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2021-12-10
So 7%
What to Watch Out For in the Inflation Numbers
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":605376625,"tweetId":"605376625","gmtCreate":1639123301077,"gmtModify":1639123301752,"author":{"id":3579088083036701,"idStr":"3579088083036701","authorId":3579088083036701,"authorIdStr":"3579088083036701","name":"7bd61add","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>So 7%</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>So 7%</p></body></html>","text":"So 7%","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605376625","repostId":1139831281,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139831281","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639121338,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139831281?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 15:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Watch Out For in the Inflation Numbers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139831281","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"For the first time in a long while, they’re coming out on a Friday. And they’ll matter a lot more th","content":"<p>For the first time in a long while, they’re coming out on a Friday. And they’ll matter a lot more than payrolls.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c00a863d083ec338ea2add1af36990e\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Roll Over Non-Farm Payrolls (and Tell Tchaikovsky the News)</b></p>\n<p>The rhythms of markets are disconcertingly fixed and settled. For years now, the monthly “Payrolls Friday” has been part of my life. Payrolls data is often flawed and subject to huge revisions, but it’s an accepted ritual that it really, really matters. Traders are ready and poised at 8:30 on a Friday morning waiting for the numbers that will determine a messy final day’s trading for the week.</p>\n<p>We are about to witness a change to the established order. Unemployment has mattered more than inflation for at least a generation. Price rises have been broadly under control and much less has hung on each announcement. And in any case, there’s less of a ritual around the CPI numbers. They come out on different days of the week, often clashing with earnings announcements and other big market events. It just doesn’t have the same place in the firmament.</p>\n<p>But this month, for the first time in ages, inflation numbers are coming out on a Friday. And in another change to the established order, they matter a lot more than the unemployment numbers. Inflation is back, and nobody knows how long it’s going to stay. There is also the chance of a big round number, as some estimates put the headline rate of inflation above 7%. That’s unheard of since 1984.</p>\n<p>The consensus estimate is a tad lower, but it’s a fair bet that the initial reaction will be binary, just as the first response on unemployment data day is usually driven by whether the change in non-farm payrolls is above or below expectations. If it’s above 7%, there will be an instant risk-off move, while anything below it will probably spark relief.</p>\n<p>But that’s only for the very short term. After the first seconds of seeing the headline number, we’ll all have an immense amount of data to digest, which can be sliced and diced more or less any way you like. The numbers, coming ahead of a raft of central bank meetings next week, could have profound effects. This month, CPI Friday really should be a much bigger deal than NFP Friday.</p>\n<p>Here are a few points to help get ready:</p>\n<p><b>The Labor Market Gives No Reason for Emergency Measures</b></p>\n<p>Inflation is so important for gauging central banks’ reaction because there is now literally no reason at all to maintain emergency monetary measures for the sake of the labor market. This week’s figures on initial claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. showed the fewest people signing on in more than 50 years. Adding in continued claims, the numbers on unemployment insurance are almost down to their level immediately before the pandemic. You have to go back to 1973 for the last time claims were lower than that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e2b8046480f2bc043a5dbd6fa8e638\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, data on job openings, known as JOLTS, show more vacancies than at any time since the survey started 20 years ago. Companies seem to be having little success filling them, implying much greater negotiating strength for workers in wage bargaining:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e5eb3bea0bf21f5913394dd91842f0\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>On that subject, the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, based on census data, shows the fastest overall wage growth since 2007. But it’s lower than core consumer price inflation, so workers have an incentive to push for more:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9444eea2896b80cd322178e442f38921\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the details from the wage tracker report suggest that historic changes are afoot in the labor market, with the youngest and lowest paid finally having the leverage to secure higher “compensation” while the best paidand over-55s are getting a worse deal than usual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21b717fb57cd9596864424c1dc5c07ad\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19f0eb1e3d04479c7560d6452deb027\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In short, the labor market suggests that the Fed should be reducing stimulus. Higher inflation would ram that home.