小雄zZZ
2022-05-27
美联储的发言基本上属于预期,导致美股反弹。
希望能和3月中下旬一样,来一波反弹,吃一口,谢谢了各位美联储的大爷们。[比心]
@话题虎:
美联储重磅信号,市场先涨为敬!加息终点出现了?
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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虎大哥小哥
2022-05-29
虎大哥小哥
[微笑]
踏浪擒牛
2022-05-29
踏浪擒牛
阅
Alfista
2022-05-29
Alfista
阅
Fight_123
2022-05-29
Fight_123
真的吗
小边546262
2022-05-29
小边546262
不错
大李546262
2022-05-29
大李546262
可以
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style=\"color:rgba(245,166,35,1);\">但是,细品之下,这份看似平平无奇的纪要,竟也能咂摸出一点“鸽派”的味道。</span></b></p> <p>首先比较明显的一点,是纪要中有一句话:</p> <blockquote>\n 当前,与会者判定,关键是要迅速地转向更中性(more neutral)的货币政策立场。他们还指出,鉴于正在变化的经济前景及前景的风险,限制性的(restrictive)政策立场可能变得适合 \n</blockquote> <p>花旗全球市场的董事总经理Eric Merlis表示,这说明联储承认情况可能变化,他们不会轻率地一条道走下去。</p> <p>换句话说,如果通胀能在美联储的激进加息下受到控制,那就不用再承受经济衰退的风险继续紧缩。</p> <p>其次,也是最关键的,美联储调整了个人消费支出(PCE)通胀预期:</p> <blockquote>\n 今年的总体PCE价格通胀率预期为4.3%,随着总需求放缓、供需失衡的现象缓解,明年、2023年的PCE价格通胀料将回落到2.5%,2024年降至2.1%。 \n</blockquote> <p>有分析认为,这次调整揭示了美联储何时结束加息的信号。Cignarell估计,如果上述PCE预期准确,这就暗示着,只要再来三次50个基点的加息行动,美联储就会结束当前的货币紧缩周期。</p> <p>原本低开的美股,在纪要发布后,涨幅明显扩大,截至收盘,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 涨0.6%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 收涨0.95%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 收涨1.51%。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8ac8e36012489fe8b1ea9294fdbf75\" tg-width=\"200\" 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其次,也是最关键的,美联储调整了个人消费支出(PCE)通胀预期: 今年的总体PCE价格通胀率预期为4.3%,随着总需求放缓、供需失衡的现象缓解,明年、2023年的PCE价格通胀料将回落到2.5%,2024年降至2.1%。 有分析认为,这次调整揭示了美联储何时结束加息的信号。Cignarell估计,如果上述PCE预期准确,这就暗示着,只要再来三次50个基点的加息行动,美联储就会结束当前的货币紧缩周期。 原本低开的美股,在纪要发布后,涨幅明显扩大,截至收盘,$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 涨0.6%,$标普500(.SPX)$ 收涨0.95%,$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 收涨1.51%。目前,根据纪要基本可知,6月、7月每次均加息50个基点。然而市场对9月加息的几率却发生了较大改变,从原本的80%降至不足40%。摩根大通策略师认为,9月可能是美联储转向的关键时点。 问问虎友们: 你对本次美联储的会议纪要有什么看法? 你觉得美联储什么时候会“投降”并且暂停加息呢? 你认为美联储会在9月份服软吗? 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