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2021-12-23

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After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'

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Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;everything... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.\nBut too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...\nStimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.\nIt used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.\nLike other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;until it stops working.\nStill, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.\nIt's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.\nThe Most Powerful Force in the World\nInflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;a force that will not be denied...\nBut for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;mean reversion. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.\nWhen applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.\nWe can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.\nMeanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.\nAnd since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.\nHere Comes the Bullwhip\nYou know what comes next.\nRetailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.\nShortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"\nThe \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.\nSo if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.\nThe Ultimate Contrarian Indicator\nAnd there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;lower inflation.\nIt's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.\nNew York Timesbestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)\nWhat's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.\n\"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.\nAnd ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;it's finally going to go away.\nThe Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-23 15:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip>zerohedge</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"\nAll that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166370237","content_text":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"\nAll that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.\nInvestors should expect two things in the next few months...\n\nPost-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.\nAll the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.\n\nHow We Got Here\nMillions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically everything... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.\nBut too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...\nStimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.\nIt used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.\nLike other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted... until it stops working.\nStill, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.\nIt's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.\nThe Most Powerful Force in the World\nInflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as a force that will not be denied...\nBut for my money, what's more powerful than that force is mean reversion. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.\nWhen applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.\nWe can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.\nMeanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.\nAnd since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.\nHere Comes the Bullwhip\nYou know what comes next.\nRetailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.\nShortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"\nThe \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.\nSo if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.\nThe Ultimate Contrarian Indicator\nAnd there's another positive side effect... lower inflation.\nIt's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.\nNew York Timesbestselling author Jim Rickards recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)\nWhat's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.\n\"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.\nAnd ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months – it's finally going to go away.\nThe Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691720328"}