</p>\n<p><b>From Now On, Base Effects Should Be Our Friends</b></p>\n<p>If inflation does top 7%, remember that that figurereally could be transitory. The high headline numbers at present are driven partly by low base effects from 12 months ago, and the odds are heavily skewed toward those effects soon starting to turn positive. To cite the most important example, this is what has happened to year-on-year gasoline inflation over the last 16 years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43481748b9f92ff5a6414eec5fd97d6b\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Gasoline prices are not going to keep increasing at more than 50% per annum. As the chart shows, the chances are that before long, they’ll be decreasing year-on-year and helping to lower headline inflation.</p>\n<p>Looking at commodity prices more generally, they tend to drive producer price inflation, for obvious reasons. And the broad-based Bloomberg Commodity Index has been declining of late:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32bc3bc1f7bdbcaf9df114fe9adeb10\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>None of this means that inflation will zoom back down to 2% in short order. But it does imply that the headline numbers are very likely to fall a bit before they rise. There’s currently little reason to expect sustained inflation of more than 7%.</p>\n<p><b>Peak Bottleneck Is Here, Perhaps</b></p>\n<p>Another critical driver of this inflation spike has of course been the global interruption to supply chains. Bottlenecks have driven prices far higher by constricting supply. Restrictions to global transport remain extreme, but they seem to be peaking. In the following heat map, Moody’s Investors Service handily collated a number of measures of shipping rates. Most at least seem to have started to decline a little from the peak:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22919eb213adb8d4723178130e2cc17\" tg-width=\"2172\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Conducting a similar exercise for global manufacturing and trade activity is also a little reassuring. U.S. manufacturers as a whole are in expansion mode, and railroad volumes are improving. However, semiconductor shipments have yet to show sustained improvement, and car production in the U.S. and Germany has been slowed as a result:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c366469943d74b4973492509674d12c\" tg-width=\"2136\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The semiconductor shortage made itself felt most in the motor industry at first, but as this chart from Gavekal Research shows, it appears to have moved on to smartphones. Smartphone sales are running slightly below their level a year ago:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ff2bafedd90fcbb4457fa2b511f1cf\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>None of this is reason to relax. There is still a serious supply chain problem across the world, and a new Covid variant might yet bring it back in full force. But it does look reasonable to say that this is about as bad as it will get, and that the worst might already be behind us. It’s certainly reasonable to expect that bottleneck resolution should be a downward pressure on inflation next year, just as they drove inflation upward in 2021.</p>\n<p>So, a 7% inflation print would not be the end of the world, nor would it last forever. Bear that in mind at 8:30 a.m., New York time.</p>\n<p><b>Exciting Times for Actuaries</b></p>\n<p>The last two years have sent the actuarial profession rushing back in time. The industry had its birth in the Victorian era, to offer help dealing with the pressing risk that you might die too soon. Over the decades, medical progress helped make that risk easier and cheaper to protect against. But increasing longevity led to a new and even more difficult problem — the risk of living too long. For at least the last generation, actuaries have been preoccupied with the intractable task of guaranteeing a growing and aging population an income in retirement. The steady fall in bond yields has made this much harder by raising the price of buying a fixed income.</p>\n<p>2020 and 2021 have changed the pattern. The American Council of Life Insurers has published its annual survey of the total death benefit payments paid out by life insurers last year. The rise was the greatest in more than a century — although still far below the horrific increase in 1918, year of the Spanish Flu pandemic:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d02f5264c0e5e00ae991d49bb9985a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This does help confirm that the Covid pandemic did have real and tangible effect on public health, something that some people still doubt.</p>\n<p>If the job of insuring lives grew a little harder, the job of assuring a pension grew easier. Rising share prices, making assets greater, combined with a rise in bond yields (making liabilities cheaper) to improve their funding position dramatically. Mercer, the actuarial group, published monthly estimates of the pension deficits of companies in the S&P 500 which offer defined benefit plans.