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@小镇做T家：最后的调整即将到来

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79bd8378
2023-04-08
79bd8378
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec9a64f6c524b76bf0e993be574f8be\"></p>\n<p><span><span>纳指从</span><span>12269</span><span>到</span><span>10982</span><span>，回调了</span><span>10.5%</span><span>。距离预期跌幅还差了不少。具体过程是：先下跌一个月，然后震荡接近两周，最后反弹三周。整体走势和预期倒是差不多。</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>然后再看恒科：</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b12789774e494e8dab249f757482f4\"></p>\n<p><span><span>从</span><span>4825</span><span>到</span><span>3754</span><span>，回调了</span><span>22.2%</span><span>，比预期的</span><span>15%~20%</span><span>的跌幅区间要大一些。但整体走势也是和预期的基本一致，呈现“下跌</span><span>-</span><span>震荡</span><span>-</span><span>反弹”的趋势。</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><span><span>但是</span><span>A</span><span>股就不走寻常路了，由于结构性行情，导致几大股指走势差异极大。比如上证就是在</span><span>3200</span><span>到</span><span>3300</span><span>之间来回震荡，下跌幅度最大也就</span><span>5%</span><span>左右的水平。</span></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5731900df13646299d77ee97631c7e05\"></p>\n<p><span>而创业板的走势就非常简单，大幅下跌后迎来小幅反弹。从</span><span>2661</span><span>到</span><span>2280</span><span>，回调</span><span>14.3%</span><span>。某种程度来说，其实创业板更符合我对</span><span>A</span><span>股指数的回调预期。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/997b148938fc4984816f9d3fea8327bb\"></p>\n<p><span>&nbsp;</span><span>至于中概，我更愿意用</span><span>“纳斯达克中国金龙指数”这个指标来观察，从</span><span>8320</span><span>到</span><span>6591</span><span>，回调幅度为</span><span>20.78%</span><span>，和恒科差不多。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41998c627974223a89f224769d264bd\"></p>\n<p><span>总的来说，上次预判，整体方向是对的，细节上有出入。</span></p>\n<p><span><span>至于后面的走势，其实还是延续我</span><span>2</span><span>月份文章中给出的判断，</span></span><em><span><span>走</span><span>“</span></span></em><strong><em><span><span>下跌</span><span>—</span><span>震荡</span><span>—</span><span>反弹</span><span>—</span><span>下跌</span></span></em></strong><em><span><span>”</span><span>这种模式</span></span></em><em><span>，</span></em><span>也就是正式进入第二个下跌周期。</span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>而第二个下跌周期的结束时间，可能会到五月底到六月初，也就是两个月的时间走完，细化走势的话，可能是</span><strong><em><span><span>“下跌</span><span>-</span><span>反弹</span><span>-</span><span>震荡</span><span>-</span><span>下跌”</span></span></em></strong><span>的节奏。</span><span></span></p>\n<p><span><span>这个结论，是按照我对美国基本面的解读，加上了一定的政策预判和股市走势技术分析而形成的。现在的结论和</span><span>2</span><span>月份那篇文章中基本保持一致，也就是说整体还在预期范围内，比如美联储的施政空间其实很小。很多影响短期市场情绪的公开数据，其实就是烟雾弹的效果，只能影响超短期（日内、一两天）走势，而中短期走势是改变不了的。</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>总之，风险依然存在，而且马上就要到来。</span><span></span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>先放结论：美港股最后的回调即将来临，注意风控！</span><span></span></p>\n<p><span><span>---</span></span></p>\n<p><span><span>2</span><span>月初的时候，我发表了一篇文章《下跌在即，注意风控<span>》</span>，里面有一些结论：</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><em><span><span>中美港几大股指即将迎来回调，从回调幅度来看：美股＞港股</span><span>≥中概＞</span><span>A</span><span>股。从回调幅度来看，</span></span></em><strong><em><span><span>美股可能回调</span><span>20%</span><span>左右甚至以上，而</span><span>A</span><span>股可能只回调</span><span>10%</span><span>到</span><span>15%</span><span>的幅度；港股和中概股则位于二者中间水平</span></span></em></strong><em><span>。</span></em><em><span></span></em></p>\n<p><em><span><span>从回调到位时间来看，</span>A<span>股港股美股可能都在</span><span>5~6</span><span>月份左右真正探底。当然这中间不会是一直向下，可能会走</span><span>“</span></span></em><strong><em><span><span>下跌</span><span>—</span><span>震荡</span><span>—</span><span>反弹</span><span>—</span><span>下跌</span></span></em></strong><em><span><span>”</span><span>这种模式。值得注意的是，第一波下跌可能会很快结束，比如半个月，也就是</span><span>10</span><span>个交易日基本就可以砸到位。</span></span></em><em><span></span></em></p>\n<p><em><span>注意，一般我看美港股，默认是纳指和恒科。小镇的镇民们一般都知道这个。</span></em><em><span></span></em></p>\n<p><span>那么两个月过去了，几大股指究竟表现如何呢？</span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>我们先看纳指：</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec9a64f6c524b76bf0e993be574f8be\"></p>\n<p><span><span>纳指从</span><span>12269</span><span>到</span><span>10982</span><span>，回调了</span><span>10.5%</span><span>。