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亚马逊盘后飙涨18%！原因竟是机器误读了数据？

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Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gainof $11.8 billion included in non-operating income from  our common stockinvestment  in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive, Inc.</a>, which completed an initial public  offering in November.</p><p>我回算一下，如果没有Rivian的投资收益，那么亚马逊每股收益会降低83%，是每股$4.85，那就和分析师的预期很靠近了。抛开这种一次性的收益要除开之外，Rivian现在的价格只有12月31日的6折，那么下一个季度亚马逊的净利就会相应减少很大一块。下一个季度，如果分析师不考虑Rivian估计的话，那么实际EPS会大大低于预期。</p><p>被机器控制的市场非常不理性，亚马逊不该涨，却因为机器的误读涨了。当然股价被机器轰起来以后，各种人为合理的解读就来了，什么Prime涨价了，股票拆股了，感觉都是利好消息了，反身性会迅速加强。所以未来，人类被机器牵着鼻子走是大概率事情。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>亚马逊盘后飙涨18%！原因竟是机器误读了数据？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n亚马逊盘后飙涨18%！原因竟是机器误读了数据？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-04 09:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>这个季报周，对公司前景展望不好的惩罚力度非常大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>的前瞻指引也很弱，预计下一个季度营收$1,120-1,170亿，分析师预期$1,205亿；经营利润$30-60亿，分析师预期$60.6亿。即使是这个季度，亚马逊的营收都略微低于预期（少了$4亿）。就这种季报，别说这个季报周，任何一个季报周都应该跌，但亚马逊季报后却上涨18%（今天常规时间下跌7%）。</p><p>抛开逼空的因素，季报一出来股价就猛涨，那只能说明是机器的解读。那么机器看到的是什么呢？是彭博的数据，这个季度最“惊喜”的地方来源于每股收益$27.75，超过分析师预期635.88%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0204f99c42e4bc1d78d497a80435d3b6\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为什么分析师错的这么离谱？第一是因为分析师的预期数字3.77靠近0，所以这个区间的数字稍微一偏差，比例就很大。但更重要的原因，是亚马逊把Rivian(就是那个电动车)的投资收益算进去了。</p><p>根据亚马逊自己的说法</p><p>Netincome increased to $14.3 billion in the fourth quarter, or $27.75 per dilutedshare, compared with $7.2 billion, or $14.09 per diluted share, in fourthquarter 2020. Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gainof $11.8 billion included in non-operating income from  our common stockinvestment  in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive, Inc.</a>, which completed an initial public  offering in November.</p><p>我回算一下，如果没有Rivian的投资收益，那么亚马逊每股收益会降低83%，是每股$4.85，那就和分析师的预期很靠近了。抛开这种一次性的收益要除开之外，Rivian现在的价格只有12月31日的6折，那么下一个季度亚马逊的净利就会相应减少很大一块。下一个季度，如果分析师不考虑Rivian估计的话，那么实际EPS会大大低于预期。</p><p>被机器控制的市场非常不理性，亚马逊不该涨，却因为机器的误读涨了。当然股价被机器轰起来以后，各种人为合理的解读就来了，什么Prime涨价了，股票拆股了，感觉都是利好消息了，反身性会迅速加强。所以未来，人类被机器牵着鼻子走是大概率事情。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a7c3b01fe631a9615e5ce7fd89ba66","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179557548","content_text":"这个季报周，对公司前景展望不好的惩罚力度非常大。亚马逊的前瞻指引也很弱，预计下一个季度营收$1,120-1,170亿，分析师预期$1,205亿；经营利润$30-60亿，分析师预期$60.6亿。即使是这个季度，亚马逊的营收都略微低于预期（少了$4亿）。就这种季报，别说这个季报周，任何一个季报周都应该跌，但亚马逊季报后却上涨18%（今天常规时间下跌7%）。抛开逼空的因素，季报一出来股价就猛涨，那只能说明是机器的解读。那么机器看到的是什么呢？是彭博的数据，这个季度最“惊喜”的地方来源于每股收益$27.75，超过分析师预期635.88%。为什么分析师错的这么离谱？第一是因为分析师的预期数字3.77靠近0，所以这个区间的数字稍微一偏差，比例就很大。但更重要的原因，是亚马逊把Rivian(就是那个电动车)的投资收益算进去了。根据亚马逊自己的说法Netincome increased to $14.3 billion in the fourth quarter, or $27.75 per dilutedshare, compared with $7.2 billion, or $14.09 per diluted share, in fourthquarter 2020. Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gainof $11.8 billion included in non-operating income from  our common stockinvestment  in Rivian Automotive, Inc., which completed an initial public  offering in November.我回算一下，如果没有Rivian的投资收益，那么亚马逊每股收益会降低83%，是每股$4.85，那就和分析师的预期很靠近了。抛开这种一次性的收益要除开之外，Rivian现在的价格只有12月31日的6折，那么下一个季度亚马逊的净利就会相应减少很大一块。下一个季度，如果分析师不考虑Rivian估计的话，那么实际EPS会大大低于预期。被机器控制的市场非常不理性，亚马逊不该涨，却因为机器的误读涨了。当然股价被机器轰起来以后，各种人为合理的解读就来了，什么Prime涨价了，股票拆股了，感觉都是利好消息了，反身性会迅速加强。所以未来，人类被机器牵着鼻子走是大概率事情。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1524,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/633864881"}