上方山车神
2022-07-21
先转着……
The Big Tech Apples May Have Further to Fall?
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Apple I","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Apple of the Market’s Eye</b></p><p>There’s no doubt what Monday’s biggest market news was in New York. Apple Inc. stock fell more than 2% in its worst session in almost three weeks after Bloomberg revealed the company’s plans to slow hiring and spending to cope with a potential economic downturn. The news, shortly after midday, sparked an immediate tumble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e8cba754cf5ef5d07c43411b24f33f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Until now, shares of the iPhone-maker had fallen roughly 17% for the year, in step with the broader market rout. The announcement undercut the market, with other big “FANG” internet platforms such as Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. also falling. The tech stalwart had been among the companies that beat Wall Street expectations throughout the pandemic, and had come to be seen as a defensive stock, so any negative news was bound to hurt sentiment across the market.</p><p>The development was particularly unwelcome as it came just as the tech sector appeared ready to rally. The Nasdaq 100, down 27% for the year so far, had briefly managed to get above its 50-day moving average on Monday, suggesting that the relentless downward trend was over — but the index failed to stay there, thanks in large part to Apple.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8865f39c565e2fe056f4ea9e05bc0eb\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There have been hopes that valuation is at last looking favorable for the tech sector once more — although this gets a little harder to sustain on closer examination. The spread between the prospective earnings multiples of the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector and the benchmark S&P 500 started this year at the highest it had been since 2004. A “healthy correction” was in order, and what looks like some seriously unhealthy speculative excess has now been wrung out of the market. However, it’s worth noting that from the Great Financial Crisis through to about 2018, tech basically traded at the same multiple as the rest of the market. Tech’s premium could easily fall further from here:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4127afed9347713bf291fc04a27c4584\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is a similar message from the tech index’s P/E ratio judged in its own right. It has slipped to 20.6 on Monday, having peaked above 30 in the first year of the pandemic. But 20 appears to be the level at which it hit a plateau in 2017 and 2018 — again while it looks like the excess has been blown off thetop, there’s no particular reason to think that the multiple can rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c45ff60e2c3fba21870e2132590fb0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors will get more clarity this week when more tech heavyweights report earnings following mixed results from major banks. Netflix Inc., savagely punished for disappointing results so far this year, will kick off the FANG stocks Tuesday evening. This is the season for all companies to get bad news off their chests, so the chances of a durable rebound should be much stronger once investors believe they know the worst.</p><p>Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, would “prefer to get bullish” on US large-cap tech once he sees second-quarter earnings season, which will include third-quarter guidance. This, even as Wall Street’s forecast still remains relatively optimistic. “Even still, the return math says the Nasdaq is pretty washed out here on a relative basis,” he said.</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>While the surge in US tech stocks just after the March 2020 stock market lows was statistically remarkable, it was nothing like the dot com bubble. The peak in post-Pandemic Crisis NASDAQ outperformance was 21 points in August 2020. That is just over two standard deviations (18.4 points, as calculated above). By contrast, the 2000 dot com bubble saw the NASDAQ outperform the S&P 500 by 77 points, which is nine standard deviations.</i></li></ul><ul><li><i>The NASDAQ rarely underperforms the S&P 500 by much more than 6.8 points over 100 days, which is one standard deviation from the relative return mean... It exceeded those levels in late May 2022, at 11 points of relative underperformance.</i></li></ul><ul><li><i>The NASDAQ has underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.3 points over the last 100 days, well within one standard deviation.</i></li></ul></blockquote><p>All of this suggests that the sector could have further to fall if the news is bad. Still, if earnings of tech companies prove profitable, or traders can be convinced that the worst news is known, it may solidify its status as the new defensive play, at least for now.</p><p>Colas is not alone in suggesting that the conditions for a bottom are not in place, despite the recent signs of life in the tech sector. Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report, continues to suggest that some broader macro landmarks need to be passed before the market can make a durable bottom. His list is as follows:</p><blockquote><i>1. Chinese Lockdowns Ease and Growth Recovers — The Chinese economy has largely reopened, but this week’s shutdown in Macau and mass testing in Shanghai and other regions show that “Zero COVID” remains partially in effect and as a result, the threat of lockdowns will continue to weigh on Chinese stocks and the outlook for the global economy.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>2. Inflation Peaks and Declines and the Fed Eases Off the Hawkish Rhetoric — Obviously we’re not close on this yet. The June CPI printed above 9% and it’s essentially a “toss up” as to whether we get a 75bps hike or a 100bps hike.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>3. Geopolitical Tensions Decline — Certain commodities like wheat and corn have declined to pre-collision levels, as markets are hopeful that grain shipments from Ukraine will start again soon. But energy commodities, despite large drops, remain above pre-invasion levels (oil and natural gas). Additionally, the drops have been driven by fears of a global recession crimping demand and lack of export capacity in the US (for natural gas), not on some geopolitical improvement.</i></blockquote><p>Until these macroeconomic factors are resolved, and it could take a while, Essaye does not think the June low in equities is the bottom, while the market remains vulnerable to any disappointments. Apple delivered just such a disappointment on Monday; now the question is whether further ones lie ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Big Tech Apples May Have Further to Fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Big Tech Apples May Have Further to Fall?