WilMic
2021-12-01
Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better
Novavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":603086737,"tweetId":"603086737","gmtCreate":1638339480376,"gmtModify":1638339480444,"author":{"id":4090040387780440,"idStr":"4090040387780440","authorId":4090040387780440,"authorIdStr":"4090040387780440","name":"WilMic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df19ab56ab9c1603935c4992ab4cc86","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better </p></body></html>","text":"Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603086737","repostId":1143190844,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143190844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638338816,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143190844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 14:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143190844","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.\n","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Pfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.</li>\n <li>Pfizer recently filed for the Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 antiviral candidate, PAXLOVID, which is expected to bring in $24B in sales in FY22.</li>\n <li>Novavax obtained its regulatory approvals for NVX-CoV2373 in both Indonesia and the Philippines. The company can finally start fulfilling its $7B worth of purchase obligations.</li>\n <li>We discuss which stock is the better buy for investors now.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Pfizer (PFE) expects to sell2.3B of its vaccines in FY2021, representing up to 44.5% of total projected sales of $82B. In addition, the company guided Cominarty sales to account for $36B of revenue in FY2021 and $29B in FY2022. Pfizer also recently submitted itsCOVID-19 Antiviral Candidate, PAXLOVID, for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in the US. PAXLOVID achieved89% efficacy in its clinical trials in reducing the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death. As a result,SVB Leerinkestimates PAXLOVID to bring in $24B of sales for Pfizer in FY2022.</p>\n<p>Novavax (NVAX) has$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to fulfill by FY2022. Novavax has also finally obtained its regulatory approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines while awaiting approvals in many other countries. Though Novavax has yet to submit for US FDA approval, we believe its vaccine could have more potential within the lower-income countries.</p>\n<p>We discuss which stock is the better buy now.</p>\n<p>Omicron - The Variant Of Concern</p>\n<p>On 14 November 2021, a new variant of the COVID-19 virus, B.1.1.529,Omicron, was detected in Gauteng, South Africa. Scientists hypothesized that the Omicron could be an escape variant due to the doubling of mutations compared to the Delta variant. As the most predominant strain globally,CDC reported that the Delta variant caused more infections and spread faster than its early forms. Some scientists have indicated that the high number of mutations may be linked to its resistance to antibodies and possibly be more contagious. Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees.\" (BBC)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Furthermore, the new highly mutated virus is considerably different from those originally used to design the existing COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, there is a legitimate concern that Omicron may\"elude the targeted immune response\"by the current vaccines and be highly virulent. Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Britain's Warwick University, said,</p>\n<blockquote>\n This new variant of the COVID-19 virus is very worrying. It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. Some of the mutations that are similar to changes we've seen in other variants of concern are associated with enhanced transmissibility and with partial resistance to immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection.\" (CNA)\n</blockquote>\n<p>As a result of the discovery, countries have placed travel restrictions on those arriving from Africa. It includes the US, EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and many others. In addition, the stock market has also been affected, especially those in the travel and hospitality industry. Many expect that the Omicron may cause another surge in lockdowns and further delay the global recovery from the pandemic. It is worrying indeed since international travel lanes have just reopened in early November 2021.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless,Pfizer and BioNTechhave long prepared for the emergence of the supposed \"escape variant.\" \"Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) took actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days,\" the company said. In addition, Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AstraZeneca (AZN) have started their investigation on the efficacy of their vaccines against the new variant of concern. They expect to announce lab-based experimental results in two weeks.</p>\n<p><b>Pfizer is The Market Leader in COVID-19 Vaccines</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98f222e0c383e30a5c184acf70d6240\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Pfizer enjoyed immense growth in its revenue since the first distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020. In barely a year, Pfizer bulldozed its way into delivering2.11B doses of its COVID-19 vaccine. In doing so, the company has inoculated 13.3% of the world's population with two doses of Comirnaty.