$第一共和银行(FRC)$ Credit quality still remains good, though it has started softening from the historically low level of recent quarters. The magnitude of provisions in the Q1 earnings releases will be the big swing factor for year-over-year comparisons for the group.

Estimates for bank earnings have started coming down lately, with the negative revisions trend most pronounced for the regional players. For example, take a look at First Republic, which is currently expected to bring in $1.13 per share on $1.28 billion in revenues in its March quarter release on April 12th. This represents a -43.5% decline in EPS from the year-earlier level on -8.4% lower revenues. In terms of estimate revisions, First Republic’s current $1.13 per share estimate is down from $1.38 two weeks back and $1.66 at the start of January 2023.

Unlike First Republic, estimates for JPMorgan have largely remained stable. JPMorgan is expected to bring in $3.43 per share in earnings on $36.03 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year growth of +30.4% and +17.3%, respectively. The current Zacks Consensus EPS of $3.43 for 2023 Q1 is a hair below the $3.44 level on March 3rd and $3.41 on January 6th.

The contrasting revisions trend for First Republic and JPMorgan notwithstanding, it is reasonable to expect that bank earnings estimates will be under pressure going forward.