MorphyInc
2021-12-03
At least some good news
November jobs report preview: Payrolls likely grew by 548,000 as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%
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And with labor shortages still rampant, economists are also predicting another hot print on wage growth.</p>\n<p>The Labor Department is set to release its November jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the print based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Non-farm payrolls: </b>+548,000 expected, +531,000 in October</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Unemployment rate: </b>4.5% expected, 4.6% in October</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: </b>0.4% expected, 0.4% in October</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: </b>5.0% expected, 4.9% in October</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>U.S. employers have added back jobs on net in every month so far in 2021 as vaccinations, reopenings and a recovery in the high-contact services industries helped boost hiring. At 550,000, the expected non-farm payrolls increase for November would mark a back-to-back month that job gains came in above the psychologically important half-million level. It would also represent the most jobs added back since July.</p>\n<p>But despite the solid rehiring throughout the year, labor force participation remains short of pre-pandemic levels. As of October, the civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants, compared to February 2020. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but still coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p>\n<p>Economists have attributed the stubbornly depressed participation rate to a host of factors, including lingering concerns about COVID-19 infections, difficulties finding child care and a desire by many workers to leave their jobs and pursue roles with more flexibility, wages or benefits. With the latest emergence of the Omicron variant, these myriad factors may further inhibit a rebound in labor force participation.</p>\n<p>\"Labor supply shortages do not show material signs of improvement, and could actually worsen in coming months with the federal vaccine mandate taking effect on January 4, 2022. As such, labor market conditions should remain tight, perpetuating strong wage growth,\" Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist for Wells Fargo, wrote in an email. \"On balance, robust labor demand and further COVID improvements should support strong labor market gains last month, though we are mindful of the challenges the are likely to persist in the labor market for the foreseeable future.\"</p>\n<p>As worker demand remains elevated, wages have also risen and contributed to the inflation seen across the economy this year. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise for an eighth straight month. And on a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings likely accelerated by 5.0%, or the most since February.</p>\n<p>These inflationary trends have also been reflected in other recent economic data. The government's latest report on October core personal consumption expenditures, or the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of 4.1% year-over-year – the most in three decades.</p>\n<p>And key members of the Fed have signaled they are inclined to shift their focus to staving off inflation, even as the labor force participation and unemployment rates have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that the central bank's asset-purchase tapering program could end \"a few months early,\" voicing confidence that the economic recovery had progressed enough to warrant a quicker end to the bank's crisis-era support.</p>\n<p>\"Fed Chair Powell was right to hint the central bank might speed up the tapering process because a tight labor market means increasing wage demands will stoke the fires of inflation,\" said Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBONDS, in an email. \"The central bank has misread the economic tea leaves before, claiming erroneously the labor market still had slack remaining, and Fed officials run the risk of downplaying the inflation dangers out there again.\"</p>\n<p>And heading into Friday's report, other labor market data have also underscored the present tightness of the labor market. ADP's jobs report on Wednesday, while an imperfect indicator of the monthly government data, nevertheless showed an encouragingly stronger-than-expected rise in private-sector employment growth last month. And weekly jobless claims from the Labor Department slid to the lowest level in 52 years during the survey week for the monthly jobs report, presaging a potentially strong payrolls print.</p>\n<p>\"While the backdrop of uncertainty regarding Omicron definitely isn’t helping the market, we’re getting some relatively positive news on the labor market front,\" said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment management at E-Trade Financial, in an email. \"With ADP and jobless claims coming in better than expected, we’ll have to see if the full employment picture tomorrow can carry the torch to continue the forward momentum when it comes to jobs.\"</p>\n<p>\"That said, these numbers are backward looking, so with the new variant coming to light only in the past week, it remains to be seen how it could play a role in effecting the workforce and our economic recovery at large,\" Loewengart added.</p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovember jobs report preview: Payrolls likely grew by 548,000 as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 10:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-payrolls-labor-department-2021-195757677.