</p>\n<p>In FQ3'21, Pfizer recorded $24.1B in revenue, representing a 233.9% YoY growth compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. In the same quarter, Pfizer also reported growth in other segments. In FQ3'21, the Oncology and Hospital segments reported 31.4% and 24% growth from FQ3'19 sales, respectively. Furthermore, Eliquis (oral anticoagulant from Internal Medicine) and IBRANCE (breast cancer treatment from Oncology) generated $1.34B and $1.38 in sales. It represented a 31.3% and 7.6% increase from FQ3'19, respectively. The growth for Eliquiswas due to a 16% increase in prescription volume, while IBRANCE was driven by deferred diagnosis and treatment caused by the pandemic.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d00b01fc6db5a73811ce8f8d7e9de4f\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"521\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Revenue By Segment. Source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>Pfizer also expects additional revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine due to the US FDA approval of its pediatric application in ages five to eleven. As of 22 November 2021, the Canadian,Malaysian, and Singapore governments have already approved or procured Comirnaty for the pediatric age group. Many other countries globally are also considering Comirnatyfor its young children. As the market leader in the COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer will also report its clinical results for those aged two to five by Q4'21 and six months to two years old by Q1'22. Furthermore, booster shots have been approved by the USCDCandEU public health agency for all adults. It paves the way for a robust recurring revenue market for Pfizer.</p>\n<p>Pfizer aims to distribute2.3B doses of its vaccines by the end of 2021, accounting for$36B of revenue. Furthermore, in FQ3'21, Pfizerraised its guidance for FY2021's total revenue to $81B to $82B. The difference is mainly attributed to robust sales in Comirnaty. The raised guidance also reflects the international community's confidence in Pfizer's vaccine.</p>\n<p>But, consensus estimates expect Pfizer to post $81.3B in total revenue in FY2022, of which vaccine sales will account for $29B. The estimates suggest normalization in Comirnaty sales through FY2023, as COVID-19 becomes endemic.</p>\n<p>However, we expect additional upside to Pfizer's revenue attributed to its antiviral COVID-19 candidate and the possibility of Pfizer's adapted vaccine against the Omicron variant.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a45c8c8167dd4302253c667fb7074bc9\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>On 16 November 2021, Pfizer filed for EUA for PAXLOVID, its COVID-19 antiviral treatment. The treatment achieved 89% efficacy in clinical trials, which is better than Merck'sMolnupiravir at 30%. PAXLOVID's treatment is suitable for patients with mild to moderate symptoms, with a high risk of hospitalization or death. The US government also signed an Advanced Purchase Agreement(APA) for 10M doses, worth $529 per treatment course. The treatment may be delivered to the patients as early as Q4'21, upon FDA approval.SVB Leerinkestimated that PAXLOVID might account for an additional $24B in Pfizer's FY2022 revenue. Therefore, it could add further upside to Pfizer's vaccines revenue.</p>\n<p>Furthermore,Pfizer has licensed PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP), a United Nations-backed public health organization. It allows other generic drug manufacturers to produce the COVID-19 antiviral pill at lower prices. The reduced price will increase the pills' outreach to53% of the global population from 95 low- and middle-income countries.</p>\n<p>Thus far, Pfizer has demonstrated exemplary execution.The company has managed to clear its clinical trials and the US FDA regulatory processes/ approvals speedily. In addition, no other COVID-19 vaccine makers have come close to the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership regarding its COVID-19 vaccines revenue. Its success is attributed to decades-old expertise and existing infrastructure in the Pharmaceuticals industry, paired with BioNTech's brilliant mRNA technology.</p>\n<p>Moreover, Pfizer has a solid portfolio of therapeutics, including Eliquis, IBRANCE, and the Prevnar family (Pneumococcal vaccine). These 3 drugs have accounted for $16.3B in revenue in the last twelve months (LTM).</p>\n<p><b>Pfizer's Aggressive Product Pipeline</b></p>\n<p>Pfizer continues to expand with94 programs in development. Of these, nine are in the registration stage, with 38 programs in phase 2/3 clinical trials. Furthermore, there are six mRNA programs in collaboration with BioNTech for COVID-19 vaccines and one directly under Pfizer for its mRNA Influenza vaccine (phase 1).</p>\n<p>Pfizer has also acquired and collaborated with many companies in multiple specializations, such as oncology, gene therapy, and cardiovascular treatment, as part of its long-term expansion plan. These investments have resulted in three approvals and four Emergency Use Authorizations, with many more in research and development. Over the next 18 months, Pfizer also expectsten program approvals. In addition, since 2019, Pfizer has:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Acquired Array BioPharma, a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company specializing in Oncology</li>\n <li>Acquired Therachon, a pre-revenue biotechnology company with interests in Achondroplasia and Short Bowel Syndrome</li>\n <li>Acquired Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL), a pre-revenue immuno-oncology company specializing in Oncology</li>\n <li>Collaborated with Vivet Therapeutics for