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-19 17:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-19/apple-s-thud-suggests-big-tech-s-pandemic-era-premiums-could-fall-further?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple of the Market’s EyeThere’s no doubt what Monday’s biggest market news was in New York. Apple Inc. stock fell more than 2% in its worst session in almost three weeks after Bloomberg revealed the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-19/apple-s-thud-suggests-big-tech-s-pandemic-era-premiums-could-fall-further?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-19/apple-s-thud-suggests-big-tech-s-pandemic-era-premiums-could-fall-further?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130997965","content_text":"Apple of the Market’s EyeThere’s no doubt what Monday’s biggest market news was in New York. Apple Inc. stock fell more than 2% in its worst session in almost three weeks after Bloomberg revealed the company’s plans to slow hiring and spending to cope with a potential economic downturn. The news, shortly after midday, sparked an immediate tumble.Until now, shares of the iPhone-maker had fallen roughly 17% for the year, in step with the broader market rout. The announcement undercut the market, with other big “FANG” internet platforms such as Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. also falling. The tech stalwart had been among the companies that beat Wall Street expectations throughout the pandemic, and had come to be seen as a defensive stock, so any negative news was bound to hurt sentiment across the market.The development was particularly unwelcome as it came just as the tech sector appeared ready to rally. The Nasdaq 100, down 27% for the year so far, had briefly managed to get above its 50-day moving average on Monday, suggesting that the relentless downward trend was over — but the index failed to stay there, thanks in large part to Apple.There have been hopes that valuation is at last looking favorable for the tech sector once more — although this gets a little harder to sustain on closer examination. The spread between the prospective earnings multiples of the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector and the benchmark S&P 500 started this year at the highest it had been since 2004. A “healthy correction” was in order, and what looks like some seriously unhealthy speculative excess has now been wrung out of the market. However, it’s worth noting that from the Great Financial Crisis through to about 2018, tech basically traded at the same multiple as the rest of the market. Tech’s premium could easily fall further from here:There is a similar message from the tech index’s P/E ratio judged in its own right. It has slipped to 20.6 on Monday, having peaked above 30 in the first year of the pandemic. But 20 appears to be the level at which it hit a plateau in 2017 and 2018 — again while it looks like the excess has been blown off thetop, there’s no particular reason to think that the multiple can rebound.Investors will get more clarity this week when more tech heavyweights report earnings following mixed results from major banks. Netflix Inc., savagely punished for disappointing results so far this year, will kick off the FANG stocks Tuesday evening. This is the season for all companies to get bad news off their chests, so the chances of a durable rebound should be much stronger once investors believe they know the worst.Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, would “prefer to get bullish” on US large-cap tech once he sees second-quarter earnings season, which will include third-quarter guidance. This, even as Wall Street’s forecast still remains relatively optimistic. “Even still, the return math says the Nasdaq is pretty washed out here on a relative basis,” he said.While the surge in US tech stocks just after the March 2020 stock market lows was statistically remarkable, it was nothing like the dot com bubble. The peak in post-Pandemic Crisis NASDAQ outperformance was 21 points in August 2020. That is just over two standard deviations (18.4 points, as calculated above). By contrast, the 2000 dot com bubble saw the NASDAQ outperform the S&P 500 by 77 points, which is nine standard deviations.The NASDAQ rarely underperforms the S&P 500 by much more than 6.8 points over 100 days, which is one standard deviation from the relative return mean... It exceeded those levels in late May 2022, at 11 points of relative underperformance.The NASDAQ has underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.3 points over the last 100 days, well within one standard deviation.All of this suggests that the sector could have further to fall if the news is bad. Still, if earnings of tech companies prove profitable, or traders can be convinced that the worst news is known, it may solidify its status as the new defensive play, at least for now.Colas is not alone in suggesting that the conditions for a bottom are not in place, despite the recent signs of life in the tech sector. Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report, continues to suggest that some broader macro landmarks need to be passed before the market can make a durable bottom. His list is as follows:1. Chinese Lockdowns Ease and Growth Recovers — The Chinese economy has largely reopened, but this week’s shutdown in Macau and mass testing in Shanghai and other regions show that “Zero COVID” remains partially in effect and as a result, the threat of lockdowns will continue to weigh on Chinese stocks and the outlook for the global economy.2. Inflation Peaks and Declines and the Fed Eases Off the Hawkish Rhetoric — Obviously we’re not close on this yet. The June CPI printed above 9% and it’s essentially a “toss up” as to whether we get a 75bps hike or a 100bps hike.3. Geopolitical Tensions Decline — Certain commodities like wheat and corn have declined to pre-collision levels, as markets are hopeful that grain shipments from Ukraine will start again soon. But energy commodities, despite large drops, remain above pre-invasion levels (oil and natural gas). Additionally, the drops have been driven by fears of a global recession crimping demand and lack of export capacity in the US (for natural gas), not on some geopolitical improvement.Until these macroeconomic factors are resolved, and it could take a while, Essaye does not think the June low in equities is the bottom, while the market remains vulnerable to any disappointments. Apple delivered just such a disappointment on Monday; now the question is whether further ones lie ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2553,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/686228648"}
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