orcishkx
2022-03-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@大天:
第9周:相持
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class=\"teditor-emoji\">[冷漠]</span> <span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[冷漠]</span> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac5a793ee873d3c7e4e79263262eb127\"></p><p>行情上,随着俄乌交火态势的持续,这里大盘受美联储加息预期的影响会暂时弱于战争走势的作用。不过,我认为俄乌战争的总体走势已经基本确定,虽然过程一波三折,但在北约没敢出兵的情况下,俄罗斯最终还是形成了对基辅的包围态势,胜利几成定局——这也能从乌克兰谈判立场的软化(不谋求加入北约)以及美国做好泽连斯基死亡预案的表态里得到验证。</p><p>基于此,我有这么几个判断:</p><p>1.俄罗斯在战场局势占优后,很可能与乌克兰通过谈判达成共识。不论乌克兰最后作出多大让步,西方都不太可能让制裁显著升级,因此能源断供的担忧应该不会成真,油价加速上涨的趋势有希望在那时得到遏制。</p><p>2.战争结束后,美股也将再次回到美联储调控时间。由于战争影响,美联储三月份的加息应该不会超预期,后续的加息节奏虽然仍不确定,但如果能源价格能逐渐稳住,在中期选举的大背景下,今年美联储应该不会如悲观人士预期的那么鹰,利率加加停停是大概率事件。那么,如果某次美股因为加息预期而过分走低,中短线反而可能有机会。</p><p>3.但是,大环境仍然是加息,所以对于成长股,今年可能有短期超跌的反弹,但压估值以增加安全边际的投资逻辑恐怕还会占主导。如果你的投资标的没有爆炸性的业绩或者产量/市场份额突破,那么还是要做好长期作战的准备(比如腾讯<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[捂脸]</span> )。</p><p>4.大家要平衡好国内和海外的投资比重,尤其是资产过亿的诸位大佬,九十多岁的李嘉诚都能说走就走,咱们的腿脚可比他利索多了<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[吃瓜]</span> <span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[吃瓜]</span> 。</p><p>就这样。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>上周战事相持,联储含糊,资本家很不高兴,于是三大股指果断收阴。纳指最惨,下跌2.78%,连带把我的总资产也拉下去3.34%。虽然收益依然很不理想,但比起前面实打实的止损割肉,上周这样的账面小亏已经不算啥了,今年需要皮糙肉厚<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[冷漠]</span> <span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[冷漠]</span> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac5a793ee873d3c7e4e79263262eb127\"></p><p>行情上,随着俄乌交火态势的持续,这里大盘受美联储加息预期的影响会暂时弱于战争走势的作用。不过,我认为俄乌战争的总体走势已经基本确定,虽然过程一波三折,但在北约没敢出兵的情况下,俄罗斯最终还是形成了对基辅的包围态势,胜利几成定局——这也能从乌克兰谈判立场的软化(不谋求加入北约)以及美国做好泽连斯基死亡预案的表态里得到验证。</p><p>基于此,我有这么几个判断:</p><p>1.俄罗斯在战场局势占优后,很可能与乌克兰通过谈判达成共识。不论乌克兰最后作出多大让步,西方都不太可能让制裁显著升级,因此能源断供的担忧应该不会成真,油价加速上涨的趋势有希望在那时得到遏制。</p><p>2.战争结束后,美股也将再次回到美联储调控时间。由于战争影响,美联储三月份的加息应该不会超预期,后续的加息节奏虽然仍不确定,但如果能源价格能逐渐稳住,在中期选举的大背景下,今年美联储应该不会如悲观人士预期的那么鹰,利率加加停停是大概率事件。那么,如果某次美股因为加息预期而过分走低,中短线反而可能有机会。</p><p>3.但是,大环境仍然是加息,所以对于成长股,今年可能有短期超跌的反弹,但压估值以增加安全边际的投资逻辑恐怕还会占主导。如果你的投资标的没有爆炸性的业绩或者产量/市场份额突破,那么还是要做好长期作战的准备(比如腾讯<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[捂脸]</span> )。</p><p>4.大家要平衡好国内和海外的投资比重,尤其是资产过亿的诸位大佬,九十多岁的李嘉诚都能说走就走,咱们的腿脚可比他利索多了<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[吃瓜]</span> <span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[吃瓜]</span> 。</p><p>就这样。</p></body></html>","text":"上周战事相持,联储含糊,资本家很不高兴,于是三大股指果断收阴。纳指最惨,下跌2.78%,连带把我的总资产也拉下去3.34%。虽然收益依然很不理想,但比起前面实打实的止损割肉,上周这样的账面小亏已经不算啥了,今年需要皮糙肉厚[冷漠] [冷漠] 行情上,随着俄乌交火态势的持续,这里大盘受美联储加息预期的影响会暂时弱于战争走势的作用。不过,我认为俄乌战争的总体走势已经基本确定,虽然过程一波三折,但在北约没敢出兵的情况下,俄罗斯最终还是形成了对基辅的包围态势,胜利几成定局——这也能从乌克兰谈判立场的软化(不谋求加入北约)以及美国做好泽连斯基死亡预案的表态里得到验证。 基于此,我有这么几个判断: 1.俄罗斯在战场局势占优后,很可能与乌克兰通过谈判达成共识。不论乌克兰最后作出多大让步,西方都不太可能让制裁显著升级,因此能源断供的担忧应该不会成真,油价加速上涨的趋势有希望在那时得到遏制。 2.战争结束后,美股也将再次回到美联储调控时间。由于战争影响,美联储三月份的加息应该不会超预期,后续的加息节奏虽然仍不确定,但如果能源价格能逐渐稳住,在中期选举的大背景下,今年美联储应该不会如悲观人士预期的那么鹰,利率加加停停是大概率事件。那么,如果某次美股因为加息预期而过分走低,中短线反而可能有机会。 3.但是,大环境仍然是加息,所以对于成长股,今年可能有短期超跌的反弹,但压估值以增加安全边际的投资逻辑恐怕还会占主导。如果你的投资标的没有爆炸性的业绩或者产量/市场份额突破,那么还是要做好长期作战的准备(比如腾讯[捂脸] )。 4.大家要平衡好国内和海外的投资比重,尤其是资产过亿的诸位大佬,九十多岁的李嘉诚都能说走就走,咱们的腿脚可比他利索多了[吃瓜] [吃瓜] 。 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