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@吴家琦：The Energy crunch in Europe 1) Energy induced Recession = lower EUR 2) Recession Risk = higher credit spreads and peripheral spreads = lower portfolio inflows 3) Higher cost of manufacturing, shortage of key supply chain materials increase inflation pressure and growth pressure 4) Factory shutdowns = potential higher unemployment Essentially the Euro area's cost of energy is 3-4 times higher than that of the US and this key disadvantage for Euro manufacturing requires a weaker currency ECB can make all the noise they want on FX but with 214bps priced over 2yrs already - not really much they can speak up. Is USD parity Around the corner?

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