research on Wilson disease gene therapy</li>\n <li>Collaborated with Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (AKCA) for the treatment of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases</li>\n <li>Collaborated with Valneva SE (OTCPK:INRLF) for the development of Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15</li>\n <li>Collaborated with Myovant Sciences Ltd. (MYOV) for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer</li>\n <li>Collaborated with Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) to treat breast cancer and improve the efficacy of IBRANCE (Pfizer's approved breast cancer treatment) for metastatic settings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Pfizer'spipelineincludesmultiple research and developmentsuch as:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Vaccines, including Prevnar 20 (Pneumococcal) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)</li>\n <li>Oncology, including the breast, prostate, and blood cancer</li>\n <li>Rare Diseases, including gene therapies for hemophilia A/B and Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy</li>\n <li>Internal Medicine, including diabetes</li>\n <li>Immunology and Inflammation, including rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and vitiligo</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Based on its existing portfolio and pipeline, Pfizer guided future revenue growth at a CAGR of 6% through FY2025. The guidance does not include its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, or potential earnings from future mRNA programs. Nevertheless, it shows that Pfizer is confident in its future growth despite the normalization from the Cominarty sales. With an arsenal of profitable therapeutics and promising research and development, Pfizer looks fantastic as an anchor investment for a pharmaceutical investor.</p>\n<p><b>Novavax's Nascent Foray into The BioTech Sector</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee7b67ab7c5e746455428648918245c\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Emergency Use Authorisation Application. Source:Novavax</span></p>\n<p>Novavax has already obtained its EUA approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, in Indonesian 1 November 2021 and the Philippineson 17 November 2021. Furthermore, many other approvals are pending in the UK, Australia, Canada, Europe, WHO, India, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore. To prepare for the regulatory approval and potential rollout of its vaccines, Novavax has increased its manufacturing capacity in multiple territories, up to 150M vaccine doses a month. As a result, the company projected over2B doses to be distributed in FY2022. The established global supply chain for the production of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine includes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Serum Institute of India</li>\n <li>Novavax's site in the Czech Republic and Sweden</li>\n <li>SK Bioscience Co in South Korea</li>\n <li>Takeda Pharmaceutical Company in Japan</li>\n <li>Biofibre in Spain</li>\n <li>Fujifilm in the US and UK</li>\n <li>Mabion in Poland</li>\n <li>the National Research Council in Poland and Canada</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c9f5618ee41b46f9f2325c8a28c011\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Global Supply Chain. Source:Novavax</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34de59290b1dc616668e3a0fb2936290\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>In FQ3'21, Novavax reported$179M revenue. The number includes $98M from government contracts, $41M from CEPI grant revenue, and $40M from royalty revenue. The royalty revenue came from SK Biosciences' sales of NVX-CoV2373 antigen components to the government. Novavax is expected to report revenue of $1.4B for FY2021. The sales will include part of the$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to be shipped globally.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0b307cda2b15d1695dd4762af1c3a0\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Currently, Novavax has several COVID-19 clinical trials in progress globally. The US and Australian trial participants have received their booster shots at 6 and 12 months after the two-dose regimen. The company previously reported that the6 monthly boosters shot sufficiently increased the functional levels of wild-type neutralization and the IgG antibody. With such promising results, Novavax aims to complete its booster clinical trial for regulatory submissions as well.</p>\n<p>By the end of 2021, Novavax aims to complete its regulatory submission globally, especially to the US FDA and EMA. In addition, the company will also proceed with the dosage selection for its combinedNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373clinical trial (to be further discussed later).</p>\n<p>Novavax's Robust Pipeline In Influenza</p>\n<p>Beyond its COVID-19 vaccine, Novavax has eight other programs in development. There are three in Phase 2/3 clinical stage, which are ResVax, RSV F, and NanoFlu. Both ResVax and RSV F targets Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in different age groups. However, both have not passed the necessary clinical test. Therefore, they also do not have the required efficacy for EMA & FDA approval.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, NanoFlu has recorded top-line results for both clinical trialsagainstSanofi's approved flu vaccine Fluzone Quadrivalent. Sanofi is currently the largest manufacturer of influenza vaccines in the world. Notably, Sanofi supplied250 million doses of Influenza vaccines globally in 2020, worth$2.9B in sales. Therefore, Novavax may capitalize on a massive global Influenza market. As of early 2020, the US FDA has already granted NanoFlu a Fast Track Designation. In September 2021, Novavax also published the NanoFlu Influenza Vaccine Phase 3 Clinical Trial results. However, it remains to be seen when Novavax will file for US FDA approval and if it will be granted.