鸡蛋炒韭黄
2022-04-21
国内要降息放水
5月加息50基点?今晚,全市场都盯着鲍威尔讲话
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耒子文
2022-04-21
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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62dafa537afba542bdc43da1b85df8b4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3657600","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1132535689","content_text":"作者:赵颖在美联储5月FOMC会议前的最后一次亮相,美联储主席鲍威尔可能会继续强化加息50个基点的预期。北京时间4月22日上午1:00,美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长拉加德、英国央行行长贝利和其他政策制定者将参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论并发表讲话。此前,鲍威尔就曾表态,如果未来一次或多次会议认为有必要加息超过25个基点,美联储就将实施这一方案,暗示支持5月加息50个基点,缩表最早将于5月FOMC会后宣布。他指出,加息和缩表这套组合拳代表“美联储的政策立场已转为大幅收紧”,一切目的都是为了压低通胀。美联储官员纷纷“放鹰”美联储多位官员发表鹰派讲话,强化加息50个基点的预期。3月份的会议纪要显示,许多人赞成在3月将利率提高50个基点,但由于俄乌冲突的不确定性,最终选择了更为谨慎的加息25个基点。会议纪要还显示,官员们预计将开始每月将资产负债表缩减950亿美元,一年超过1万亿美元,并可能在5月份正式宣布这一决定。最近,美联储官员频频放鹰,美联储未来“二把手”布雷纳德在4月13日指出,市场定价表明,美联储将“迅速”采取行动,将今年的利率提高到既不会刺激经济也不会放缓经济的水平。这意味着美联储会将政策利率从目前的0.25%-0.5%提高到2.4%的中性水平,至少还要再收紧200个基点。此外,缩表最早将于6月开始。同一天,美联储理事Waller表示,通货膨胀数据很高,但并不令人意外,预计通胀率已达峰值。同时,他再次重申支持下个月加息50个基点。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯也曾表示,5月份加息半个百分点是一个“非常合理的选择”。圣路易斯联储主席、“鹰王”布拉德更是不吝啬对大幅加息的鼓吹,他表示不排除一次加息75个基点的可能。本周二,亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克强调了迅速将利率降至中性水平的重要性。5月加息50个基点概率高达93.2%根据CME美联储观察最新数据显示,5月份加息50个基点的可能性高达为93.2%,一个月之前仅为43.9%,加息25个基点的概率为6.8%。彭博社经济学家预测称,美联储在2022年剩余的每次会议上都会加息,但预计只会有一次幅度为50个基点的加息,很可能就在5月。“我认为鲍威尔会很鹰派,他将强调多次加息,以及缩表。”富国银行利率策略主管Michael 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