摩根大通，富国银行一_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2023-05-03

摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉

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13:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通前瞻美联储决议日资产表现：美股可能大涨2.5%，也可能跌1.25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332918419","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通预计，降息几率仅1%，若降息，标普500可能最大涨2.5%；本周加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%，若如此，标普可能最大涨1.0%；本周和下月继续加息的几率为45%，这种情形下标普最大跌1.25%","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摩根大通预计，降息几率仅1%，若降息，标普500可能最大涨2.5%；本周加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%，若如此，标普可能最大涨1.0%；本周和下月继续加息的几率为45%，这种情形下标普最大跌1.25%</blockquote><p>美东时间5月3日周三下午，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议结束后将公布利率决议。目前市场普遍预计联储将宣布继续加息25个基点。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席经济学家Michael Feroli预计，美联储本月加息25个基点，而后，6月有三分之一的可能再加息。</p><p>摩根大通的策略师Bram Kaplan用以下图表展示了，期权市场暗示的多种资产类别在美联储FOMC会后的波动幅度，以及过去一年、即本轮加息周期启动以来FOMC公布决议当天这些资产的波动。</p><p>对比一年来波动可见，期权市场预计的本周三股市、黄金、美债和美元波动总体低于过去一年FOMC决议日的平均水平，只有7到10年期美债的波动相对略高于平均水平。</p><p>Andrew Tyler领导的摩根大通市场情报团队预测了本周三FOMC决议的各种可能情形，以及相应的市场反应。</p><ul><li><p>降息的几率小于1%。</p></li></ul><p>即使在3月银行业危机的巅峰，市场定价也从未充分体现降息的结果，考虑到当前的金融环境，降息的可能性很低。一旦降息，标普500股指可能涨幅最大达2.5%。</p><ul><li><p>不加息、即暂停加息的几率为5%。</p></li></ul><p>假如美联储按兵不动，最初的市场反应可能是正面的，但这种波动可能消退，因为投资者可能将暂停行动解读为，未来会有更多银行业危机传染。宣布暂停加息当天，美股可能涨幅最大1.5%。</p><ul><li><p>加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%。</p></li></ul><p>这是摩根大通、也是市场定价目前预测的结果。美联储会将银行业危机引发的贷款标准提高视为变相加息的效果。任何被市场解读为美联储要暂停行动的措辞应该都会利好股市。标普500指数会在FOMC决议当天上涨0.5%到1.0%。</p><ul><li><p>加息、然后继续加息的几率为45%。</p></li></ul><p>这种结果是视数据而定的。6月FOMC会议前，还会公布两次CPI。如果美联储发现此后的CPI通胀没有下行趋势，可能就会继续紧缩。关键要看，美联储的措辞是否还认为适合更多加息。假如保持这种措辞，市场预期的终端利率会上升，可能美股会跌0.75%到1.25%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687856><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根大通预计，降息几率仅1%，若降息，标普500可能最大涨2.5%；本周加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%，若如此，标普可能最大涨1.0%；本周和下月继续加息的几率为45%，这种情形下标普最大跌1.25%美东时间5月3日周三下午，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议结束后将公布利率决议。目前市场普遍预计联储将宣布继续加息25个基点。摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli预计，美联储本月加息25...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687856\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c7daf76412881673b2b638fbe20e57","relate_stocks":{"LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services 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Kaplan用以下图表展示了，期权市场暗示的多种资产类别在美联储FOMC会后的波动幅度，以及过去一年、即本轮加息周期启动以来FOMC公布决议当天这些资产的波动。对比一年来波动可见，期权市场预计的本周三股市、黄金、美债和美元波动总体低于过去一年FOMC决议日的平均水平，只有7到10年期美债的波动相对略高于平均水平。Andrew Tyler领导的摩根大通市场情报团队预测了本周三FOMC决议的各种可能情形，以及相应的市场反应。降息的几率小于1%。即使在3月银行业危机的巅峰，市场定价也从未充分体现降息的结果，考虑到当前的金融环境，降息的可能性很低。一旦降息，标普500股指可能涨幅最大达2.5%。不加息、即暂停加息的几率为5%。假如美联储按兵不动，最初的市场反应可能是正面的，但这种波动可能消退，因为投资者可能将暂停行动解读为，未来会有更多银行业危机传染。宣布暂停加息当天，美股可能涨幅最大1.5%。加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%。这是摩根大通、也是市场定价目前预测的结果。美联储会将银行业危机引发的贷款标准提高视为变相加息的效果。任何被市场解读为美联储要暂停行动的措辞应该都会利好股市。标普500指数会在FOMC决议当天上涨0.5%到1.0%。加息、然后继续加息的几率为45%。这种结果是视数据而定的。6月FOMC会议前，还会公布两次CPI。如果美联储发现此后的CPI通胀没有下行趋势，可能就会继续紧缩。关键要看，美联储的措辞是否还认为适合更多加息。假如保持这种措辞，市场预期的终端利率会上升，可能美股会跌0.75%到1.25%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/658781474"}