Is Snowflake Stock A Buy Right Now?

‌$Snowflake(SNOW)$‌+3.72%

Is Snowflake Stock A Buy Amid Software Sector Volatility?‌[思考] ‌‌[思考] ‌‌[思考] ‌‌[思考] ‌‌[思考] ‌

Think of Snowflake stock as a proxy on the torrid growth of cloud computing giants Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google.

Stellar customer growth enabled SNOW stock to pull off the largest initial public offering ever by a software company in September 2020. The Snowflake (SNOW) IPO raised $3.4 billion.

For the October quarter, Snowflake reported a narrower-than-expected loss while revenue blew past estimates. January-quarter guidance for SNOW stock also came in above expectations.

But is Snowflake stock a buy right now amid volatility in the tech-heavy Nasdaq? SNOW stock is down 21% in 2022.

One issue is how software growth stocks are doing generally.

A closely watched software benchmark — the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has contracted 15% in 2022. It fell 4.2% in December after pulling back 5.5% in November.

For all of 2021, the IGV software index gained 12.3% vs. the S&P 500's nearly 27% advance. In 2020, the software index soared nearly 52% vs. the S&P 500's gain of 16.3%.

In addition, SNOW stock has dropped off the IBD Leaderboard. The Leaderboard is IBD's curated list of leading stocks that stand out on technical and fundamental metrics.

SNOW Stock: Synergy With Cloud Computing Giants

Many companies are turning to cloud computing services as part of "digital transformation" projects that aim to gain business insights from crunching massive volumes of data. The cloud computing titans offer their own data analytics and management tools.

But the cloud giants make Snowflake's platform available to their customers. The reason is Snowflake's tools are better at some key tasks, such as letting companies compile, view, analyze and share massive amounts of data in an easy way.

Nearly two-fifths of Fortune 500 companies use Snowflake's software in the cloud as they move away from on-premise data warehousing products from Teradata (TDC), Oracle (ORCL) and IBM (IBM).

One Snowflake customer is pharma giant Pfizer (PFE). Pfizer uses Snowflake tools to forecast product sales and to gain insights into the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine.

Snowflake Stock: Competition Increasing

Snowflake stock hit an all-time high of 429 in early December last year. But SNOW stock swooned in late 2020 amid analyst concerns over its lofty valuation.

At a June 10 analyst day, Snowflake laid out a path to $10 billion in product revenue by fiscal 2029, which coincides with calendar 2028. The $10 billion revenue target would result in a compound annual growth rate of 44%.

The company said it expects to increase the number of customers with over $1 million in product revenue. Snowflake also guided to long-term operating margin of 10%-plus, lower than some analysts expected.

Snowflake in July announced support for digital advertising standard Unified ID 2.0. Advertising is one of Snowflake's largest verticals with customers representing a large percentage of players in the space, noted a RBC Capital report. The move comes as Google phases out internet cookies for targeted advertising.

Whether Amazon Web Services or Google cloud ratchet up competition remains a concern for SNOW stock. Plus, competition with privately held Databricks is heating up. A February funding round valued Databricks at $28 billion.

Databricks, which uses artificial intelligence, is expected to launch its own IPO. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), with its GreenLake platform, is another rival.

Snowflake stock bulls point to its seasoned management team as a strength no matter what unfolds.

Two former Oracle engineers — Benoit Dageville and Thierry Cruanes — along with Marcin Zukowski, former chief executive of startup Vectorwise, started Snowflake in 2012. The company holds patents in database architecture, data warehouses and other areas.

SNOW Stock: ServiceNow Veterans Lead Company

Snowflake brought in Frank Slootman as chief executive in May 2019. Slootman had stepped down as CEO of ServiceNow in early 2017. Former ServiceNow Chief Financial Officer Mike Scarpelli in 2019 also joined Snowflake in the same CFO position.

Unlike legacy, on-premise data management systems, Snowflake's platform was built from the ground up for cloud computing. It provides 100% of its software over the internet.

Snowflake customers can share data with their partners across multiple online storage systems using the company's data warehouse. Snowflake also enables easily searchable data to be shared among applications.

Snowflake's data analytics tools became available on Amazon Web Services in 2015, Microsoft's Azure in 2018 and on Google's cloud platform in 2020.

In June, Snowflake partnered with C3.ai (AI). The two companies will cooperate in offering artificial intelligence tools to companies.