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, in May 2021, Novavax announced the results of its combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373in a pre-clinical test. The combined vaccine is a potential breakthrough as an annual COVID-19 booster shot and Influenza vaccine. Phase III clinical (animal) trials have detected little virus or none in the upper and lower respiratory tracts. In September 2021, Novavax initiated the combined vaccine trial Phase I/II in Australia for 640 healthy adults aged 50 to 70 years. These participants had either been fully vaccinated or previously infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.</p>\n<p>In November 2021, Novavax published the full results of a combined vaccine trial involving NVX-CoV2373 and an approved influenza vaccine from Seqirus UK Limited. It proves that there are no safety issues while relatively preserving the immune responses from both vaccines. As a result, the combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373may have a massive impact as the alternative to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, combined with a highly effective Influenza shot.</p>\n<p>Compared to Pfizer's pipeline, Novavax's pipeline appear to have more concentrated applications and less diversified. However, we cannot discount that Novavax has only started to get its momentum going while Pfizer is already leading the herd. They are at entirely different scales and timeline altogether. We believe that NanoFlu has shown great potential in its clinical trials. Upon regulatory approval, NanoFlu could generate substantial revenue from the global Influenza vaccines market, which is expected to exceed$9.5B by 2027.</p>\n<p><b>So, Which Stock is The Better Buy?</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132d624d7587dac52e1a3f2a2458ac72\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer And Novavax EV/ Fwd Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Pfizer stock is currently trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.56x. It's significantly lower than its peers' comps set mean of 6.57x. Meanwhile, Novavax stock is trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.1x, considering the $7B purchase obligations. Furthermore, both are lower than Moderna stock at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 5.83x. As compared to Moderna and Pfizer stock, Novavax stock certainly looks like a huge bargain now.</p>\n<p>Novavax has already obtained its EUA approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines, with many more pending globally. Its stock also looks attractive due to its potential mass rollout in lower-income countries. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that Novavax is still a fledgling company compared to Pfizer's decades-old experience. Investors looking for a reliable stock with a strong dividend payout should buy Pfizer stock at its dips. Moreover, Pfizer stock has had a discernible long-term uptrend over the last five years. PFE stock looks like a solid anchor stock for any pharmaceutical investor, given its robust pipeline, immaculate execution, and stable profitability.</p>\n<p><i>Therefore, we rate both stocks at Buy.</i>However, we consider NVAX stock as more of a speculative play than a core anchor stock. Therefore, for investors who are more conservative, PFE stock might be a better buy. Nonetheless, NVAX stock could offer huge potential upside as a speculative stock in a well-diversified pharma portfolio.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 14:06 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472461-novavax-vs-pfizer-stock><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.\nPfizer recently filed for the Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 antiviral candidate, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472461-novavax-vs-pfizer-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472461-novavax-vs-pfizer-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143190844","content_text":"Summary\n\nPfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.\nPfizer recently filed for the Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 antiviral candidate, PAXLOVID, which is expected to bring in $24B in sales in FY22.\nNovavax obtained its regulatory approvals for NVX-CoV2373 in both Indonesia and the Philippines. The company can finally start fulfilling its $7B worth of purchase obligations.\nWe discuss which stock is the better buy for investors now.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nPfizer (PFE) expects to sell2.3B of its vaccines in FY2021, representing up to 44.5% of total projected sales of $82B. In addition, the company guided Cominarty sales to account for $36B of revenue in FY2021 and $29B in FY2022. Pfizer also recently submitted itsCOVID-19 Antiviral Candidate, PAXLOVID, for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in the US. PAXLOVID achieved89% efficacy in its clinical trials in reducing the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death. As a result,SVB Leerinkestimates PAXLOVID to bring in $24B of sales for Pfizer in FY2022.