距离预期跌幅还差了不少。具体过程是：先下跌一个月，然后震荡接近两周，最后反弹三周。整体走势和预期倒是差不多。</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>然后再看恒科：</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b12789774e494e8dab249f757482f4\"></p>\n<p><span><span>从</span><span>4825</span><span>到</span><span>3754</span><span>，回调了</span><span>22.2%</span><span>，比预期的</span><span>15%~20%</span><span>的跌幅区间要大一些。但整体走势也是和预期的基本一致，呈现“下跌</span><span>-</span><span>震荡</span><span>-</span><span>反弹”的趋势。</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><span><span>但是</span><span>A</span><span>股就不走寻常路了，由于结构性行情，导致几大股指走势差异极大。比如上证就是在</span><span>3200</span><span>到</span><span>3300</span><span>之间来回震荡，下跌幅度最大也就</span><span>5%</span><span>左右的水平。</span></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5731900df13646299d77ee97631c7e05\"></p>\n<p><span>而创业板的走势就非常简单，大幅下跌后迎来小幅反弹。从</span><span>2661</span><span>到</span><span>2280</span><span>，回调</span><span>14.3%</span><span>。某种程度来说，其实创业板更符合我对</span><span>A</span><span>股指数的回调预期。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/997b148938fc4984816f9d3fea8327bb\"></p>\n<p><span>&nbsp;</span><span>至于中概，我更愿意用</span><span>“纳斯达克中国金龙指数”这个指标来观察，从</span><span>8320</span><span>到</span><span>6591</span><span>，回调幅度为</span><span>20.78%</span><span>，和恒科差不多。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41998c627974223a89f224769d264bd\"></p>\n<p><span>总的来说，上次预判，整体方向是对的，细节上有出入。</span></p>\n<p><span><span>至于后面的走势，其实还是延续我</span><span>2</span><span>月份文章中给出的判断，</span></span><em><span><span>走</span><span>“</span></span></em><strong><em><span><span>下跌</span><span>—</span><span>震荡</span><span>—</span><span>反弹</span><span>—</span><span>下跌</span></span></em></strong><em><span><span>”</span><span>这种模式</span></span></em><em><span>，</span></em><span>也就是正式进入第二个下跌周期。</span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>而第二个下跌周期的结束时间，可能会到五月底到六月初，也就是两个月的时间走完，细化走势的话，可能是</span><strong><em><span><span>“下跌</span><span>-</span><span>反弹</span><span>-</span><span>震荡</span><span>-</span><span>下跌”</span></span></em></strong><span>的节奏。</span><span></span></p>\n<p><span><span>这个结论，是按照我对美国基本面的解读，加上了一定的政策预判和股市走势技术分析而形成的。现在的结论和</span><span>2</span><span>月份那篇文章中基本保持一致，也就是说整体还在预期范围内，比如美联储的施政空间其实很小。很多影响短期市场情绪的公开数据，其实就是烟雾弹的效果，只能影响超短期（日内、一两天）走势，而中短期走势是改变不了的。</span></span><span></span></p>\n<p><span>总之，风险依然存在，而且马上就要到来。</span><span></span></p></body></html>","text":"先放结论：美港股最后的回调即将来临，注意风控！ --- 2月初的时候，我发表了一篇文章《下跌在即，注意风控》，里面有一些结论： 中美港几大股指即将迎来回调，从回调幅度来看：美股＞港股≥中概＞A股。从回调幅度来看，美股可能回调20%左右甚至以上，而A股可能只回调10%到15%的幅度；港股和中概股则位于二者中间水平。 从回调到位时间来看，A股港股美股可能都在5~6月份左右真正探底。当然这中间不会是一直向下，可能会走“下跌—震荡—反弹—下跌”这种模式。值得注意的是，第一波下跌可能会很快结束，比如半个月，也就是10个交易日基本就可以砸到位。 注意，一般我看美港股，默认是纳指和恒科。小镇的镇民们一般都知道这个。 那么两个月过去了，几大股指究竟表现如何呢？ 我们先看纳指： 纳指从12269到10982，回调了10.5%。距离预期跌幅还差了不少。具体过程是：先下跌一个月，然后震荡接近两周，最后反弹三周。整体走势和预期倒是差不多。 然后再看恒科： 从4825到3754，回调了22.2%，比预期的15%~20%的跌幅区间要大一些。但整体走势也是和预期的基本一致，呈现“下跌-震荡-反弹”的趋势。 但是A股就不走寻常路了，由于结构性行情，导致几大股指走势差异极大。比如上证就是在3200到3300之间来回震荡，下跌幅度最大也就5%左右的水平。 而创业板的走势就非常简单，大幅下跌后迎来小幅反弹。从2661到2280，回调14.3%。某种程度来说，其实创业板更符合我对A股指数的回调预期。 至于中概，我更愿意用“纳斯达克中国金龙指数”这个指标来观察，从8320到6591，回调幅度为20.78%，和恒科差不多。 总的来说，上次预判，整体方向是对的，细节上有出入。 至于后面的走势，其实还是延续我2月份文章中给出的判断，走“下跌—震荡—反弹—下跌”这种模式，也就是正式进入第二个下跌周期。 而第二个下跌周期的结束时间，可能会到五月底到六月初，也就是两个月的时间走完，细化走势的话，可能是“下跌-反弹-震荡-下跌”的节奏。 这个结论，是按照我对美国基本面的解读，加上了一定的政策预判和股市走势技术分析而形成的。现在的结论和2月份那篇文章中基本保持一致，也就是说整体还在预期范围内，比如美联储的施政空间其实很小。很多影响短期市场情绪的公开数据，其实就是烟雾弹的效果，只能影响超短期（日内、一两天）走势，而中短期走势是改变不了的。 总之，风险依然存在，而且马上就要到来。","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653993235","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1807,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7942136,"commentId":"7942136","gmtCreate":1680934339490,"gmtModify":1680934343322,"authorId":4096025336749130,"author":{"id":4096025336749130,"idStr":"4096025336749130","authorId":4096025336749130,"name":"79bd8378","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/048415ce28efe522291a14d3d3db53be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":653143943,"objectIdStr":"653143943","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"美女🇨🇳","text":"美女🇨🇳","html":"美女🇨🇳","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/653143943"}