Amazon Web Services A 'Frenemy'

"While Snowflake is multi-cloud, it derives some 85% of its revenues from data analytics jobs deployed on Amazon Web Services, which is also Snowflake's biggest rival with AWS Redshift," UBS analyst Karl Keirstead said in a recent note to clients.

"This 'frenemy' relationship is critical to Snowflake's success," Keirstead went on to say. "AWS benefits far more from Snowflake spending on compute and storage infrastructure resources than they lose in the form of foregone AWS Redshift revenues."

Snowflake has focused on six core markets, including financial services, health care and life sciences, retail and consumer packaged goods, advertising media and entertainment, technology, and the government sector.

When Snowflake went public in September it used a dual-class share structure that gave its CEO and insiders super-voting rights. However, Snowflake eliminated the dual-class structure in March.

Snowflake had been based in San Mateo, Calif. Amid the shift to remote work spurred by the coronavirus emergency, Snowflake in May said it no longer has a corporate headquarters. It designated Bozeman, Mont., as its principal executive office. Slootman and Scarpelli are based in Bozeman.

Snowflake Stock Fundamental Analysis

Software stocks typically trade as a multiple of forward-looking revenue growth. Software-as-a-service, or SaaS, companies, such as Salesforce.com (CRM), typically provide the highest revenue growth. Salesforce is a key marketing partner of SNOW stock.

Snowflake also partners with consulting firms such as Deloitte and information technology firms such as privately held Informatica.

Snowflake is not an SaaS company, however. Instead, it uses a consumption-based business model based on how much data its customers crunch and store.

Snowflake's revenue growth stands out. But there's less transparency and predictability than with subscription-based, recurring-revenue SaaS business models, analysts say.

"SNOW has a consumption model, whereby customers contract for a certain amount of compute and storage capacity," Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz said in a note. "The company only records revenue, however, as that capacity is used, so there can be a lag of several months or more before revenue recognition begins."

Snowflake is nearing an annual revenue run-rate of $1 billion. That's a big milestone for software growth companies. But SNOW stock is unprofitable on the two most common accounting standards.

Many software companies are unprofitable using GAAP earnings, or generally accepted accounting principles, which includes stock-based compensation. But they're profitable on a non-GAAP or "adjusted" earnings basis.

Snowflake Stock Gains Traction In Large Deals

Snowflake said Q3 revenue jumped 110% from a year earlier to $334.4 million. Meanwhile, analysts had estimated Snowflake revenue at $305.6 million.

Snowflake stock reported a loss of 51 cents a share using generally accepted accounting principles compared with a loss of $1.01 per share a year earlier. Analysts expected the company to report a loss of 60 cents.

The provider of cloud-based data analytics software said product revenue rose 110% during the quarter to $312 million, compared with estimates of $284 million.

In addition, Snowflake said it now has 148 customers with "trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million," up from 116 such customers as of July 31.

For the current quarter ending in January, Snowflake forecasts product revenue in a range of $345 million to $350 million, topping estimates of $316 million.

SNOW Stock Technical Analysis

Snowflake stock went public on Sept. 16, 2020, at 120 a share. At the time, software growth stocks were hot as investors sought recurring revenue amid the coronavirus emergency.

SNOW stock popped as high as 319 on the first day of trading and closed 111.6% above the IPO price at 253.93. Shares pulled back as analysts debated Snowflake's valuation.

Snowflake stock forged a cup-with-handle base over the next two months. The new base created an entry point of 301. SNOW stock blew past the buy point, hitting an all-time high of 429 on Dec. 8 in 2020.

Meanwhile, Snowflake stock hit a 12-month low of 184.71 on May 13 2021.

Is Snowflake Stock A Buy Right Now?

Snowflake stock owns a Relative Strength Rating of 41 out of a best-possible 99.

In addition, SNOW stock holds an IBD Composite Rating of 27 out of a best possible 99, according to IBD Stock Checkup.

IBD's Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.

Snowflake stock has an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of E, according to IBD MarketSmith analysis. That rating analyzes price and volume changes in a stock over the past 13 weeks of trading.

The rating, on an A+ to E scale, measures institutional buying and selling in a stock. A+ signifies heavy institutional buying; E means heavy selling. Think of the C grade as neutral.

Snowflake stock holds an entry point of 405.10. As of Jan. 24, Snowflake stock is not in a buy zone.