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2021-12-01

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A bit excessive? Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs

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Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188552948","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery o","content":"<p>Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery of the new, perhaps more contagious variant of coronavirus.</p>\n<p>But the oil market has priced in a far steeper reduction to air travel. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the market has priced in what they say is a mammoth 7 million barrels of oil a day reduction in demand over the next three months, with no offsetting response in production from the OPEC+ oil cartel.</p>\n<p>That's the equivalent, say analysts led by Damien Courvalin, of \"not a single plane flying around the world for three months.\" It's also equivalent to a lockdown half as intense as the second quarter of 2020, shortly after the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 first started affecting countries outside of China.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, these analysts view the reaction as excessive. Their view is that a new variant, combined with the global release of reserves, represents only a $5 per barrel downside to its $85 forecast for the next few months.</p>\n<p>\"In fact, there's still potential for offsetting bullish developments via the lack of progress in Iranian negotiations (where we had expected a supply ramp up beginning in 2Q22). OPEC+ freezing its production hike for one month when it meets on Thursday as well as the current ramp-up in gas-to-oil substitution could in fact offset nearly half of the combined negative hits of this new COVID variant and SPR releases in the base scenario,\" they said.</p>\n<p>Crude futures rallied nearly $3 per barrel on Wednesday morning but still were trading below $70, after trading as high as $84.97 earlier in the month.</p>\n<p>Natural-gas futures , by contrast, fell 4%.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A bit excessive? Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA bit excessive? Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 19:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bit-excessive-oil-traders-have-priced-in-a-three-month-halt-to-global-air-travel-says-goldman-sachs-11638352176?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery of the new, perhaps more contagious variant of coronavirus.\nBut the oil market has priced in a far ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bit-excessive-oil-traders-have-priced-in-a-three-month-halt-to-global-air-travel-says-goldman-sachs-11638352176?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bit-excessive-oil-traders-have-priced-in-a-three-month-halt-to-global-air-travel-says-goldman-sachs-11638352176?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188552948","content_text":"Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery of the new, perhaps more contagious variant of coronavirus.\nBut the oil market has priced in a far steeper reduction to air travel. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the market has priced in what they say is a mammoth 7 million barrels of oil a day reduction in demand over the next three months, with no offsetting response in production from the OPEC+ oil cartel.\nThat's the equivalent, say analysts led by Damien Courvalin, of \"not a single plane flying around the world for three months.\" It's also equivalent to a lockdown half as intense as the second quarter of 2020, shortly after the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 first started affecting countries outside of China.\nNot surprisingly, these analysts view the reaction as excessive. Their view is that a new variant, combined with the global release of reserves, represents only a $5 per barrel downside to its $85 forecast for the next few months.\n\"In fact, there's still potential for offsetting bullish developments via the lack of progress in Iranian negotiations (where we had expected a supply ramp up beginning in 2Q22). OPEC+ freezing its production hike for one month when it meets on Thursday as well as the current ramp-up in gas-to-oil substitution could in fact offset nearly half of the combined negative hits of this new COVID variant and SPR releases in the base scenario,\" they said.\nCrude futures rallied nearly $3 per barrel on Wednesday morning but still were trading below $70, after trading as high as $84.97 earlier in the month.\nNatural-gas futures , by contrast, fell 4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603940570"}