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2021-11-30
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Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":609693017,"tweetId":"609693017","gmtCreate":1638274666263,"gmtModify":1638274666521,"author":{"id":3572916667219493,"idStr":"3572916667219493","authorId":3572916667219493,"authorIdStr":"3572916667219493","name":"Zarkness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8c61830c4883c4232aece921d89d14","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":54,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Yes</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Yes</p></body></html>","text":"Yes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609693017","repostId":1183198352,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198352","pubTimestamp":1638274451,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183198352?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 20:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198352","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.\nThe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>AAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.</li>\n <li>The company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.</li>\n <li>The stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eee640d38ca964a8a25d978d1f858293\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership <b>Apple</b>(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.</p>\n<p>Apple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,<i>Timely Trader</i>, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a005c1e28b33227395e295eb4d3ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"812\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.</p>\n<p>The stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.</p>\n<p>In short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.</p>\n<p>Now, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.</p>\n<p><b>Ignore the noise, Apple is still dominant</b></p>\n<p>Apple's Q4 earnings showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.</p>\n<p>There is evidence to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and China showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?</p>\n<p>Now, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4ee0e69bc003794d9ef8a801403a88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>We can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.</p>\n<p>Now, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are <i>flying</i>, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbaba8826e257af5666c27d29b2f18cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Revenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.</p>\n<p>Below we have TTM gross margins and SG&A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4bc2b49806742ed776ba5e76577543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>SG&A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.</p>\n<p>Switching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02926f966d571a5d9af3865b5534bd75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>We can see the share count is<i>36% lower</i>than it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.</p>\n<p>We therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b562a3b59264989d5077b069db4633ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation reset creates a buying chance</b></p>\n<p>Now, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3375c0e3b0081634279d2f828195612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Given the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.</p>\n<p>I'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-30 20:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.\nThe company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198352","content_text":"Summary\n\nAAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.\nThe company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.\nThe stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.\n\nAleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership Apple(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.\nApple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,Timely Trader, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.\n\nWe'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.\nThe stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.\nIn short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.\nNow, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.\nIgnore the noise, Apple is still dominant\nApple's Q4 earnings showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.\nThere is evidence to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and China showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.\nKeep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?\nNow, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.\nNow, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are flying, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.\nSource: TIKR.com\nRevenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.\nBelow we have TTM gross margins and SG&A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.\nSource: TIKR.com\nSG&A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.\nThe bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.\nSwitching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the share count is36% lowerthan it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.\nWe therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThis is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.\nValuation reset creates a buying chance\nNow, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?\nSource: TIKR.com\nGiven the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.\nI'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609693017"}
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