陈青牛牛
2022-04-28
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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【期权看财报】半导体发生了点变化,AMD/NVDA大量组合期权异动
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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$</a> 半导体指数ETF这轮反弹至反弹到第一个阻力就倒头了,现在已经跌破了3月的低点,但纳斯达克较3月低点还有5%左右的空间。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c54cf04cf0d39a71a935c4eab5fb0e70\" tg-width=\"2202\" tg-height=\"1328\">如果SMH继续下跌,看看它的主要成分股:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> 等可能还会不同程度继续下跌。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77579c498729eacb22f1ea65d632e2d0\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\">我细查了行业发生了什么?目前芯片的需求紧缺仍然是存在,很多消息说今年下半年这种缺货状态会有缓解,这个可以等这一季度各家业绩会的时候听到具体的指引。通胀带来的成本上升不可避免,或者可能比想象的严重。另一方面,就存储这块需求不振,DRAM的价格在去年Q3见顶后一直处于跌势。显卡价格在涨了一年半之后也在跌,甚至市场预计会继续崩盘,据说是受到币挖矿的影响。</p> <p>半导体过去一直是高beta 强周期的代表,在周期见顶明显的时候可能股价之前的溢价会被杀的更狠。我注意到SMH这两天的期权异动都来自PUT,股价并没有大涨,却被连续追PUT,可能是在做半导体公司的财报吧。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7af07c7608850dda5f8eb23f0b8fcae\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\">还想说的AMD图形破位了。我曾在两周前做过AMD的SELLPUT,还好没有被行权,要不现在就亏了。复盘来看,当时确实已经注意到基本面的变化,但是没有思考到市场在这个时候杀估值会跟涨的时候给溢价一样狠。一个长期趋势线跌破,我暂时不会做单方面的SELL PUT。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25a4ddcf1a15736bbeb26d77031c85f\" tg-width=\"2196\" tg-height=\"1548\">另外AMD的财报是5月3日,这两天有大量的跨式组合期权成交,都是行权价$95的,这个跨式我非常有兴趣参与,不看多也不看跌,高beta股票做波动率。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971d22d35849e3f8e9ff080b1ae54e21\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 比AMD强势,也在关键支撑上面了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e1eff8c213ae7af21158dbbc2ccccf2\" tg-width=\"2162\" tg-height=\"1504\">但期权异动看赌NVDA反弹的人要多于看跌的,但是也是组合期权更多,说明财报在即,大家都不太想押注单方向。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51cf8a6434a3fba518e5215d41004032\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 期权大单看到很多很多call,并且以价外的居多。但是图形上跌破了一个非常长期的区间,这个可能会是半导体率先见底的公司?但是我目前不会买入看涨,还是要等图形回归。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013c3c6081badef2c10f117884af7ae0\" tg-width=\"2128\" tg-height=\"1548\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7262cbfbfe70ea4abb14c6f7052f0e1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\"></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>大家应该都发现这两波的下跌半导体都是领跌,作为Beta的代表,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$</a> 半导体指数ETF这轮反弹至反弹到第一个阻力就倒头了,现在已经跌破了3月的低点,但纳斯达克较3月低点还有5%左右的空间。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c54cf04cf0d39a71a935c4eab5fb0e70\" tg-width=\"2202\" tg-height=\"1328\">如果SMH继续下跌,看看它的主要成分股:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> 等可能还会不同程度继续下跌。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77579c498729eacb22f1ea65d632e2d0\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\">我细查了行业发生了什么?目前芯片的需求紧缺仍然是存在,很多消息说今年下半年这种缺货状态会有缓解,这个可以等这一季度各家业绩会的时候听到具体的指引。