\nNovavax (NVAX) has$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to fulfill by FY2022. Novavax has also finally obtained its regulatory approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines while awaiting approvals in many other countries. Though Novavax has yet to submit for US FDA approval, we believe its vaccine could have more potential within the lower-income countries.\nWe discuss which stock is the better buy now.\nOmicron - The Variant Of Concern\nOn 14 November 2021, a new variant of the COVID-19 virus, B.1.1.529,Omicron, was detected in Gauteng, South Africa. Scientists hypothesized that the Omicron could be an escape variant due to the doubling of mutations compared to the Delta variant. As the most predominant strain globally,CDC reported that the Delta variant caused more infections and spread faster than its early forms. Some scientists have indicated that the high number of mutations may be linked to its resistance to antibodies and possibly be more contagious. Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said:\n\n Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees.\" (BBC)\n\nFurthermore, the new highly mutated virus is considerably different from those originally used to design the existing COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, there is a legitimate concern that Omicron may\"elude the targeted immune response\"by the current vaccines and be highly virulent. Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Britain's Warwick University, said,\n\n This new variant of the COVID-19 virus is very worrying. It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. Some of the mutations that are similar to changes we've seen in other variants of concern are associated with enhanced transmissibility and with partial resistance to immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection.\" (CNA)\n\nAs a result of the discovery, countries have placed travel restrictions on those arriving from Africa. It includes the US, EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and many others. In addition, the stock market has also been affected, especially those in the travel and hospitality industry. Many expect that the Omicron may cause another surge in lockdowns and further delay the global recovery from the pandemic. It is worrying indeed since international travel lanes have just reopened in early November 2021.\nNonetheless,Pfizer and BioNTechhave long prepared for the emergence of the supposed \"escape variant.\" \"Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) took actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days,\" the company said. In addition, Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AstraZeneca (AZN) have started their investigation on the efficacy of their vaccines against the new variant of concern. They expect to announce lab-based experimental results in two weeks.\nPfizer is The Market Leader in COVID-19 Vaccines\nPfizer Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nPfizer enjoyed immense growth in its revenue since the first distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020. In barely a year, Pfizer bulldozed its way into delivering2.11B doses of its COVID-19 vaccine. In doing so, the company has inoculated 13.3% of the world's population with two doses of Comirnaty.\nIn FQ3'21, Pfizer recorded $24.1B in revenue, representing a 233.9% YoY growth compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. In the same quarter, Pfizer also reported growth in other segments. In FQ3'21, the Oncology and Hospital segments reported 31.4% and 24% growth from FQ3'19 sales, respectively. Furthermore, Eliquis (oral anticoagulant from Internal Medicine) and IBRANCE (breast cancer treatment from Oncology) generated $1.34B and $1.38 in sales. It represented a 31.3% and 7.6% increase from FQ3'19, respectively. The growth for Eliquiswas due to a 16% increase in prescription volume, while IBRANCE was driven by deferred diagnosis and treatment caused by the pandemic.\nPfizer Revenue By Segment. Source: Company filings\nPfizer also expects additional revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine due to the US FDA approval of its pediatric application in ages five to eleven. As of 22 November 2021, the Canadian,Malaysian, and Singapore governments have already approved or procured Comirnaty for the pediatric age group. Many other countries globally are also considering Comirnatyfor its young children. As the market leader in the COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer will also report its clinical results for those aged two to five by Q4'21 and six months to two years old by Q1'22. Furthermore, booster shots have been approved by the USCDCandEU public health agency for all adults. It paves the way for a robust recurring revenue market for Pfizer.\nPfizer aims to distribute2.3B doses of its vaccines by the end of 2021, accounting for$36B of revenue. Furthermore, in FQ3'21, Pfizerraised its guidance for FY2021's total revenue to $81B to $82B. The difference is mainly attributed to robust sales in Comirnaty. The raised guidance also reflects the international community's confidence in Pfizer's vaccine.\nBut, consensus estimates expect Pfizer to post $81.3B in total revenue in FY2022, of which vaccine sales will account for $29B. The estimates suggest normalization in Comirnaty sales through FY2023, as COVID-19 becomes endemic.\nHowever, we expect additional upside to Pfizer's revenue attributed to its antiviral COVID-19 candidate and the possibility of Pfizer's adapted vaccine against the Omicron variant.