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The November jobs report is expected to underscore the tightness of the present labor market, with payroll gains accelerating slightly and the unemployment rate ticking down further during the month. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-payrolls-labor-department-2021-195757677.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-payrolls-labor-department-2021-195757677.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188351763","content_text":"The November jobs report is expected to underscore the tightness of the present labor market, with payroll gains accelerating slightly and the unemployment rate ticking down further during the month. And with labor shortages still rampant, economists are also predicting another hot print on wage growth.\nThe Labor Department is set to release its November jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the print based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:\n\nNon-farm payrolls: +548,000 expected, +531,000 in October\nUnemployment rate: 4.5% expected, 4.6% in October\nAverage hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.4% expected, 0.4% in October\nAverage hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.0% expected, 4.9% in October\n\nU.S. employers have added back jobs on net in every month so far in 2021 as vaccinations, reopenings and a recovery in the high-contact services industries helped boost hiring. At 550,000, the expected non-farm payrolls increase for November would mark a back-to-back month that job gains came in above the psychologically important half-million level. It would also represent the most jobs added back since July.\nBut despite the solid rehiring throughout the year, labor force participation remains short of pre-pandemic levels. As of October, the civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants, compared to February 2020. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but still coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.\nEconomists have attributed the stubbornly depressed participation rate to a host of factors, including lingering concerns about COVID-19 infections, difficulties finding child care and a desire by many workers to leave their jobs and pursue roles with more flexibility, wages or benefits. With the latest emergence of the Omicron variant, these myriad factors may further inhibit a rebound in labor force participation.\n\"Labor supply shortages do not show material signs of improvement, and could actually worsen in coming months with the federal vaccine mandate taking effect on January 4, 2022. As such, labor market conditions should remain tight, perpetuating strong wage growth,\" Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist for Wells Fargo, wrote in an email. \"On balance, robust labor demand and further COVID improvements should support strong labor market gains last month, though we are mindful of the challenges the are likely to persist in the labor market for the foreseeable future.\"\nAs worker demand remains elevated, wages have also risen and contributed to the inflation seen across the economy this year. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise for an eighth straight month. And on a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings likely accelerated by 5.0%, or the most since February.\nThese inflationary trends have also been reflected in other recent economic data. The government's latest report on October core personal consumption expenditures, or the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of 4.1% year-over-year – the most in three decades.\nAnd key members of the Fed have signaled they are inclined to shift their focus to staving off inflation, even as the labor force participation and unemployment rates have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that the central bank's asset-purchase tapering program could end \"a few months early,\" voicing confidence that the economic recovery had progressed enough to warrant a quicker end to the bank's crisis-era support.\n\"Fed Chair Powell was right to hint the central bank might speed up the tapering process because a tight labor market means increasing wage demands will stoke the fires of inflation,\" said Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBONDS, in an email. \"The central bank has misread the economic tea leaves before, claiming erroneously the labor market still had slack remaining, and Fed officials run the risk of downplaying the inflation dangers out there again.\"\nAnd heading into Friday's report, other labor market data have also underscored the present tightness of the labor market. ADP's jobs report on Wednesday, while an imperfect indicator of the monthly government data, nevertheless showed an encouragingly stronger-than-expected rise in private-sector employment growth last month. And weekly jobless claims from the Labor Department slid to the lowest level in 52 years during the survey week for the monthly jobs report, presaging a potentially strong payrolls print.\n\"While the backdrop of uncertainty regarding Omicron definitely isn’t helping the market, we’re getting some relatively positive news on the labor market front,\" said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment management at E-Trade Financial, in an email. \"With ADP and jobless claims coming in better than expected, we’ll have to see if the full employment picture tomorrow can carry the torch to continue the forward momentum when it comes to jobs.\"\n\"That said, these numbers are backward looking, so with the new variant coming to light only in the past week, it remains to be seen how it could play a role in effecting the workforce and our economic recovery at large,\" Loewengart added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/601128813"}
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