通胀带来的成本上升不可避免,或者可能比想象的严重。另一方面,就存储这块需求不振,DRAM的价格在去年Q3见顶后一直处于跌势。显卡价格在涨了一年半之后也在跌,甚至市场预计会继续崩盘,据说是受到币挖矿的影响。</p> <p>半导体过去一直是高beta 强周期的代表,在周期见顶明显的时候可能股价之前的溢价会被杀的更狠。我注意到SMH这两天的期权异动都来自PUT,股价并没有大涨,却被连续追PUT,可能是在做半导体公司的财报吧。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7af07c7608850dda5f8eb23f0b8fcae\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\">还想说的AMD图形破位了。我曾在两周前做过AMD的SELLPUT,还好没有被行权,要不现在就亏了。复盘来看,当时确实已经注意到基本面的变化,但是没有思考到市场在这个时候杀估值会跟涨的时候给溢价一样狠。一个长期趋势线跌破,我暂时不会做单方面的SELL PUT。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25a4ddcf1a15736bbeb26d77031c85f\" tg-width=\"2196\" tg-height=\"1548\">另外AMD的财报是5月3日,这两天有大量的跨式组合期权成交,都是行权价$95的,这个跨式我非常有兴趣参与,不看多也不看跌,高beta股票做波动率。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971d22d35849e3f8e9ff080b1ae54e21\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 比AMD强势,也在关键支撑上面了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e1eff8c213ae7af21158dbbc2ccccf2\" tg-width=\"2162\" tg-height=\"1504\">但期权异动看赌NVDA反弹的人要多于看跌的,但是也是组合期权更多,说明财报在即,大家都不太想押注单方向。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51cf8a6434a3fba518e5215d41004032\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 期权大单看到很多很多call,并且以价外的居多。但是图形上跌破了一个非常长期的区间,这个可能会是半导体率先见底的公司?但是我目前不会买入看涨,还是要等图形回归。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013c3c6081badef2c10f117884af7ae0\" tg-width=\"2128\" tg-height=\"1548\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7262cbfbfe70ea4abb14c6f7052f0e1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2532\"></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p></body></html>","text":"大家应该都发现这两波的下跌半导体都是领跌,作为Beta的代表,$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$ 半导体指数ETF这轮反弹至反弹到第一个阻力就倒头了,现在已经跌破了3月的低点,但纳斯达克较3月低点还有5%左右的空间。如果SMH继续下跌,看看它的主要成分股:$英伟达(NVDA)$ 、$台积电(TSM)$ 、$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 、$AMD(AMD)$ 和$美光科技(MU)$ 等可能还会不同程度继续下跌。我细查了行业发生了什么?目前芯片的需求紧缺仍然是存在,很多消息说今年下半年这种缺货状态会有缓解,这个可以等这一季度各家业绩会的时候听到具体的指引。通胀带来的成本上升不可避免,或者可能比想象的严重。另一方面,就存储这块需求不振,DRAM的价格在去年Q3见顶后一直处于跌势。显卡价格在涨了一年半之后也在跌,甚至市场预计会继续崩盘,据说是受到币挖矿的影响。 半导体过去一直是高beta 强周期的代表,在周期见顶明显的时候可能股价之前的溢价会被杀的更狠。我注意到SMH这两天的期权异动都来自PUT,股价并没有大涨,却被连续追PUT,可能是在做半导体公司的财报吧。还想说的AMD图形破位了。我曾在两周前做过AMD的SELLPUT,还好没有被行权,要不现在就亏了。复盘来看,当时确实已经注意到基本面的变化,但是没有思考到市场在这个时候杀估值会跟涨的时候给溢价一样狠。一个长期趋势线跌破,我暂时不会做单方面的SELL PUT。另外AMD的财报是5月3日,这两天有大量的跨式组合期权成交,都是行权价$95的,这个跨式我非常有兴趣参与,不看多也不看跌,高beta股票做波动率。$英伟达(NVDA)$ 比AMD强势,也在关键支撑上面了。但期权异动看赌NVDA反弹的人要多于看跌的,但是也是组合期权更多,说明财报在即,大家都不太想押注单方向。$台积电(TSM)$ 期权大单看到很多很多call,并且以价外的居多。但是图形上跌破了一个非常长期的区间,这个可能会是半导体率先见底的公司?但是我目前不会买入看涨,还是要等图形回归。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611143510","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","SMH","TSM","ASML","AMD","MU"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1493,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":822,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/618432354"}
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