古楼
2022-09-03
何种才是预测准，08年金融危机那样做空的人才算，这个只会逼逼个大概，只要没人做，没有根据预测有盈利，那这个所谓的预测，就是瞎扯淡，光说不干，只会逼逼，别跟我说分析师就是这样，懂得都懂
华尔街最精准分析师：市场下一步怎么走？
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08:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街最精准分析师：市场下一步怎么走？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165690590","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Hartnett预测，标普500指数将下行至3600点附近。在明年一季度，亚洲将出现通货紧缩，欧洲滞胀，一旦美国从通胀转向衰退，全球股市的收益率将急剧下降。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>Hartnett预测，标普500指数将下行至3600点附近。在明年一季度，亚洲将出现通货紧缩，欧洲滞胀，一旦美国从通胀转向衰退，全球股市的收益率将急剧下降。</blockquote><p>在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，接下来，标普500指数还将下挫大约400点，至3600点附近，而全球市场可能将陷入衰退之中。</p><p>Hartnett被称为华尔街今年最准分析师，他曾精准地预测了美股上半年的大跌，也曾在一个月前预测到美股这波强劲的反弹。</p><p>两周前，Hartnett告诉投资者，在4328点做空标普500指数期货，果不其然，标普500指数在过去的半个月里回吐了不少反弹以来的涨幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50626d89b5a550309db584d61b0668f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美联储未来调整政策和通胀没什么关系？</b></p><p>在他发布的最新报告中，Hartnett称，美联储未来必须调整政策的原因和通胀可能没什么关系，而是和美元的供应相关——有些类似2020年3月发生“美元荒”时美联储调整政策。</p><p>当前，美元指数处于历史高位，并且几乎每天都还在上涨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77b14262a2c3c44de000bab267103430\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>全球或将迎来衰退</b></p><p>Hartnett称，随着美元飙升，亚洲货币现在处于和新冠疫情爆发以及2008年全球金融危机时类似的低点。如果油价持续下跌，则2023年的交易主题可能是做空美元但做多新兴市场，当然，这会在美国经济衰退开始后才发生。</p><p>然后，Hartnett指出，随着5年期英国金边债券收益率创下新高，英国已经成为下半年发达市场通胀依然维持高位的领先指标：英国的能源价格、减税、疫情救助等等措施，都在其他发达市场有类似的政策，而这些都是下半年英国收益率再次上升的另一个重要原因。</p><p><b>这些政策措施及其后果蔓延的广度和速度可能超越人们的认知。</b>在澳大利亚，相关的政策相对更少，但是当地最大的资产类别，即住房的价格在8月已经出现了30年来最快速的下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483f275cdcd35d63c1addfe432fb9c4e\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而接下来，在Hartnett看来，最好的做空标的将是加拿大和澳大利亚的银行。</p><p><b>关于上周的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，Hartnett说，这标志着今年夏季交易通胀达到触顶、债券收益率触顶以及预测美联储会在2023年开始降息的终结。根据他的预测，美国的通胀率到2024年都不太可能降至4%以下，因此十年期美债收益率和联邦基金利率到2024年都可能超过4%。</b></p><p>Hartnett称，当前我们处于一个矛盾的世界，既要应对“快速通胀的冲击”，又要面对“缓慢衰退冲击”：通胀和财政刺激继续推动名义增长；但经济一旦受到痛苦，就会立即引发公共部门的救助。</p><p>Hartnett认为，一旦“快速通胀冲击”消退，一切市场都会开始走下坡路，因为衰退即将到来。<b>展望未来，Hartnett预测，在明年一季度，亚洲将出现通货紧缩，欧洲滞胀，一旦美国从通胀转向衰退，全球股市的收益率将急剧下降。</b></p><p><b>未来市场怎么走？</b></p><p>Hartnett说，本世纪以来推动股市高市盈率的所有因素几乎都在逆转：量化宽松、财政扩张在逆转；贸易、人员、资本的自由流动在受限；地缘政治相对的和平态势也在逐渐消失……取而代之的是一个更高通胀的新常态，这意味着，现金、大宗商品、和做多波动性，都会优于债券和股票的表现。</p><p>具体到美股来说，Hartnett认为，标普500指数指数将下行至3600点至3700点的区间，这意味着和当前的水平相比，可能还有大约300多点的降幅，并将创下本轮熊市以来的新低。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最精准分析师：市场下一步怎么走？