</p>\n<p>The numbers involved are huge.Mercer estimates that the aggregate value of pension plan assets of the S&P 1500 companies as of Oct. 31 was $2.32 trillion, compared with estimated aggregate liabilities of $2.44 trillion. Corporate pensions’ assets are now enough to cover 94% of their liabilities; an uncomfortable position, but a great relief after their funding status had dropped below 70% in the aftermath of the financial crisis:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0812dd33e90114fe505751c5bc0dfe9d\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"775\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pension fund actuaries are also among the small but important group of people who would welcome higher bond yields. Amid difficult times, it’s encouraging that the looming pension crisis might yet resolve itself naturally.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Watch Out For in the Inflation Numbers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Watch Out For in the Inflation Numbers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-10 15:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/inflation-numbers-grab-spotlight-from-payrolls-in-biggest-shift-in-decades?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For the first time in a long while, they’re coming out on a Friday. And they’ll matter a lot more than payrolls.\n\nRoll Over Non-Farm Payrolls (and Tell Tchaikovsky the News)\nThe rhythms of markets are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/inflation-numbers-grab-spotlight-from-payrolls-in-biggest-shift-in-decades?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/inflation-numbers-grab-spotlight-from-payrolls-in-biggest-shift-in-decades?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139831281","content_text":"For the first time in a long while, they’re coming out on a Friday. And they’ll matter a lot more than payrolls.\n\nRoll Over Non-Farm Payrolls (and Tell Tchaikovsky the News)\nThe rhythms of markets are disconcertingly fixed and settled. For years now, the monthly “Payrolls Friday” has been part of my life. Payrolls data is often flawed and subject to huge revisions, but it’s an accepted ritual that it really, really matters. Traders are ready and poised at 8:30 on a Friday morning waiting for the numbers that will determine a messy final day’s trading for the week.\nWe are about to witness a change to the established order. Unemployment has mattered more than inflation for at least a generation. Price rises have been broadly under control and much less has hung on each announcement. And in any case, there’s less of a ritual around the CPI numbers. They come out on different days of the week, often clashing with earnings announcements and other big market events. It just doesn’t have the same place in the firmament.\nBut this month, for the first time in ages, inflation numbers are coming out on a Friday. And in another change to the established order, they matter a lot more than the unemployment numbers. Inflation is back, and nobody knows how long it’s going to stay. There is also the chance of a big round number, as some estimates put the headline rate of inflation above 7%. That’s unheard of since 1984.\nThe consensus estimate is a tad lower, but it’s a fair bet that the initial reaction will be binary, just as the first response on unemployment data day is usually driven by whether the change in non-farm payrolls is above or below expectations. If it’s above 7%, there will be an instant risk-off move, while anything below it will probably spark relief.\nBut that’s only for the very short term. After the first seconds of seeing the headline number, we’ll all have an immense amount of data to digest, which can be sliced and diced more or less any way you like. The numbers, coming ahead of a raft of central bank meetings next week, could have profound effects. This month, CPI Friday really should be a much bigger deal than NFP Friday.\nHere are a few points to help get ready:\nThe Labor Market Gives No Reason for Emergency Measures\nInflation is so important for gauging central banks’ reaction because there is now literally no reason at all to maintain emergency monetary measures for the sake of the labor market. This week’s figures on initial claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. showed the fewest people signing on in more than 50 years. Adding in continued claims, the numbers on unemployment insurance are almost down to their level immediately before the pandemic. You have to go back to 1973 for the last time claims were lower than that:\n\nMeanwhile, data on job openings, known as JOLTS, show more vacancies than at any time since the survey started 20 years ago. Companies seem to be having little success filling them, implying much greater negotiating strength for workers in wage bargaining:\n\nOn that subject, the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, based on census data, shows the fastest overall wage growth since 2007. But it’s lower than core consumer price inflation, so workers have an incentive to push for more:\n\nMeanwhile, the details from the wage tracker report suggest that historic changes are afoot in the labor market, with the youngest and lowest paid finally having the leverage to secure higher “compensation” while the best paidand over-55s are getting a worse deal than usual.