JL1Apr
2022-09-07
Shouldn't all be underweight?
S&P 500 to Reach Bear Market Low in Fourth Quarter: Morgan Stanley
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It’s neutral on everything else. Sydney Morning Herald</p><p>“While acknowledging the poor performance in equities year-to-date, we do not think the bear market is over if our earnings forecasts are correct.</p><p>“More specifically, we think the lows for this bear market will likely arrive in the fourth quarter with 3400 the minimum downside and 3000 the low if a recession arrives (in line with our well established base and bear case tactical views, respectively).</p><p>“From there, we think prices will recover to our base (3900) or bear (3350) case June 2023 targets. In the very near term, if back end rates fall, stocks may hold up or even rally until later this month when QT potentially increases and earnings estimates are likely revised lower.”</p><p>The S&P 500 closed 0.4 per cent to 3908 in New York overnight.</p><p>In terms of recommendations, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> says investors should underweight discretionary and tech hardware, while overweight utilities, health care and real estate. It’s neutral on everything else.</p><p>As for Morgan’s earnings expectations, Wilson said the firm is downgrading them.</p><p>“Our leading models point to continued and increasingly significant [earnings per share] growth downside well into 2023. Specifically, we revise our 2022 base case EPS estimate to $US220 from $US225, our 2023 base case estimate to $US212 from $US236, and our 2024 base case estimate to $US226 from $US237.</p><p>“Our ’22/‘23/’24 base case estimates are now 3 per cent/13 per cent/14 per cent below consensus, respectively. In our base case, 2023 now marks a modest earnings contraction (-3 per cent year-over-year growth), though we do not embed an economic recession in this scenario.</p><p>“The logic here is that nominal top line growth slows, but remains positive (mid-single-digit territory), while margins contract materially (1-1.5 per cent margin compression) driven by sticky cost pressures, particularly on the labour side.”</p></body></html>","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 to Reach Bear Market Low in Fourth Quarter: Morgan Stanley</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 to Reach Bear Market Low in Fourth Quarter: Morgan Stanley\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-07 11:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/s-and-p-500-to-reach-bear-market-low-in-fourth-quarter-morgan-stanley-20220907-p5bfyt><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 is headed sharply lower as the year progresses, especially if the US economy enters a recession, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Mike Wilson.The dire outlook ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/s-and-p-500-to-reach-bear-market-low-in-fourth-quarter-morgan-stanley-20220907-p5bfyt\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/s-and-p-500-to-reach-bear-market-low-in-fourth-quarter-morgan-stanley-20220907-p5bfyt","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265019711","content_text":"The S&P 500 is headed sharply lower as the year progresses, especially if the US economy enters a recession, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Mike Wilson.The dire outlook reinforces Wilson’s year-long bearish outlook for US equities, and his expectation that slowing economic growth now will become a bigger concern for stocks than inflation or the Federal Reserve were in the first half of 2022.Morgan Stanley says investors should underweight discretionary and tech hardware, while overweight utilities, health care and real estate. It’s neutral on everything else. Sydney Morning Herald“While acknowledging the poor performance in equities year-to-date, we do not think the bear market is over if our earnings forecasts are correct.“More specifically, we think the lows for this bear market will likely arrive in the fourth quarter with 3400 the minimum downside and 3000 the low if a recession arrives (in line with our well established base and bear case tactical views, respectively).“From there, we think prices will recover to our base (3900) or bear (3350) case June 2023 targets. In the very near term, if back end rates fall, stocks may hold up or even rally until later this month when QT potentially increases and earnings estimates are likely revised lower.”The S&P 500 closed 0.4 per cent to 3908 in New York overnight.In terms of recommendations, Morgan Stanley says investors should underweight discretionary and tech hardware, while overweight utilities, health care and real estate. It’s neutral on everything else.As for Morgan’s earnings expectations, Wilson said the firm is downgrading them.“Our leading models point to continued and increasingly significant [earnings per share] growth downside well into 2023. Specifically, we revise our 2022 base case EPS estimate to $US220 from $US225, our 2023 base case estimate to $US212 from $US236, and our 2024 base case estimate to $US226 from $US237.“Our ’22/‘23/’24 base case estimates are now 3 per cent/13 per cent/14 per cent below consensus, respectively. In our base case, 2023 now marks a modest earnings contraction (-3 per cent year-over-year growth), though we do not embed an economic recession in this scenario.“The logic here is that nominal top line growth slows, but remains positive (mid-single-digit territory), while margins contract materially (1-1.5 per cent margin compression) driven by sticky cost pressures, particularly on the labour side.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/669587432"}
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