周三老鲍的讲话预测

Alata的波动空间

2022-01-24

这周三的美联储会议将会是上半年最重要的宏观事件没有之一美联储可能在多个方面出现更为鹰派的行动以及沟通：

1）在本次会议上直接停止QE并加息25bp （概率5-10%）

2）本次会议上直接公布停止QE（概率20%）

3）沟通今年的加息路径从三月开始暗示未来7次美联储会议都有可能加息（概率60%）

4）不会排除一次加息25bp以上的选项（概率60%）

5）更多关于QT（缩表）的前瞻指引有可能5月就开始具体数量每月在 700-1000亿之间（60%为美债 40%为房产抵押债券）

6）预期措辞上对于通胀和通胀预期的担忧对于就业市场和疫情的乐观。

具体到资产配置方面算个命

A股比美股强

SnP比纳指强

价值比成长强

FAAMG比小盘科技强

利率曲线熊平（5年/30年）

转自好友国师

晒晒我的复盘笔记

交易复盘是每个投资者的必修课，分享复盘笔记，可以帮助我们更好的修正自己的交易行为。小虎君想邀请广大虎友阶段性的复盘自己的交易，总结自己的交易得失。欢迎大家积极参与！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

揭人不揭短
2022-01-24
揭人不揭短
你的好友国师看上去有点厉害，和你一样历害的样子
- Alata的波动空间:
  不厉害，我们不会叫他国师。我是韭菜
小时候可帅了00
2022-01-24
小时候可帅了00
我在想一个事情，要是美国股市崩了，那中国的股市也会崩
老夫的少女心_
2022-01-24
老夫的少女心_
我感觉FAAMG现在可能也不保险了，这次的反垄断就是个信号
权力的游戏厅
2022-01-24
权力的游戏厅
停止QE，加息，缩表，每一件事情都是炸弹，很忧愁
玉米地里吃亏
2022-01-24
玉米地里吃亏
一直以为美股是价值投资，现在看来也不一定
哎呀呀小伙子
2022-01-24
哎呀呀小伙子
未来7次美联储会议都有可能加息，这个就比较狠了，会不会让股市崩盘？

发表看法

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