\n\nIn short, the labor market suggests that the Fed should be reducing stimulus. Higher inflation would ram that home.\nFrom Now On, Base Effects Should Be Our Friends\nIf inflation does top 7%, remember that that figurereally could be transitory. The high headline numbers at present are driven partly by low base effects from 12 months ago, and the odds are heavily skewed toward those effects soon starting to turn positive. To cite the most important example, this is what has happened to year-on-year gasoline inflation over the last 16 years:\n\nGasoline prices are not going to keep increasing at more than 50% per annum. As the chart shows, the chances are that before long, they’ll be decreasing year-on-year and helping to lower headline inflation.\nLooking at commodity prices more generally, they tend to drive producer price inflation, for obvious reasons. And the broad-based Bloomberg Commodity Index has been declining of late:\n\nNone of this means that inflation will zoom back down to 2% in short order. But it does imply that the headline numbers are very likely to fall a bit before they rise. There’s currently little reason to expect sustained inflation of more than 7%.\nPeak Bottleneck Is Here, Perhaps\nAnother critical driver of this inflation spike has of course been the global interruption to supply chains. Bottlenecks have driven prices far higher by constricting supply. Restrictions to global transport remain extreme, but they seem to be peaking. In the following heat map, Moody’s Investors Service handily collated a number of measures of shipping rates. Most at least seem to have started to decline a little from the peak:\n\nConducting a similar exercise for global manufacturing and trade activity is also a little reassuring. U.S. manufacturers as a whole are in expansion mode, and railroad volumes are improving. However, semiconductor shipments have yet to show sustained improvement, and car production in the U.S. and Germany has been slowed as a result:\n\nThe semiconductor shortage made itself felt most in the motor industry at first, but as this chart from Gavekal Research shows, it appears to have moved on to smartphones. Smartphone sales are running slightly below their level a year ago:\n\nNone of this is reason to relax. There is still a serious supply chain problem across the world, and a new Covid variant might yet bring it back in full force. But it does look reasonable to say that this is about as bad as it will get, and that the worst might already be behind us. It’s certainly reasonable to expect that bottleneck resolution should be a downward pressure on inflation next year, just as they drove inflation upward in 2021.\nSo, a 7% inflation print would not be the end of the world, nor would it last forever. Bear that in mind at 8:30 a.m., New York time.\nExciting Times for Actuaries\nThe last two years have sent the actuarial profession rushing back in time. The industry had its birth in the Victorian era, to offer help dealing with the pressing risk that you might die too soon. Over the decades, medical progress helped make that risk easier and cheaper to protect against. But increasing longevity led to a new and even more difficult problem — the risk of living too long. For at least the last generation, actuaries have been preoccupied with the intractable task of guaranteeing a growing and aging population an income in retirement. The steady fall in bond yields has made this much harder by raising the price of buying a fixed income.\n2020 and 2021 have changed the pattern. The American Council of Life Insurers has published its annual survey of the total death benefit payments paid out by life insurers last year. The rise was the greatest in more than a century — although still far below the horrific increase in 1918, year of the Spanish Flu pandemic:\n\nThis does help confirm that the Covid pandemic did have real and tangible effect on public health, something that some people still doubt.\nIf the job of insuring lives grew a little harder, the job of assuring a pension grew easier. Rising share prices, making assets greater, combined with a rise in bond yields (making liabilities cheaper) to improve their funding position dramatically. Mercer, the actuarial group, published monthly estimates of the pension deficits of companies in the S&P 500 which offer defined benefit plans.\nThe numbers involved are huge.Mercer estimates that the aggregate value of pension plan assets of the S&P 1500 companies as of Oct. 31 was $2.32 trillion, compared with estimated aggregate liabilities of $2.44 trillion. Corporate pensions’ assets are now enough to cover 94% of their liabilities; an uncomfortable position, but a great relief after their funding status had dropped below 70% in the aftermath of the financial crisis:\n\nPension fund actuaries are also among the small but important group of people who would welcome higher bond yields. Amid difficult times, it’s encouraging that the looming pension crisis might yet resolve itself naturally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605376625"}
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