42a4eeda
2021-12-08
K
Why Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
4
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":602972401,"tweetId":"602972401","gmtCreate":1638965952148,"gmtModify":1638965952302,"author":{"id":3569281512419792,"idStr":"3569281512419792","authorId":3569281512419792,"authorIdStr":"3569281512419792","name":"42a4eeda","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>K</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>K</p></body></html>","text":"K","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602972401","repostId":1110807624,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110807624","pubTimestamp":1638965732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110807624?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 20:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110807624","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nLordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Lordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past but is moving forward with a new CEO.</li>\n <li>Commercial production of the Endurance electric truck is expected to begin in Q3 2022 and scale to ~30,000 trucks in 2023.</li>\n <li>But that's not nearly enough scale to reach profitability. Their financials suggest they will continue to burn cash for several years.</li>\n <li>Down more than 80% from highs, the stock still looks overvalued.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177cda1ae36b24dd7931e23fa6e9f667\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Lordstown's Rocky start</b></p>\n<p>Lordstown Motors (RIDE) is a pre-revenue EV company that is launching the Endurance electric truck next year with commercial production expected in Q3. That date was delayed from fall 2020 last year, and they were accused by a short-seller of faking or mispresenting some of the 100,000 pre-orders they claimed.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc55d82d6dcb02aa388fbd9af62089\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business Insider</span></p>\n<p>But that was under the previous CEO and founder Steve Burns who resigned in June. Lordstown brought in former Icahn Automotive CEO Daniel Ninivaggi as the new chief executive. There has only been a one-quarter delay in production since then.</p>\n<p>They recently entered a partnership with Foxconn, who will buy their production facility for $230 million and act as their contract manufacturer. This solves their near-term cash need but could lower their margin because Foxconn has to make a profit on each car as the manufacturer.</p>\n<p>With the stock down 80% from all-time highs and a market cap under $1B, you might expect this to be an undervalued stock in the EV sector. But the numbers suggest that even if they hit their production timeline, it won't justify their current valuation.</p>\n<p>\"Bull Case\" for Lordstown</p>\n<p>It's hard to make early-stage projections, but let's try being generous. Assume there are no more delays, and production is scaled to meet the higher end of wall street revenue estimates, which would be 35,000 cars x $55,000 = $1.9 billion of revenue in 2023. That sounds like a lot compared to their $800M market cap, but they're not in a high-margin business.</p>\n<p>Most automakers have gross margins in the 10-20% range, but trucks usually have a higher margin than other vehicles. So, assume Lordstown can match the 25% gross margin of the best-selling truck, the FordF-150. That also happens to be the approximate gross margin of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p>\n<p>That leaves them with $1.9B x 25% = $475 million of gross profit in 2023. The problem is that, just in 2021, they will spend $110M on selling, general and administrative expenses, another $330M on R&D, and $380M in capital expenditures. We could assume CapEx will be lower in the future because they are outsourcing production, but keep in mind that Foxconn will now make a profit on each car they produce, so it still ends up as a cost to Lordstown. Meaning that if CapEx is lower in the future because production is outsourced, the gross margin will likely be lower than 25%.</p>\n<p>Those numbers suggest Lordstown will be burning cash in 2023 even if costs remain flat, which is a generous assumption since they are trending upwards as the company grows.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3075377f53a7595962bd05cac35db301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>So, even if Lordstown meets the production schedule, can make the same margin as the most successful truck brands, and keep costs flat, they might lose $100M or more in 2023, which is still 2 years away.</p>\n<p><b>The Competition</b></p>\n<p>If they won't be profitable in the next several years, the $800M value of the company must be justified by growth in the years beyond. The production facility now owned by Foxconn is said to have a capacity of 400,000 vehicles, so if they could scale beyond 35,000 vehicles after 2023 and control costs they could eventually be profitable. But once production is no longer an issue, sales and margin will be. They have stiff competition. Most notable is Tesla's Cybertruck.