为何油价短期内很难回落？

2022-03-24

一个基本结论是：全球石油需求复苏的速度快于供需增长的速度。

目前全球石油需求已经恢复到疫情前夕的水平，而且根据预测，未来需求还会进一步增多。但是供给侧却无法保证相同速度的增长，尤其是今年的供需缺口可能会进一步扩大。更多的出行需求、飙升的煤炭和天然气价格，以及发展中国家强劲的需求，都助推着石油价格的飙升，尤其是俄乌冲突问题，将油价进一步推高。

至于石油供应问题，一方面是欧美对俄制裁的影响，另外一方面是前几年全球范围内受碳达峰和碳中和影响，削减了扩大石油产能的投资，由于这是一类长期投资，所以无法通过短期内增大投资就顺利解决产能问题。所以小镇看来，石油价格短期内难以大幅回落，可能今年整年都会在高位徘徊。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$中国石油(601857)$$英国石油(BP)$$WTI原油2204(CL2204)$

俄乌危机震动全球市场

俄罗斯与乌克兰的紧张局势不止重创俄罗斯金融市场，西方世界、尤其是毗邻俄罗斯的欧洲市场都未能幸免。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

山河故人在
2022-03-25
山河故人在
主要是国外的疫情恢复了，完全的复工复产催生了石油需求的迅速攀升
完美少年
2022-03-25
完美少年
最近的石油涨价完完全全就是人为因素造成的
听风于野
2022-03-25
听风于野
油价涨不涨，短期国内的油价也是不会降的
长歌灯火时
2022-03-25
长歌灯火时
世界范围内，好几个主要石油供给端都出问题了，很难不涨价
空对庭深
2022-03-25
空对庭深
历史经验表明，油价在经历一轮上涨之后，总要满满回落的，只是周期的长短问题
书煮日月
2022-03-25
书煮日月
涨吧涨吧，少开点车就行