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-09-03 08:52 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hartnett预测，标普500指数将下行至3600点附近。在明年一季度，亚洲将出现通货紧缩，欧洲滞胀，一旦美国从通胀转向衰退，全球股市的收益率将急剧下降。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，接下来，标普500指数还将下挫大约400点，至3600点附近，而全球市场可能将陷入衰退之中。Hartnett被称为华尔街今年最准分析师，他曾精准地预测了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165690590","content_text":"Hartnett预测，标普500指数将下行至3600点附近。在明年一季度，亚洲将出现通货紧缩，欧洲滞胀，一旦美国从通胀转向衰退，全球股市的收益率将急剧下降。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，接下来，标普500指数还将下挫大约400点，至3600点附近，而全球市场可能将陷入衰退之中。Hartnett被称为华尔街今年最准分析师，他曾精准地预测了美股上半年的大跌，也曾在一个月前预测到美股这波强劲的反弹。两周前，Hartnett告诉投资者，在4328点做空标普500指数期货，果不其然，标普500指数在过去的半个月里回吐了不少反弹以来的涨幅。美联储未来调整政策和通胀没什么关系？在他发布的最新报告中，Hartnett称，美联储未来必须调整政策的原因和通胀可能没什么关系，而是和美元的供应相关——有些类似2020年3月发生“美元荒”时美联储调整政策。当前，美元指数处于历史高位，并且几乎每天都还在上涨。全球或将迎来衰退Hartnett称，随着美元飙升，亚洲货币现在处于和新冠疫情爆发以及2008年全球金融危机时类似的低点。如果油价持续下跌，则2023年的交易主题可能是做空美元但做多新兴市场，当然，这会在美国经济衰退开始后才发生。然后，Hartnett指出，随着5年期英国金边债券收益率创下新高，英国已经成为下半年发达市场通胀依然维持高位的领先指标：英国的能源价格、减税、疫情救助等等措施，都在其他发达市场有类似的政策，而这些都是下半年英国收益率再次上升的另一个重要原因。这些政策措施及其后果蔓延的广度和速度可能超越人们的认知。在澳大利亚，相关的政策相对更少，但是当地最大的资产类别，即住房的价格在8月已经出现了30年来最快速的下跌。而接下来，在Hartnett看来，最好的做空标的将是加拿大和澳大利亚的银行。关于上周的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，Hartnett说，这标志着今年夏季交易通胀达到触顶、债券收益率触顶以及预测美联储会在2023年开始降息的终结。根据他的预测，美国的通胀率到2024年都不太可能降至4%以下，因此十年期美债收益率和联邦基金利率到2024年都可能超过4%。Hartnett称，当前我们处于一个矛盾的世界，既要应对“快速通胀的冲击”，又要面对“缓慢衰退冲击”：通胀和财政刺激继续推动名义增长；但经济一旦受到痛苦，就会立即引发公共部门的救助。Hartnett认为，一旦“快速通胀冲击”消退，一切市场都会开始走下坡路，因为衰退即将到来。展望未来，Hartnett预测，在明年一季度，亚洲将出现通货紧缩，欧洲滞胀，一旦美国从通胀转向衰退，全球股市的收益率将急剧下降。未来市场怎么走？Hartnett说，本世纪以来推动股市高市盈率的所有因素几乎都在逆转：量化宽松、财政扩张在逆转；贸易、人员、资本的自由流动在受限；地缘政治相对的和平态势也在逐渐消失……取而代之的是一个更高通胀的新常态，这意味着，现金、大宗商品、和做多波动性，都会优于债券和股票的表现。具体到美股来说，Hartnett认为，标普500指数指数将下行至3600点至3700点的区间，这意味着和当前的水平相比，可能还有大约300多点的降幅，并将创下本轮熊市以来的新低。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":170,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7635779,"commentId":"7635779","gmtCreate":1662204795969,"gmtModify":1662204799861,"authorId":3555918052424842,"author":{"id":3555918052424842,"idStr":"3555918052424842","authorId":3555918052424842,"name":"追每个希望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4fe4736f2a9935bca8e6f8086a0bddd","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.20","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":669156054,"objectIdStr":"669156054","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<span 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