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c0ffd71c607f7dc2fe449a168d3f15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: electrek.co</span></p>\n<p>Its production timeline is similar to Lordstown's Endurance - production beginning in 2022 and scaling in 2023. The caveat is that Tesla is a trillion-dollar company that has spent 2x Lordstown's current market cap just in R&D over the past twelve months. That wasn't all on the Cybertruck, but it shows how much bigger the competition is.</p>\n<p>Tesla is just the start. Rivian (RIVN) is another $90B market cap company launching an electric truck next year. Ford (F) expects to be producing 80,000 electric F150's in 2023, more than double Lordstown. General Motors (GM) is launching the first electric hummer this month and will bring an electric version of the Chevy Silverado to market in 2023.</p>\n<p>Rivian plans to scale production to 150,000 by late 2023. Ford expects 80,000. Elon Musk thinks Tesla can produce 200,000-300,000 Cybertrucks, but analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate more like 100,000. GM will likely be capable of 50,000-100,000. That's 300,000-500,000 units from those 4 alone compared to 3,000,000 in annual US pickup truck sales. Electric car adoption is currently only 2%(though growing fast) in the US, and those 4 competitors could have enough capacity for more than 10-15% of pickup sales to be electric by 2023.</p>\n<p>Ram, the second best-selling pickup truck brand, will launch an electric truck in 2024.Toyota(NYSE:TM) and Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY)are also planning full-electric trucks. All those entrants to the electric truck market could mean that even if demand grows rapidly, supply might be high enough that Lordstown will have poor margins or never generate enough demand to scale further.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Burn</b></p>\n<p>The other EV players are many times bigger than Lordstown and most importantly can easily access billions of investment capital. Lordstown has a fraction of the capital and will likely need to issue more shares in the future to raise cash.</p>\n<p>If they sell 15,000 cars in 2022 with a 25% gross profit margin, that's ~$200 million in gross profit. Their annual cost base is at least $400M ($110M SG&A + $200M R&D + >$100M CapEx). So, it's realistic to assume they earn $100-200M in gross profit and burn $200-300M in 2022.</p>\n<p>They have $220M on the balance sheet already and will make $200M from the sale of their facility to Foxconn by 2022. It's possible they go through most of that cash by the end of 2023 and need to raise more capital. There's no certainty they will be close to profitable by 2024, so they might need even more for the years after. At which point, they will still be a fraction of their competitors. The ultimate concern is that they won't be able to reach a profitable scale before their capital runs out.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Betting on Lordstown Motors doesn't seem worth the risk when they have to compete in a difficult industry with rivals that outmatch them in capacity, R&D, and access to capital. Even if they meet production targets without delay, they will lack scale and likely be unprofitable for many years. It seems like a long and unlikely road for this stock to succeed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-08 20:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474021-lordstown-motors-ride-stock-might-fall-further><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past but is moving forward with a new CEO.\nCommercial production of the Endurance electric truck is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474021-lordstown-motors-ride-stock-might-fall-further\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474021-lordstown-motors-ride-stock-might-fall-further","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110807624","content_text":"Summary\n\nLordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past but is moving forward with a new CEO.\nCommercial production of the Endurance electric truck is expected to begin in Q3 2022 and scale to ~30,000 trucks in 2023.\nBut that's not nearly enough scale to reach profitability. Their financials suggest they will continue to burn cash for several years.\nDown more than 80% from highs, the stock still looks overvalued.\n\nTasos Katopodis/Getty Images News\nLordstown's Rocky start\nLordstown Motors (RIDE) is a pre-revenue EV company that is launching the Endurance electric truck next year with commercial production expected in Q3. That date was delayed from fall 2020 last year, and they were accused by a short-seller of faking or mispresenting some of the 100,000 pre-orders they claimed.\nSource: Business Insider\nBut that was under the previous CEO and founder Steve Burns who resigned in June. Lordstown brought in former Icahn Automotive CEO Daniel Ninivaggi as the new chief executive. There has only been a one-quarter delay in production since then.\nThey recently entered a partnership with Foxconn, who will buy their production facility for $230 million and act as their contract manufacturer. This solves their near-term cash need but could lower their margin because Foxconn has to make a profit on each car as the manufacturer.\nWith the stock down 80% from all-time highs and a market cap under $1B, you might expect this to be an undervalued stock in the EV sector. But the numbers suggest that even if they hit their production timeline, it won't justify their current valuation.