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":637643858,"tweetId":"637643858","gmtCreate":1648060056729,"gmtModify":1648337716832,"author":{"id":3538087091501291,"idStr":"3538087091501291","authorId":3538087091501291,"authorIdStr":"3538087091501291","name":"小镇做T家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef0ee32208f951b13f627ec6aa4ea3c","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"A股散户情绪量化分析第一人。行业分析、公司分析","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10399,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"5b2bdf9043654357acb1f1cc4d54c3f3","categoryId":"2929bb7468f5415f853fd96fb35d7c3b","name":"俄乌危机震动全球市场","type":2,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/special/finance&rndata={\"themeId\":5b2bdf9043654357acb1f1cc4d54c3f3}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"俄罗斯与乌克兰的紧张局势不止重创俄罗斯金融市场，西方世界、尤其是毗邻俄罗斯的欧洲市场都未能幸免。","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687ddabb3ff9ce40784b0552bf4eda6d"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a5cefcddc0de1790727a1467161871","width":"1177","height":"918"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a5cefcddc0de1790727a1467161871","width":"1177","height":"918"}],"title":"为何油价短期内很难回落？","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body> 一个基本结论是：全球石油需求复苏的速度快于供需增长的速度。目前全球石油需求已经恢复到疫情前夕的水平，而且根据预测，未来需求还会进一步增多。但是供给侧却无法保证相同速度的增长，尤其是今年的供需缺口可能会进一步扩大。更多的出行需求、飙升的煤炭和天然气价格，以及发展中国家强劲的需求，都助推着石油价格的飙升，尤其是俄乌冲突问题，将油价进一步推高。 至于石油供应问题，一方面是欧美对俄制裁的影响，另外一方面是前几年全球范围内受碳达峰和碳中和影响，削减了扩大石油产能的投资，由于这是一类长期投资，所以无法通过短期内增大投资就顺利解决产能问题。所以小镇看来，石油价格短期内难以大幅回落，可能今年整年都会在高位徘徊。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">$中国石油(601857)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">$英国石油(BP)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2204\">$WTI原油2204(CL2204)$&nbsp;</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a5cefcddc0de1790727a1467161871\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"918\"></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body> 一个基本结论是：全球石油需求复苏的速度快于供需增长的速度。目前全球石油需求已经恢复到疫情前夕的水平，而且根据预测，未来需求还会进一步增多。但是供给侧却无法保证相同速度的增长，尤其是今年的供需缺口可能会进一步扩大。更多的出行需求、飙升的煤炭和天然气价格，以及发展中国家强劲的需求，都助推着石油价格的飙升，尤其是俄乌冲突问题，将油价进一步推高。 至于石油供应问题，一方面是欧美对俄制裁的影响，另外一方面是前几年全球范围内受碳达峰和碳中和影响，削减了扩大石油产能的投资，由于这是一类长期投资，所以无法通过短期内增大投资就顺利解决产能问题。所以小镇看来，石油价格短期内难以大幅回落，可能今年整年都会在高位徘徊。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">$中国石油(601857)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">$英国石油(BP)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2204\">$WTI原油2204(CL2204)$&nbsp;</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a5cefcddc0de1790727a1467161871\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"918\"></body></html>","text":"一个基本结论是：全球石油需求复苏的速度快于供需增长的速度。 目前全球石油需求已经恢复到疫情前夕的水平，而且根据预测，未来需求还会进一步增多。但是供给侧却无法保证相同速度的增长，尤其是今年的供需缺口可能会进一步扩大。更多的出行需求、飙升的煤炭和天然气价格，以及发展中国家强劲的需求，都助推着石油价格的飙升，尤其是俄乌冲突问题，将油价进一步推高。 至于石油供应问题，一方面是欧美对俄制裁的影响，另外一方面是前几年全球范围内受碳达峰和碳中和影响，削减了扩大石油产能的投资，由于这是一类长期投资，所以无法通过短期内增大投资就顺利解决产能问题。所以小镇看来，石油价格短期内难以大幅回落，可能今年整年都会在高位徘徊。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$中国石油(601857)$$英国石油(BP)$$WTI原油2204(CL2204)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637643858","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4494,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["601857",".IXIC","BP","CLmain","CL2204"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":648,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7316555,"commentId":"7316555","gmtCreate":1648217888692,"gmtModify":1648217888692,"authorId":9000000000000566,"author":{"id":9000000000000566,"idStr":"9000000000000566","authorId":9000000000000566,"name":"山河故人在","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":637643858,"objectIdStr":"637643858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"主要是国外的疫情恢复了，完全的复工复产催生了石油需求的迅速攀升","text":"主要是国外的疫情恢复了，完全的复工复产催生了石油需求的迅速攀升","html":"主要是国外的疫情恢复了，完全的复工复产催生了石油需求的迅速攀升","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7316553,"commentId":"7316553","gmtCreate":1648217846244,"gmtModify":1648217846244,"authorId":9000000000000573,"author":{"id":9000000000000573,"idStr":"9000000000000573","authorId":9000000000000573,"name":"完美少年","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":637643858,"objectIdStr":"637643858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"最近的石油涨价完完全全就是人为因素造成的","text":"最近的石油涨价完完全全就是人为因素造成的","html":"最近的石油涨价完完全全就是人为因素造成的","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7316544,"commentId":"7316544","gmtCreate":1648217751522,"gmtModify":1648217751522,"authorId":9000000000000666,"author":{"id":9000000000000666,"idStr":"9000000000000666","authorId":9000000000000666,"name":"听风于野","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":637643858,"objectIdStr":"637643858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"油价涨不涨，短期国内的油价也是不会降的","text":"油价涨不涨，短期国内的油价也是不会降的","html":"油价涨不涨，短期国内的油价也是不会降的","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7316539,"commentId":"7316539","gmtCreate":1648217664250,"gmtModify":1648217664250,"authorId":9000000000000424,"author":{"id":9000000000000424,"idStr":"9000000000000424","authorId":9000000000000424,"name":"长歌灯火时","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907cd7c24e0c3693fe01cf437bf1e553","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":637643858,"objectIdStr":"637643858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"世界范围内，好几个主要石油供给端都出问题了，很难不涨价","text":"世界范围内，好几个主要石油供给端都出问题了，很难不涨价","html":"世界范围内，好几个主要石油供给端都出问题了，很难不涨价","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7316533,"commentId":"7316533","gmtCreate":1648217588236,"gmtModify":1648217588236,"authorId":9000000000000445,"author":{"id":9000000000000445,"idStr":"9000000000000445","authorId":9000000000000445,"name":"空对庭深","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3803d54242ac3f0edb01e6ea47ae93","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":637643858,"objectIdStr":"637643858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"历史经验表明，油价在经历一轮上涨之后，总要满满回落的，只是周期的长短问题","text":"历史经验表明，油价在经历一轮上涨之后，总要满满回落的，只是周期的长短问题","html":"历史经验表明，油价在经历一轮上涨之后，总要满满回落的，只是周期的长短问题","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7316569,"commentId":"7316569","gmtCreate":1648218059347,"gmtModify":1648218059347,"authorId":9000000000000670,"author":{"id":9000000000000670,"idStr":"9000000000000670","authorId":9000000000000670,"name":"书煮日月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":637643858,"objectIdStr":"637643858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"涨吧涨吧，少开点车就行","text":"涨吧涨吧，少开点车就行","html":"涨吧涨吧，少开点车就行","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/637643858"}