getting worse.\n\nMF3d/E+ via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we received fiscal third quarter results from BlackBerry (BB). Investors have been waiting years for the company's turnaround to really materialize, and the stock has greatly underperformed the market under the leadership of CEO John Chen. Tuesday's report again showed the usual headline beats, but the current quarter forecast and somewhat weak business internals left investors scratching their heads.\nFor Q3, revenues came in at $184 million, exactly what I was looking for. This did beat street estimates by about $7.5 million, but only because the average estimate had come down by more than $26 million since the company's previous report. Overall, this was a $34 million revenue drop as compared to the prior year period, with revenue segment results seen in the graphic below. Dollar values are in millions.\nSource: Financial supplement document on IR page\nThe IoT segment saw nice growth as expected, with a good chunk of the pandemic behind us and auto sales starting to improve. However, Cyber Security still isn't showing year over year growth just yet, despite the sequential improvement. Licensing revenues continue to struggle as management still hasn't been able to finalize a patent monetization deal. Hopefully, there will be a major update on this in January as management said on the conference call, but this is something that investors were hoping would be done at least 3-6 months ago.\nAs the company usually does, the adjusted earnings per share figure beat estimates. BlackBerry essentially broke even on a non-GAAP basis, while the street was looking for either a 6 or 7 cent loss depending on what estimate site you use. A good portion of the beat was driven by a $25 million one-time gain in some investment funds the company was holding, while operating expenses were also down a bit on a sequential basis. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a large profit, but this was only due to the fall in BlackBerry shares resulting in the company's convertible bonds being re-valued lower by $110 million. Normalized operating losses came in at $59 million, which was an improvement of $15 million sequentially, but that's still a loss of more than 32 cents for every dollar of revenue generated.\nA few internal items also showed a little weakness. Total annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") dipped by $4 million sequentially, as Cyber Security ARR was down $6 million but IoT ARR was up $2 million. This metric continues to be quite weak, while a competitor like CrowdStrike (CRWD) just added $170 million in new ARR in its latest quarter. BlackBerry's deferred revenue balance also declined by $9 million sequentially to $235 million, and is down by $81 million in just the past five quarters.\nThese weaker internals may not be surprising to those like me who have followed the company, but it did result in much weaker than expected guidance. Management is calling for fiscal Q4 revenues in a range of $175 million to $200 million, but the street was looking for nearly $207 million. This will probably lead to even more future estimate cuts for the fiscal 2023 year that starts in a couple of months. Since the beginning of this calendar year, the average revenue forecast for the company's next fiscal year has gone from a little over $1.05 billion to less than $882 million. Company supporters have been hoping for a better future revenue growth trajectory, but it's taking much longer than expected to happen.\nInvestors are hoping a patent deal can be completed to bring in some much needed capital. BlackBerry has a somewhat inflexible balance sheet, with nearly 58% of its asset base tied up in either goodwill or intangible assets. The company finished its latest quarter with $772 million in cash against $365 million in debt, although at the current stock price those notes would be converted into shares at $6 per. Given how this year's performance has been rather weak, I'll be curious to see if there are any major goodwill or intangible write-downs at the end of year Q4 report.\nEven before the weak guidance, analysts have not had a very positive rating on the stock recently. Of the 10 street ratings posted in the last 90 days, 8 are either bearish or very bearish, with just 2 being neutral. The average street price target going into the Q3 report was $8.13 as compared to Tuesday's close of $9.25. Despite a few pops here and there, including the retail trading / meme stock rally earlier this year, BlackBerry shares have been a tremendous laggard. As the chart below shows, they are up just 46% since John Chen was named interim CEO, compared to a nearly 417% gain for the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW).\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nIn the end, the same old story just continues for BlackBerry. The headline numbers showed beats after dramatically reduced estimates, but the internal figures didn't show too much improvement. Management still has not been able to seal a patent deal, and Q4 revenue guidance was much weaker than the street was hoping for. While we should see the top line grow a bit next year, not enough progress is being made yet. Perhaps the stock can rally next month if a patent deal is finally announced, but until then, there isn't a major positive catalyst that investors can cling to.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691763549"}
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