\nPfizer Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOn 16 November 2021, Pfizer filed for EUA for PAXLOVID, its COVID-19 antiviral treatment. The treatment achieved 89% efficacy in clinical trials, which is better than Merck'sMolnupiravir at 30%. PAXLOVID's treatment is suitable for patients with mild to moderate symptoms, with a high risk of hospitalization or death. The US government also signed an Advanced Purchase Agreement(APA) for 10M doses, worth $529 per treatment course. The treatment may be delivered to the patients as early as Q4'21, upon FDA approval.SVB Leerinkestimated that PAXLOVID might account for an additional $24B in Pfizer's FY2022 revenue. Therefore, it could add further upside to Pfizer's vaccines revenue.\nFurthermore,Pfizer has licensed PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP), a United Nations-backed public health organization. It allows other generic drug manufacturers to produce the COVID-19 antiviral pill at lower prices. The reduced price will increase the pills' outreach to53% of the global population from 95 low- and middle-income countries.\nThus far, Pfizer has demonstrated exemplary execution.The company has managed to clear its clinical trials and the US FDA regulatory processes/ approvals speedily. In addition, no other COVID-19 vaccine makers have come close to the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership regarding its COVID-19 vaccines revenue. Its success is attributed to decades-old expertise and existing infrastructure in the Pharmaceuticals industry, paired with BioNTech's brilliant mRNA technology.\nMoreover, Pfizer has a solid portfolio of therapeutics, including Eliquis, IBRANCE, and the Prevnar family (Pneumococcal vaccine). These 3 drugs have accounted for $16.3B in revenue in the last twelve months (LTM).\nPfizer's Aggressive Product Pipeline\nPfizer continues to expand with94 programs in development. Of these, nine are in the registration stage, with 38 programs in phase 2/3 clinical trials. Furthermore, there are six mRNA programs in collaboration with BioNTech for COVID-19 vaccines and one directly under Pfizer for its mRNA Influenza vaccine (phase 1).\nPfizer has also acquired and collaborated with many companies in multiple specializations, such as oncology, gene therapy, and cardiovascular treatment, as part of its long-term expansion plan. These investments have resulted in three approvals and four Emergency Use Authorizations, with many more in research and development. Over the next 18 months, Pfizer also expectsten program approvals. In addition, since 2019, Pfizer has:\n\nAcquired Array BioPharma, a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company specializing in Oncology\nAcquired Therachon, a pre-revenue biotechnology company with interests in Achondroplasia and Short Bowel Syndrome\nAcquired Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL), a pre-revenue immuno-oncology company specializing in Oncology\nCollaborated with Vivet Therapeutics for research on Wilson disease gene therapy\nCollaborated with Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (AKCA) for the treatment of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases\nCollaborated with Valneva SE (OTCPK:INRLF) for the development of Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15\nCollaborated with Myovant Sciences Ltd. (MYOV) for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer\nCollaborated with Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) to treat breast cancer and improve the efficacy of IBRANCE (Pfizer's approved breast cancer treatment) for metastatic settings\n\nPfizer'spipelineincludesmultiple research and developmentsuch as:\n\nVaccines, including Prevnar 20 (Pneumococcal) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)\nOncology, including the breast, prostate, and blood cancer\nRare Diseases, including gene therapies for hemophilia A/B and Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy\nInternal Medicine, including diabetes\nImmunology and Inflammation, including rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and vitiligo\n\nBased on its existing portfolio and pipeline, Pfizer guided future revenue growth at a CAGR of 6% through FY2025. The guidance does not include its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, or potential earnings from future mRNA programs. Nevertheless, it shows that Pfizer is confident in its future growth despite the normalization from the Cominarty sales. With an arsenal of profitable therapeutics and promising research and development, Pfizer looks fantastic as an anchor investment for a pharmaceutical investor.\nNovavax's Nascent Foray into The BioTech Sector\nEmergency Use Authorisation Application. Source:Novavax\nNovavax has already obtained its EUA approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, in Indonesian 1 November 2021 and the Philippineson 17 November 2021. Furthermore, many other approvals are pending in the UK, Australia, Canada, Europe, WHO, India, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore. To prepare for the regulatory approval and potential rollout of its vaccines, Novavax has increased its manufacturing capacity in multiple territories, up to 150M vaccine doses a month. As a result, the company projected over2B doses to be distributed in FY2022. The established global supply chain for the production of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine includes:\n\nSerum Institute of India\nNovavax's site in the Czech Republic and Sweden\nSK Bioscience Co in South Korea\nTakeda Pharmaceutical Company in Japan\nBiofibre in Spain\nFujifilm in the US and UK\nMabion in Poland\nthe National Research Council in Poland and Canada\n\nNovavax Global Supply Chain. Source:Novavax\nNovavax Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn FQ3'21, Novavax reported$179M revenue. The number includes $98M from government contracts, $41M from CEPI grant revenue, and $40M from royalty revenue. The royalty revenue came from SK Biosciences' sales of NVX-CoV2373 antigen components to the government. Novavax is expected to report revenue of $1.4B for FY2021. The sales will include part of the$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to be shipped globally.