磐石22
2022-06-04
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"Goldman Is Wrong": Lithium Miners Brush off Share Price Rout
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And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.</p><p>“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?</p><p>“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”</p><p>In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.</p><p>Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.</p><p>“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.</p><p>Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.</p><p>He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.</p><p>The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.</p><p>“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.</p><p>Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.</p><p>However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.</p><p>Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.</p><p>Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.</p><p>“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”</p><p>Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1647818771712","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Goldman Is Wrong\": Lithium Miners Brush off Share Price Rout\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-02 13:53 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj><strong>Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The incoming chief executive of lithium major Pilbara Minerals has shrugged off a handful of bearish broker notes on the hot sector, labelling it a “bold” move to call the peak for battery metals ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLS.AU":"PILBARA MINERALS LTD","IGO.AU":"IGO LTD"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184850825","content_text":"The incoming chief executive of lithium major Pilbara Minerals has shrugged off a handful of bearish broker notes on the hot sector, labelling it a “bold” move to call the peak for battery metals given ongoing strong demand for electric vehicles and the time it takes to bring on new supply.On the weekend, Goldman Sachs’s UK-based analysts warned the battery metals bull market was “over for now”, while Credit Suisse’s Australian team told clients lithium prices may peak in the “next few months” as markets price in a balancing of supply and demand in coming years.It followed reports that Argentina’s plan to set a reference price for lithium carbonate exports and that Chinese EV manufacturer BYD was in talks to buy six African lithium mines that could supply it raw material for a decade.The collision of negative headlines sparked ashare price rout among Australian listed lithium playersincluding Pilbara, IGO, Liontown Resources, Allkem and Mineral Resources on Wednesday, with Pilbara suffering one of the biggest declines of 18 per cent.By early afternoon on Thursday, share prices were about flat or recovered some of the losses.Dale Henderson, who Pilbara late on Wednesday revealed would replace Ken Brinsden as CEO on July 30, said he was surprised by the share moves given the lack of changes in spot lithium prices, but it seemed the broker notes had “startled the horses”.“It’s a fairly bold call to say the peak has occurred, and the downhill trend will start within this calendar year,” he toldThe Australian Financial Review.Mr Henderson said the near term outlook remained “very positive”, noting the company last weeksecured a record price for a cargo of spodumenesold via its auction platform.“That was only a week ago and there were groups clamouring for that product, so we see that strong demand. And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/617640927"}
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