\n\"Bull Case\" for Lordstown\nIt's hard to make early-stage projections, but let's try being generous. Assume there are no more delays, and production is scaled to meet the higher end of wall street revenue estimates, which would be 35,000 cars x $55,000 = $1.9 billion of revenue in 2023. That sounds like a lot compared to their $800M market cap, but they're not in a high-margin business.\nMost automakers have gross margins in the 10-20% range, but trucks usually have a higher margin than other vehicles. So, assume Lordstown can match the 25% gross margin of the best-selling truck, the FordF-150. That also happens to be the approximate gross margin of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nThat leaves them with $1.9B x 25% = $475 million of gross profit in 2023. The problem is that, just in 2021, they will spend $110M on selling, general and administrative expenses, another $330M on R&D, and $380M in capital expenditures. We could assume CapEx will be lower in the future because they are outsourcing production, but keep in mind that Foxconn will now make a profit on each car they produce, so it still ends up as a cost to Lordstown. Meaning that if CapEx is lower in the future because production is outsourced, the gross margin will likely be lower than 25%.\nThose numbers suggest Lordstown will be burning cash in 2023 even if costs remain flat, which is a generous assumption since they are trending upwards as the company grows.\nData by YCharts\nSo, even if Lordstown meets the production schedule, can make the same margin as the most successful truck brands, and keep costs flat, they might lose $100M or more in 2023, which is still 2 years away.\nThe Competition\nIf they won't be profitable in the next several years, the $800M value of the company must be justified by growth in the years beyond. The production facility now owned by Foxconn is said to have a capacity of 400,000 vehicles, so if they could scale beyond 35,000 vehicles after 2023 and control costs they could eventually be profitable. But once production is no longer an issue, sales and margin will be. They have stiff competition. Most notable is Tesla's Cybertruck.\nSource: electrek.co\nIts production timeline is similar to Lordstown's Endurance - production beginning in 2022 and scaling in 2023. The caveat is that Tesla is a trillion-dollar company that has spent 2x Lordstown's current market cap just in R&D over the past twelve months. That wasn't all on the Cybertruck, but it shows how much bigger the competition is.\nTesla is just the start. Rivian (RIVN) is another $90B market cap company launching an electric truck next year. Ford (F) expects to be producing 80,000 electric F150's in 2023, more than double Lordstown. General Motors (GM) is launching the first electric hummer this month and will bring an electric version of the Chevy Silverado to market in 2023.\nRivian plans to scale production to 150,000 by late 2023. Ford expects 80,000. Elon Musk thinks Tesla can produce 200,000-300,000 Cybertrucks, but analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate more like 100,000. GM will likely be capable of 50,000-100,000. That's 300,000-500,000 units from those 4 alone compared to 3,000,000 in annual US pickup truck sales. Electric car adoption is currently only 2%(though growing fast) in the US, and those 4 competitors could have enough capacity for more than 10-15% of pickup sales to be electric by 2023.\nRam, the second best-selling pickup truck brand, will launch an electric truck in 2024.Toyota(NYSE:TM) and Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY)are also planning full-electric trucks. All those entrants to the electric truck market could mean that even if demand grows rapidly, supply might be high enough that Lordstown will have poor margins or never generate enough demand to scale further.\nCash Burn\nThe other EV players are many times bigger than Lordstown and most importantly can easily access billions of investment capital. Lordstown has a fraction of the capital and will likely need to issue more shares in the future to raise cash.\nIf they sell 15,000 cars in 2022 with a 25% gross profit margin, that's ~$200 million in gross profit. Their annual cost base is at least $400M ($110M SG&A + $200M R&D + >$100M CapEx). So, it's realistic to assume they earn $100-200M in gross profit and burn $200-300M in 2022.\nThey have $220M on the balance sheet already and will make $200M from the sale of their facility to Foxconn by 2022. It's possible they go through most of that cash by the end of 2023 and need to raise more capital. There's no certainty they will be close to profitable by 2024, so they might need even more for the years after. At which point, they will still be a fraction of their competitors. The ultimate concern is that they won't be able to reach a profitable scale before their capital runs out.\nConclusion\nBetting on Lordstown Motors doesn't seem worth the risk when they have to compete in a difficult industry with rivals that outmatch them in capacity, R&D, and access to capital. Even if they meet production targets without delay, they will lack scale and likely be unprofitable for many years. It seems like a long and unlikely road for this stock to succeed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/602972401"}
精彩评论