\nNovavax Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nCurrently, Novavax has several COVID-19 clinical trials in progress globally. The US and Australian trial participants have received their booster shots at 6 and 12 months after the two-dose regimen. The company previously reported that the6 monthly boosters shot sufficiently increased the functional levels of wild-type neutralization and the IgG antibody. With such promising results, Novavax aims to complete its booster clinical trial for regulatory submissions as well.\nBy the end of 2021, Novavax aims to complete its regulatory submission globally, especially to the US FDA and EMA. In addition, the company will also proceed with the dosage selection for its combinedNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373clinical trial (to be further discussed later).\nNovavax's Robust Pipeline In Influenza\nBeyond its COVID-19 vaccine, Novavax has eight other programs in development. There are three in Phase 2/3 clinical stage, which are ResVax, RSV F, and NanoFlu. Both ResVax and RSV F targets Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in different age groups. However, both have not passed the necessary clinical test. Therefore, they also do not have the required efficacy for EMA & FDA approval.\nOn the other hand, NanoFlu has recorded top-line results for both clinical trialsagainstSanofi's approved flu vaccine Fluzone Quadrivalent. Sanofi is currently the largest manufacturer of influenza vaccines in the world. Notably, Sanofi supplied250 million doses of Influenza vaccines globally in 2020, worth$2.9B in sales. Therefore, Novavax may capitalize on a massive global Influenza market. As of early 2020, the US FDA has already granted NanoFlu a Fast Track Designation. In September 2021, Novavax also published the NanoFlu Influenza Vaccine Phase 3 Clinical Trial results. However, it remains to be seen when Novavax will file for US FDA approval and if it will be granted.\nFurthermore, in May 2021, Novavax announced the results of its combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373in a pre-clinical test. The combined vaccine is a potential breakthrough as an annual COVID-19 booster shot and Influenza vaccine. Phase III clinical (animal) trials have detected little virus or none in the upper and lower respiratory tracts. In September 2021, Novavax initiated the combined vaccine trial Phase I/II in Australia for 640 healthy adults aged 50 to 70 years. These participants had either been fully vaccinated or previously infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.\nIn November 2021, Novavax published the full results of a combined vaccine trial involving NVX-CoV2373 and an approved influenza vaccine from Seqirus UK Limited. It proves that there are no safety issues while relatively preserving the immune responses from both vaccines. As a result, the combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373may have a massive impact as the alternative to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, combined with a highly effective Influenza shot.\nCompared to Pfizer's pipeline, Novavax's pipeline appear to have more concentrated applications and less diversified. However, we cannot discount that Novavax has only started to get its momentum going while Pfizer is already leading the herd. They are at entirely different scales and timeline altogether. We believe that NanoFlu has shown great potential in its clinical trials. Upon regulatory approval, NanoFlu could generate substantial revenue from the global Influenza vaccines market, which is expected to exceed$9.5B by 2027.\nSo, Which Stock is The Better Buy?\nPfizer And Novavax EV/ Fwd Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nPfizer stock is currently trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.56x. It's significantly lower than its peers' comps set mean of 6.57x. Meanwhile, Novavax stock is trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.1x, considering the $7B purchase obligations. Furthermore, both are lower than Moderna stock at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 5.83x. As compared to Moderna and Pfizer stock, Novavax stock certainly looks like a huge bargain now.\nNovavax has already obtained its EUA approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines, with many more pending globally. Its stock also looks attractive due to its potential mass rollout in lower-income countries. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that Novavax is still a fledgling company compared to Pfizer's decades-old experience. Investors looking for a reliable stock with a strong dividend payout should buy Pfizer stock at its dips. Moreover, Pfizer stock has had a discernible long-term uptrend over the last five years. PFE stock looks like a solid anchor stock for any pharmaceutical investor, given its robust pipeline, immaculate execution, and stable profitability.\nTherefore, we rate both stocks at Buy.However, we consider NVAX stock as more of a speculative play than a core anchor stock. Therefore, for investors who are more conservative, PFE stock might be a better buy. Nonetheless, NVAX stock could offer huge potential upside as a speculative stock in a well-diversified pharma portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":42,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603086737"}
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